Technical Analysis

Despite the initial drop on Monday, the gold price was relatively quiet last week.

The price shot up to around 2710 due to all the geopolitical tensions the week before. But then, it quickly retreated after an uneventful weekend. The risk premium dramatically reduced as the Asian market opened on Monday, leading to gold prices falling below 2700 early in the session. During the U.S. trading session on the same day, Trump announced the preliminary tariff policies on China, Canada, and Mexico via social media. The market anticipated a continued high-interest environment in the U.S. until 2025, exerting pressure on gold prices once more, causing them to dip below 2650(1). Gold prices stabilized thereafter, with a holiday atmosphere prevailing, prices rebounded throughout the week, closing near 2650.

Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations in the past couple of weeks due to the Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Palestine situations. However, as tensions ease, the upward momentum for price has waned. Heading into the final month of 2024, the gold market continues to be influenced by profit-taking sentiments, as the number of open interests in COMEX gold futures dropped, from 560,000 in early November to 450,000 last Friday. Unless there are significant changes in the fundamentals, gold prices are expected to keep consolidating.

This week, the focus will be on Friday’s US employment data, with market expectations suggesting a rebound in non-farm payrolls to 200,000. Gold prices are likely to face some pressure before the data is released.

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1-hr chart(above) > Early in the Asian session today, the S-T trend turned bearish as the gold prices dipped below the support line(2). Strong selling resistance appeared near 2665 at the end of last week, suggesting initial operations within the 2600-2665(3) range. If this week’s US job data performs well in the latter part of the week, the gold price may once again visit below 2600.

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Daily chart(above) > The overall trend for gold prices continues to adjust towards the 2600 mark, as mentioned last week. The significant selling pressure on Monday (4) is expected to continue influencing the S-T direction. The daily chart range is set between 2605-2665, and if there’s a downward breakout later this week, the downside target could be set around the 100-day MA near 2574 (6).

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Technical rebound + Russia/Ukraine situation rapidly deteriorated, causing gold prices to rebound strongly over $150 last week.

Following the rebound from the week before, the gold price opened at 2562 and quickly reached our target of 2620 early last week. Russia and Ukraine exchanged missiles and Putin eased the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons, boosting the gold price further. By the end of the week, the gold price reached the weekly high of 2715 as the market priced in the risk premium right before the weekend.

The gold price retreated sharply back from the weekend, falling to as low as 2658 in the Asian secession on Monday. We can expect the investment market to be relatively quiet this week as Thanksgiving weekend is approaching. Geopolitical situations will continue to dominate the gold trend this week. Since the gold price has surged over 20% from the beginning of the year, as long as the situation in Ukraine does not intensify, the price above 2,700 should be a good opportunity for institutional funds to seize profits from the beginning of the year before the year’s end.

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1-hr chart (above) > Gold price has entered a horizontal range pattern after it crossed the downward trend resistance line (1) last week. Take advantage of the 2650-2710(2) for now, and pay close attention to the development of the situation in Russia/Ukraine, the market may price in the risk premium once again before the Thanksgiving long weekend!

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Daily chart (above) > The rapid correction in the Asian session on Monday is causing a reversal signal to appear on the daily chart(3). Wait for the price to close below 2670 on Monday, once the reversal signal is completed, the price should return to 2600 or lower in the next two weeks.

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The market last week unfolded in line with our predictions, as the consolidation period continued. The price broke below the 2650(1) resistance level early in the week, initiating a downward movement toward our target at 2600. Subsequently, the price dropped to the weekly low of 2536 following the inflation data on Wednesday. A slight rebound occurred afterward, with the week closing near 2562 on Friday, marking a $102 decline.

Following the US election, the US dollar has remained strong, leading to a drop of over $250 in gold prices over the past two weeks. Nevertheless, the selling pressure has eased after the rebound from 2538. It’s worth noting that Fed Chairman Powell explicitly mentioned last Thursday that there is no rush to cut rates at the current market conditions, limiting the upward potential for gold for the time being. With no significant market data on the calendar for this week, gold prices are expected to stay sideways.

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1-hr chart(above) > The downward momentum has been decelerating since last Thursday. If the price manages to break out from the current descending trendline (3), we can establish the initial upside target at 2620 (4). Given the absence of significant economic data scheduled for this week, we can regard the range of 2555-2620 (4) as the provisional operating zone.

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Daily chart(above) >Gold achieved a 50% retracement last week (5) and rebounded from the 100-day MA (6). We can anticipate resistance in the short term around 2600-2605(7). In case of a breach above 2600, the subsequent target is expected near the 10-day moving average of around 2630.

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Gold prices fell back from their highs last week, in line with our expectations. The U.S. election suppressed the market in the early period, and gold prices were under pressure in the 2750-58(1) resistance zone. Once the election results became clear, the decline began to accelerate. A few US media announced Trump’s victory prior to the official result, causing the first drop to the low of 2701. A few hours later, when the election results were officially announced, the price of gold went straight through 2,700 and fell all the way to the week’s low of 2,643. Subsequently, at the US Fed meeting, the committee cut the rates by 1/4% in line with market expectations. Gold prices took advantage of the momentum to rebound to 2710, closing the market at 2684 before the weekend.

After last week’s sharp drop, gold’s upward momentum has officially weakened. The price of gold has soared by nearly $800 since the beginning of the year, so we should start to beware of relatively large-scale institutional liquidation activities as the year-end approaches. The focus this week is Wednesday’s U.S. inflation data. If the CPI data does not slow down like the PCE inflation number released 2 weeks back, gold prices will likely retest the low again this week.

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1-hour chart (above) > Since gold price escaped the sideway range (4) last week, the decline has speeded up, and the downward resistance has accelerated from (2) to (2.1). The S-T trend remains bearish, with the 1st target set at last week’s low of 2646 -50(3). If gold prices fall beyond 2646, the next downside target will be near 2600. On the other hand, we must still pay attention to the fact that if the gold price surges above the falling resistance line (2.1) in the next 48 hours, the gold price may stay within 2650-2710(4) for a while longer until the next major move.

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Daily chart (above) > Gold prices broke out from the M-T uptrend channel (5) originating from August, and the upward trend in the past three months has officially ended now. The price is currently supported by the 50-day MA (7). Before the price adjusts further down, the pattern on the daily chart will remain sideway between 2645-2710 (8).

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Driven mainly by the US election and economic figures last week, the gold price pulled back from the newly formed record high. With the US election approaching, the gold market opened strong early last week. A better-than-expected US consumer confidence on Tue. led to a breakthrough of the previous high at 2758 (1), triggering a new round of S-T buying until it reached 2790 and the US 3Q GDP and ADP employment on Wed. However, the upward momentum reversed on Thursday after the core PCE inflation data, setting off a round of short-selling and profit-taking pushing gold prices back below the 2750-2758 resistance zone(3). Friday’s US employment data fell significantly below expectations, but the gold price still failed to close above 2758(3), the week ended at 2735.

Gold prices retreated from 2790 with significant profit-taking action reflected in the number of COMEX gold open interest on Oct. 31st. The profit-taking activities should persist early this week ahead of two major events (the US election and the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting). Unless there is a strong market reaction with a Trump victory or additional aggressive rate cuts from the US Fed. sparking a new round of S-T buying, it is unlikely that gold prices will reach over 2790 this week.

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1-hr chart (above) > Gold price broke the support line (2) last week, indicating a slowdown of the upward momentum. The selling pressure was relatively strong above 2758(3) as the price failed to clear the resistance zone(3) after the extremely weak US employment figures last Friday. Before the result of the US election and the US Fed., the S-T trading range is now set at 2710-2750 (4).

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Daily Chart (above) > The Gold price was rejected by the upper resistance of the uptrend channel (5) last week, followed by a single-day drop of over $40 last Thursday, an S-T reversal signal has appeared on the daily chart. Investors are waiting for the news to impact the market from the US election and the US Fed. meeting, the S-T trend should remain bearish for now. The first target on the daily chart is at 2715 (6) and the 20-day moving average (7).

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The gold price hit our S-T target of 2750 last week, reaching a new high of 2758. However, the upward momentum failed to last, and the price couldn’t hold above 2750, dropping back to the weekly low of 2708. Towards the end of the week, the gold market once again priced in the risk premium ahead of the weekend’s geopolitical uncertainties, pushing the price back to 2750, and closing the week at 2747.

Last week, several Federal Reserve officials made comments suggesting a ‘cautious approach to rate cuts,’ which strengthened the US dollar and put pressure on gold prices. On the other hand, the market had been grappling with potential retaliatory actions from Israel against Iran for the past two weeks, which finally materialized over the weekend. The attacks were relatively restrained, focusing solely on military sites in Iran and avoiding oil and nuclear facilities. Tehran, so far, has not issued an immediate response. With no significant casualties, the geopolitical tensions eased as markets opened on Monday. The NYMEX oil, most directly affected, gapped open 4% lower, and gold prices also opened $10 lower.

A few crucial US data releases are scheduled from Tuesday to Friday this week, including consumer confidence, third-quarter GDP, core PCE inflation, non-farm payrolls, and the unemployment rate. A lot of uncertainty fills the week, but… considering most of the US economic figures released in the past few weeks have been relatively strong, we can anticipate downward pressures on gold prices prior to the outcome of these figures. As the US election enters its final stages, regardless of the outcome, there is a strong likelihood that the gap between the two candidates will narrow before election day, potentially leading to safe-haven funds flowing into the gold market to support the price, offsetting the downward pressure from strong data.

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1-hr chart (above) > The price failed to hold above 2750 last week, causing the S-T trend to break below the upward support line (1). The upward momentum has begun to slow down, the support has shifted from the mid-week support line(2) to a slower pace(2.1) before the weekend. The key resistance zone is now sitting at last week’s high of 2750-2758 (4). If any US data falls short this week, the gold price may break above this resistance, triggering a new round of buying. However, before all those economic figures from the US, we can take advantage of the sideway range of 2710-50 (3) for S-T trading.

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日線圖 (上圖） > 整體格局未有太大改變，關鍵阻力在 2750(5)，而上升通道(6)仍然有效。

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Gold prices exceeded our expectations last week. They broke above the previous high of 2685 without any influence from major economic data or news, closing the week at a new high of 2722 before the weekend.

Early last week, gold prices continued to carry the upward momentum from the US inflation data from the previous week, jumping to the resistance at 2670. Although it was not a major market focus, weak US manufacturing data on Tuesday led to a technical breakout of the descending resistance line(1), triggering a round of buying that quickly pushed prices to the previous historical high of 2685.

After the ECB chopped the 0.5% rate and the release of US retail data on Thursday, the gold price cleared the resistance from the previous high of 2685, where the buying momentum carried on until Friday’s market close. As the Asian session opened on Monday, funds continued to flow in, so far no clear signs of a reversal yet.

Last week, the gold market shook off the influence of the US rate cut and the recent geopolitical factors, and the overall investment market is gradually being driven by the upcoming US election and its associated uncertainties. With the current market condition, “Trump trade” or not, the gold market, US stocks market, or cryptocurrencies, will be relatively bullish before the election date.

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1-hr chart (above) > The upward trend is still accelerating, shifting from last week’s trend line (3) to a faster pace at (3.1). With gold prices hitting new highs, there are no previous prices to use as references. In the S-T, watch out for the round number of 2750; and a 1:1 projection from the previous week’s high/low range (4), with a target around 2765 (4.1).

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Daily Chart > Gold prices broke through the key resistance at 2685 last week (5), reigniting the upward trend. The daily chart has not shown any reversal signals yet, so in the S-T, watch for resistance around 2750 near the upper resistance of the uptrend channel(6).

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Carrying the upward trend from the week before, gold prices hit a new high, pricing in the US Fed. additional 0.25% rate cut last week, in line with our expectations. The current uptrend started from 2550 after the meeting, and the upward momentum has finally slowed down after reaching a peak at 2685 on Thursday. The latest OI data from CME showed some slight profit-taking in the market before the weekend.

After the US Fed. meeting and China’s recent economic stimulation policies, the market is still in a kind of excited state. The CME fed. watch indicates that the probability of a 0.5% rate cut in November has increased from 48% at the end of last week to the latest 54% today. As long as the upcoming U.S. economic data in the next few weeks remains “normal,” and in line with market expectations. The gold market should behave the same as in late Aug. and early Sept. with a backdrop of the market speculating another 0.5% rate cut at the next Nov. meeting,

The focus this week is on Friday’s U.S. employment data. If the data exceeds expectations, gold may give us a deeper correction.

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1-hour Chart > Last week’s target of 2645-50, based on the sideway range 1:1 ratio(2), has been achieved, and the price continues to break higher. However, it is important to note that the upward trend began to slow down towards the end of last week, with the upward momentum slowing further from support line(3.1) to (3.2) and then to (3.3). The S-T operating range is between 2645-85(5) for now. The key support level is at 2645 (4), and if this level is breached towards the end of this week, the operating range will shift down to 2600-2645.

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Daily Chart > 2685 appears to be the current top. Temporarily takes the high and low of last Thu. and Fri.(7) as a trading reference(7). If the price breaks below 2645, the support line (6) and the 20-day MA should be the downside target in the coming two weeks.

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The uptrend has restarted since the gold prices broke out from the range of 2480-2530(1) two weeks ago. There was some S-T profit-taking after the US Fed announcement, however, the prices managed to clear the S-T resistance(3) before the weekend, hitting a new all-time high.

Before the US Fed. meeting, the market was merely expecting a 25 basis points cut, and the extra 25 basis points cut surprised everyone. Now the market needs additional time to price in this new factor, so gold prices are likely to keep going up in the S-T. Recently, people are more focused on how the U.S. economy is doing rather than inflation figures. This week, keep an eye on the U.S. 2Q GDP report coming out on Thursday. The PCE inflation data on Friday might not have a very big impact on gold prices.

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1-hr Chart(above) > Gold prices have been running in an uptrend channel(2) in the past two weeks. While the price is hanging around its recent highs, there are no previous supports or resistances to reference from. However, remember the gold has been trading sideways between 2472-2530(4) in early September. Seems that each break-out is running the same range, around 56 dollars. After surpassing (4.1) last Friday, the first target for this week could be set at approximately 2646-50 (4.2), 1:1 ratio.

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Daily Chart(above) > The upward momentum of gold prices is accelerating, and the upward support has shifted from (5) to (5.1). There is no obvious reversal signal on the daily chart, the buy-low strategy continues.

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Spot gold price has remained sideway in the past 2 weeks, with both the PCE price index and US employment data failing to bring new momentum to the market. The OI data from CME’s gold futures has stayed at around 510k for a while now, showing no significant changes in the numbers of long/short positions. This week’s focus is on Wednesday’s U.S. inflation data, no matter if it is good or bad, the market reaction should be like those major figures released previously. A week from the US interest rate meeting, it’s not easy for gold to escape the current range without any new stimulus. The market should give us more chances this week to take advantage of the sideways market. Just need to be cautious towards the end of this week, when the market may start to price-in further the US Fed. cut next week, leading to an early breakthrough.

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1-hr chart > Continue to operate in the 2480-2520(1) range until the price escape.

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Daily chart > The uptrend channel (2) is still dominating the gold market in M-T. S-T range remains in 2480-2530(3). If the price falls below 2480 before/after the Fed. meeting, a major consolidation will begin. a

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