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The gold price was unstoppable last week. It broke clear the December high of 2088 and surpassed the historical high of 2147. On Friday, even with better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, it continued to rise before the market closed, reaching a new all-time high of 2195. This week, the US will release core CPI and retail sales data on Tuesday and Thursday, if inflation slows down and the data disappoints, we can expect the gold price to continue its upward movement.

1-hr Chart – The gold price was rejected by 2190(1) again during the Asian session today. Since breaking through the resistance at 2147-2150 last week, an S-T upward channel(3) has formed in the past 48 hours. If the gold price breaks below the upward channel(3) after Tuesday’s data, the trading range can be set between 2155-85(2).

Daily Chart – After breaking through the December high of 2088 (4) last week, gold officially began its uptrend. The upside target 2190, estimated based on the previous consolidation range of 1:1 (4.1), has been reached. As the gold price is approaching the upper resistance of the M-T upward channel(5), the gold price has pullback(6) before the market closed on Friday. Keep an eye out; it would be the first signal of another surge if the gold price closes above 2178 on the daily chart in the next 2 days. Otherwise, a retreatment toward 2147-50 will begin.

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A series of US data was released last week. The durable goods orders and 4Q GDP announced early on Tue’s and Wed’s were both below market expectations. However, the price of gold remained in a narrow range. It wasn’t until Thur’s release of the core PCE price index that the gold price finally broke clear the resistance zone of 2035-40. On Fri, a new round of buying was triggered after a weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI pushed the price to the recent high of 2088.

The latest CME FedWatch indicates that the probability of a rate cut in May is now around 27%, while the likelihood for June has risen to around 70%. The rate cut news/rumours will push the gold price higher, however, the 2088 resistance still needs to be clear. Once the price passes 2088, the 1st target can be set at around 2045. A strict stop-loss order should be in place if you choose to short-selling above 2080.

1-Hour Chart – Gold has triggered a round of buying after escaping the triangle pattern (1) last Thur. The upward momentum has accelerated on Fri’s US session, passing the early Feb high of 2065(2) and reaching the Dec high of 2088(3). The buying momentum failed to carry on at the early Asian session back from the weekend. A high-volume market condition is needed for gold to clear the 2088 resistance, pay attention to Tue’s non-manufacturing PMI, Wed.’s Powell speech. Consider the trading range of 2065-88(4) for now.

Daily Chart – Gold escapes downward channel (4) last week, and the M-T trend shifted from a downtrend to a sideways consolidation, where the range has expanded from 1985-2065(5) to 1985-2088(5.1). The price needs to break above 2088 in terms of structure to initiate a new round of buying orders.

S-T ressitance 3

2100

S-T ressitance 2

2095

S-T ressitance 1

2085-88

Market price

2080

S-T support 1

2070

S-T support 2

2065

S-T support 3

2018-20

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Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

The expectation of the Fed’s interest rate cuts continues to support the fundamentals of the gold price. However, since the market kept delaying the rate cuts schedule without significant economic news, gold was traded sideways above 2020 last week. More news is expected this week, with the US announcing durable goods orders, 4Q GDP, PCE inflation, and manufacturing PMI. Regardless of whether the data is better or worse than expectations, the daily price fluctuations of gold should be widened toward around the $20 range. Considering the current market sentiment, unless these data significantly exceed expectations, it will not be easy for gold to break free from the current sideway sentiment. Therefore, we can continue to take advantage of the 2015-2040 range this week.

1hr chart – Last week, the daily price fluctuations of gold expanded from a narrow range at the beginning of the week to a broader USD 25 range (1) near the week’s end. The market dynamics should be similar to last Fri. on data release days this week. The resistance zone around 2035-2040 is still valid, and the day trading strategy should continue to be based on the range of 2015-40.

Daily Chart – After the rejection of 2041 on Friday, the rebounding cycle from the bottom of the downward channel(3) is getting close to an end. Short-selling near 2040 in the next 1-2 days will be ideal if the gold price is to touch 2040 again. Once the price falls below the 20-day ma(4) near the end of this week, the adjustment target can be set at 2010 or even lower for next week.

S-T ressitance 3

2045

S-T ressitance 2

2040

S-T ressitance 1

2035

Market price

2031

S-T support 1

2030

S-T support 2

2025

S-T support 3

2018-20

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Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

Gold price rallied from a 3-month low last week. The US core inflation rate came in higher than expected, causing the gold price to break below the critical support level of 2000 and drop close to 1980. However, the release of the disappointing US retail sales data pushed the gold price back above 2000 (1) on Thu., ending the week near 2013. The main event on the economic calendar this week will be the release of the US Fed. Meeting minutes on Wed. Not expecting any surprising content, the dominant factors will remain to be “observing the data,” “waiting for more evidence,” and “the timing of rate cuts being slower than market expectations,” which are mostly bearish for gold, pulling the gold price down in S-T.

1-hour chart – An S-T upward channel(3) has formed in the past 24 hours. At the Asian session today, the gold price has broken through the previously mentioned downward resistance(2) and resistance zone (2.1). There are signs of accelerating buying pressure, and the price has already moved above the channel(3). The S-T target can be set at last Tue’s high near 2028(4), where the next upside target is at the resistance zone (5). With the US holiday on Monday, the market volume may be reduced. Tentatively, the trading range for this week can be set between 2000-40.

Daily Chart – Last week’s downward channel (7) is still valid, and some S-T resistance from the 20-day MA(6) is expected. The overall structure has transformed from a sideways consolidation (8) to a downward correction (7) after the release of US inflation data last week.

S-T ressitance 3

2030

S-T ressitance 2

2023

S-T ressitance 1

2020

Market price

2018

S-T support 1

2015

S-T support 2

2010

S-T support 3

2002

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Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

Keep an eye on the gold price for a downward adjustment after the US CPI this week.

The gold market was relatively calm last week; the trading volume of COMEX gold futures noticeably declined, dropping from an average daily volume of over 200,000 contracts in Jan. to only 140,000 since the beginning of the week. Adding that no significant economic data was being released, the price mainly bounced within the range of 2020-2040(1). As expected, we hope everyone took advantage of the situation✊. The trend hasn’t changed much after a week of sideways movement. The key focus this week, without a doubt, is the US CPI data on Tuesday. I expect the data to push the gold price higher towards the resistance zone around 2035-2040(3). Whether it can jump across 2050 will very much depend on whether the data release brings any surprises. On the other hand, according to CME’s FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in March has decreased to around 60%, so the chances of gold reaching new highs in the S-T are slim. The S-T price will likely continue oscillating within the sideway range… but still be mindful of a potential deeper consolidating cycle.

1-hour chart – We can continue utilizing the 2020-40(1) range for S-T. Keep an eye on the downward resistance line formed last week(2). If the price breaks above this resistance line within the next 48 hours, it will trigger a round of buying orders, and the price may reach once again the 2040 resistance zone (3). The key support level below is at 2015.

Daily chart – Although the upward trendline (4) is still valid, the probability of a rate cut in May is declining. Unless US inflation significantly slows down in the next two weeks, it will be difficult for the gold price to maintain its current upward movement above the trendline(4). If the gold price falls below the support line (4) in this week, it will trigger a round of selling, and the price is likely to test the bottom of the 2002-2065 range (5) again.

S-T ressitance 3

2040

S-T ressitance 2

2035

S-T ressitance 1

2030

Market price

2024

S-T support 1

2020

S-T support 2

2015

S-T support 3

2008-10

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Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

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