Australian Treasurer Chalmers said on Sunday that this week’s federal budget is expected to help ease the country’s stubbornly high inflation as many Australians continue to deal with cost-of-living pressures.Economists at the Reserve Bank of Australia forecast that consumer inflation would rise to 3.8% in June from 3.6% in the first quarter and remain at that level until the end of the year, highlighting local inflation challenges. Since May 2022, the central bank has responded to persistently high inflation by raising interest rates by 425 basis points to a 12-year high of 4.35%.Chalmers said the budget due to be published on Tuesday would be “primarily, but not exclusively, focused on inflation”. “The budget will be a responsible budget that will ease cost of living pressures and invest in the future of Australian manufacturing,” he added.Officials said on Tuesday the budget would focus on housing as rising rents, rising interest rates and soaring costs of living in recent years have exacerbated what was already the world’s most unaffordable rental market. Chalmers said the government would chart a responsible middle path in a budget that would put it on track for a second surplus despite more spending measures.
澳洲財長查爾默斯週日表示,預計本週的聯邦預算將有助於緩解該國頑固的高通膨,因為許多澳洲人仍在應對生活成本壓力。澳洲儲備銀行經濟學家預測,第一季消費者通膨率為 3.6%,到 6 月將升至 3.8%,並保持在這一水平直至年底,凸顯了本土通膨挑戰。自2022年5月以來,央行透過升息425個基點至12年高點4.35%來應對持續高企的通膨。查爾默斯表示,將於週二公佈的預算將「主要關注通膨,但不是唯一關注點」。他補充說:“預算將是一個負責任的預算,它將緩解生活成本壓力,並將投資於澳大利亞製造的未來。”官員週二表示,預算將重點關注住房問題,因為近年來租金上漲、利率上漲和生活成本飆升,加劇了全球本已最難負擔的房屋租賃市場。查爾默斯表示,政府將在預算中製定一條負責任的中間道路,儘管採取了更多支出措施,但仍有望實現第二次盈餘。
过去一周美国未有重要经济数据公布,导至黄金上周早段走势相当窄幅。 直至周四美国公布新申请失业救济,最新数字是2023年8月以来最差,令金价上破阻力2328(1)升至前周高位2350。 周五早段买盘持续,再破中线阻力(2),触发第二轮买盘。 在美盘开市前达一周高位2378,最终收盘在2360。 本周需留意周二晚美联储主席鲍威尔讲话及周三美核心通胀数字。 鲍威尔讲话或会承接二周前会后声明偏向中性。 市场的不确定性在周三的美核心通胀数据,现时市场预期周三的核心通胀偏向回软,金价在数据分布前或会再试上周高位。
1小时图 – 上升趋势在上周四加快,突破前周高位2350-52(3)阻力。 形态上,只要金价在2350(3)之上,趋势将继续以上升为主。 金价需跌穿2350(3),才能正式确应趋势改变。 而直至转势讯号出现,本周初高位目标会在上周高位2378-80。 若美通胀数字进一步放缓,金价或会测试2400附近。
日线图 – 黄金虽2次弹上2400之上,留意金价从来未试过停留在2385以上超过1天(5),明显沽空阻力在2385(6)出现。 而上周五金价的冲高回落,在日线图已形成沽空讯号(7),只要金价失守2350-52(8)支持,下方目标可先留意20天移动平均线2335附近。
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過去一週美國未有重要經濟數據公佈,導至黃金上週早段走勢相當窄幅。直至週四美國公佈新申請失業救濟,最新數字是2023年8月以來最差,令金價上破阻力2328(1)升至前週高位2350。週五早段買盤持續,再破中線阻力(2),觸發第二輪買盤。在美盤開市前達一週高位2378,最終收盤在2360。本週需留意週二晚美聯儲主席鮑威爾講話及週三美核心通脹數字。鮑威爾講話或會承接二週前會後聲明偏向中性。市場的不確定性在週三的美核心通脹數據,現時市場預期週三的核心通脹偏向回軟,金價在數據分佈前或會再試上週高位。
1小時圖 – 上升趨勢在上週四加快,突破前週高位2350-52(3)阻力。形態上,只要金價在2350(3)之上,趨勢將繼續以上升為主。金價需跌穿2350(3),才能正式確應趨勢改變。而直至轉勢訊號出現,本週初高位目標會在上週高位2378-80。若美通脹數字進一步放緩,金價或會測試2400附近。
日線圖 – 黃金雖2次彈上2400之上,留意金價從來未試過停留在2385以上超過1天(5),明顯沽空阻力在2385(6)出現。而上週五金價的沖高回落,在日線圖已形成沽空訊號(7),只要金價失守2350-52(8)支持,下方目標可先留意20天移動平均線2335附近。
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周一升穿2320后,由下行震荡演变成横行,跌势开始减慢。 周二至周四价格一直在横行的上半部做窄幅震荡,向上突破机会变后较大。 周四美盘向上突破后回测横行顶,中长线可能是一个不错的入市机会,因为如有力上破大型下跌通道,将有机会延续早前升势,但都要提防到通道顶后又反弹 下跌,所以第一关先看2374附近,这是横行1:1的高度,通道顶和前双底的位置。 周五美盘价格到了2378后回调,5M图可见做了一个小型头肩顶后,有力下破和回测,短线也是不错的入市位,但由于上升动力都几强,到前顶2357后最好减仓或平仓。现价2360,从4H看周五上升的动能强劲,会倾向上看,但由于现时位于通道顶,要做小型震荡后上破或回调到横行顶先上都有可能,所以要看周一开市后 怎样行。 如向上有力破前顶2378企稳,下关就看2400,如向下行跌穿2356,就有机会去返横行顶2330。K.LAM风险提示: 场外式黄金/白银交易涉及高度风险,未必适合所有投资者。 高度的杠杆可为阁下带来负面或正面的影响。 阁下在决定买卖场外式黄金/白银之前应审慎考虑自己的投资目标、交易经验以及风险接受程度。 可能出现的情况包括蒙受部分或全部初始投资额的损失,或在极端情况下(例如相关市场跳空)产生更多的损失。 因此,阁下不应将无法承受损失的资金用于投资。 投资应知悉买卖场外式黄金/白银有关的一切风险,如有需要,请向独立财务顾问寻求意见。 市场资料仅供参考,MAX Online 绝不保证分析内容的准确性。
Data released by Japan show that Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages fell by 2.5% annually in March, falling for two consecutive years. The data showed the pace of decline accelerated from 1.8% last month as rising costs of living outpaced nominal wages. Japan is seeing early signs of a virtuous cycle of rising wages and inflation. However, workers’ incomes still lag behind rising costs, underscoring the challenges policymakers face in getting companies to raise wages.Some economists say they expect real wages to turn positive sometime in the 2024/25 financial year. Nominal wages, the average total cash earnings per worker, rose 0.6% to 301,193 yen ($1,940.30), a slowdown from 1.4% in February. On the other hand, consumer prices increased by 3.1% year-on-year in March, slightly slower than the 3.3% increase in February, hovering above the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target and price growth. Of total cash receipts, regular wages, which determine basic wages, increased by 1.7%, while overtime wages fell by 1.5%, falling for the fourth consecutive month. Special payments such as bonuses and other benefits in March are reduced by 9.4% annually.At annual labor talks this year, Japan’s major companies offered to raise workers’ monthly wages by more than 5 percent, a level not seen in about three decades. But small businesses, which employ seven in 10 workers, are lagging behind, holding back wage gains. Low-wage informal workers also make up about 40% of the workforce. The specter of sluggish wage growth is dashing policymakers’ hopes of achieving healthy economic growth led by durable inflation and stable wages, which are considered a prerequisite for normalizing monetary policy.
日本公布的数据显示,日本 3 月经通膨调整后的实质薪资年减 2.5%,连续两年下降。 数据显示,由于生活成本上涨超过了名目工资,下降速度较上月的 1.8% 有所加快。 日本正在看到实现薪资上涨和通膨良性循环的早期迹象。 然而,工人的收入仍落后于成本的上涨,凸显了政策制定者在让企业提高薪资方面所面临的挑战。一些经济学家表示,他们预计实际工资将在 2024/25 财年的某个时候转正。 名目薪资,即每名工人的平均现金总收入,成长 0.6% 至 301,193 日圆(1,940.30 美元),较 2 月的 1.4% 有所放缓。 另一方面,3月消费者物价年增3.1%,较2月的3.3%略有放缓,徘徊在日本央行2%通膨目标和物价涨幅之上。 在现金收入总额中,决定基本工资的定期工资增加了1.7%,而加班工资下降了1.5%,连续第四个月下降。 3月份奖金和其他福利等特殊付款年减9.4%。在今年的年度劳资谈判中,日本主要企业提出将工人的月薪提高超过 5%,这是大约三十年来从未见过的水平。 但雇用十分之七员工的小企业却落后了,阻碍了薪资上涨的步伐。 低薪非正规工人也占劳动力的40%左右。 薪资成长乏力的幽灵正在粉碎政策制定者实现由持久通膨和稳定工资带动的良性经济成长的希望,而这被认为是货币政策正常化的先决条件。
日本公佈的數據顯示,日本 3 月經通膨調整後的實質薪資年減 2.5%,連續兩年下降。數據顯示,由於生活成本上漲超過了名目工資,下降速度較上月的 1.8% 有所加快。日本正在看到實現薪資上漲和通膨良性循環的早期跡象。 然而,工人的收入仍落後於成本的上漲,凸顯了政策制定者在讓企業提高薪資方面所面臨的挑戰。一些經濟學家表示,他們預計實際工資將在 2024/25 財年的某個時候轉正。名目薪資,即每名工人的平均現金總收入,成長 0.6% 至 301,193 日圓(1,940.30 美元),較 2 月的 1.4% 有所放緩。另一方面,3月消費者物價年增3.1%,較2月的3.3%略有放緩,徘徊在日本央行2%通膨目標和物價漲幅之上。在現金收入總額中,決定基本工資的定期工資增加了1.7%,而加班工資下降了1.5%,連續第四個月下降。3月份獎金和其他福利等特殊付款年減9.4%。在今年的年度勞資談判中,日本主要企業提出將工人的月薪提高超過 5%,這是大約三十年來從未見過的水平。但僱用十分之七員工的小企業卻落後了,阻礙了薪資上漲的步伐。 低薪非正規工人也佔勞動力的40%左右。薪資成長乏力的幽靈正在粉碎政策制定者實現由持久通膨和穩定工資帶動的良性經濟成長的希望,而這被認為是貨幣政策正常化的先決條件。
上周一开市后,价格去到之前提及的2320停下并出现反弹力量,5M图看到反弹后升穿下跌结构,并回调到0.618位置附近又再延续上升,短线向上做是一个不错的 入市位。 可惜最后未能到达前双顶位置,只到了上升通道的中线就出现较强的下跌力量,短线的可在这减仓或平仓,因为在震荡范围未有明显方向下应积极做仓位管理。周二跌穿小型上升通道后,直至周末价格都在2325-2383内震荡,但可以见到不断出LOWER HIGH,型态上又是一个小下跌通道,短线都是留意通道顶底和假突破位 2309,不过向下做仓要留意2266,因为在小时图级别都算是明显的支持,而且和下跌通道底重叠,如下周在这出现明显的反弹或直接升穿小下跌通道,中长线可能是一个 向上做仓的机会,但如果跌穿了就大机会到下个支持位2228。K.LAM风险提示: 场外式黄金/白银交易涉及高度风险,未必适合所有投资者。 高度的杠杆可为阁下带来负面或正面的影响。 阁下在决定买卖场外式黄金/白银之前应审慎考虑自己的投资目标、交易经验以及风险接受程度。 可能出现的情况包括蒙受部分或全部初始投资额的损失,或在极端情况下(例如相关市场跳空)产生更多的损失。 因此,阁下不应将无法承受损失的资金用于投资。 投资应知悉买卖场外式黄金/白银有关的一切风险,如有需要,请向独立财务顾问寻求意见。 市场资料仅供参考,MAX Online 绝不保证分析内容的准确性。
The government said on Sunday that a weakening global economy and a slowdown at home were among the reasons Australia reported a smaller increase in federal budget revenue for the year to June 30 than in recent years. The Labor government is expected to report a budget surplus on May 14, although it said in March that revenue growth would be smaller than a year earlier due to lower commodity prices and a weaker labor market. On Sunday, it said the tax revenue hikes in the budget, which excludes levies from the goods and services tax, are expected to be more than A$100 billion ($66.08 billion) higher than the average hike of A$129 billion in the past three budgets.The expected results are due to a weakening global economy, a slowdown in the domestic economy, a weak labor market and falling commodity prices, the report said. “We are realistic about the challenges facing the economy and budget, including that the kind of large-scale revenue upgrade we saw in the recent budget update will not continue,” Finance Minister Jim Chalmers said in a statement. Chalmers has previously cited weak commodity prices, particularly for key export iron ore, and rising unemployment as key drivers of the change. Australia’s unemployment rate reached 4.1% in January, a two-year high. In April, he warned that events in the Middle East had heightened concerns about the global economy and would impact the government’s budget in May.