2024 年第一季度,美國銀行業利潤飆升 79.5%,達到 642 億美元,這主要是由於大型銀行沒有承擔為彌補去年春天銀行倒閉造成的成本而支付的數十億美元特別費用。聯邦存款保險公司表示,利潤增加的主要原因是銀行沒有意識到這項評估,導致 2023 年底銀行利潤下降。具體來說,FDIC 表示,第一季銀行非利息支出減少了 225 億美元,這是利潤成長的主要原因。特別評估費用的下降佔這些下降費用的一半以上。總體而言,FDIC 表示資產品質指標總體上仍然良好,但注意到信用卡和商業房地產(CRE)投資組合惡化。特別是,FDIC 表示,非業主佔用的 CRE 貸款的非流動利率目前為 1.59%,為 2013 年第四季以來的最高水平,主要由大型銀行的辦公室投資組合推動。FDIC 還表示,第一季其「問題銀行名單」從 52 家公司擴大到 63 家,這些銀行的總資產增至 821 億美元。目前,1.4% 的銀行被視為“問題銀行”,FDIC 表示這一數字屬於正常範圍。銀行存款連續第二季成長 1.1%,即 1,907 億美元。預計未保險存款將成長 0.9%,這是自 2021 年底以來的首次成長。
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that the Bank of Japan would advance its inflation targeting framework cautiously, noting that some of the challenges facing Japan after years of ultra-loose monetary policy are “extraordinarily difficult.” In his opening speech at a central bank meeting hosted by the Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Ueda said Japan had “made progress in moving away from zero interest rates and raising inflation expectations.” He said that in order to achieve 2% inflation in a sustainable and stable manner, the Bank of Japan “will act cautiously like other central banks that set inflation target frameworks.” Accurately estimating the neutral rate is particularly challenging in Japan, Ueda noted, given the long period of short-term rates near zero over the past three decades.At the same meeting, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said Japan’s fight against persistent deflation was coming to an end, but acknowledged that anchoring inflation expectations at the 2% target was “a huge challenge.” Uchida said labor market conditions have undergone structural and irreversible changes that will help address the root causes of deflation such as excess labor supply.In March, the Bank of Japan made a landmark move to end the remnants of eight years of negative interest rates and other aggressive stimulus measures as it believes sustained achievement of its 2% inflation target is within reach. Ueda said the central bank intends to raise interest rates to a level that is neutral for the economy as long as economic growth and inflation are in line with its forecasts. The market expects the Bank of Japan to begin a full reduction in bond purchases soon, with Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rising to a 12-year high last week. They also expect rates to rise by at least 0.20% by the end of the year.
日本央行行长上田一夫周一表示,日本央行将谨慎推进通膨目标框架,并指出,在实施多年的超宽松货币政策后,日本面临的一些挑战「异常困难」。 上田在日本央行在东京主办的央行会议上发表开幕演讲时表示,日本「在摆脱零利率和提升通膨预期方面取得了进展」。 他表示,为了以可持续和稳定的方式实现 2% 的通膨率,日本央行「将像其他制定通膨目标框架的央行一样谨慎行事」。 上田指出,鉴于过去三十年短期利率长期接近零,在日本准确估计中性利率尤其具有挑战性。在同一次会议上,日本央行副行长内田伸一表示,日本对抗持续通货紧缩的斗争即将结束,但他承认将通膨预期锚定在 2% 的目标是「一个巨大的挑战」。 内田表示,劳动市场状况已经发生结构性、不可逆转的变化,有助于解决劳动力供应过剩等通货紧缩的根源。3 月份,日本央行做出了一项具有里程碑意义的举措,结束了长达八年的负利率和其他激进刺激措施的残余,因为它认为持续实现 2% 的通膨目标指日可待。 上田表示,只要经济成长和通膨符合其预测,央行就打算将利率提高至对经济而言中立的水平。 市场预计日本央行很快就会开始全面缩减购债规模,上周日本 10 年期公债殖利率将升至 12 年来新高。 他们还预计年底前利率至少将上涨 0.20%。
日本央行行長上田一夫週一表示,日本央行將謹慎推進通膨目標框架,並指出,在實施多年的超寬鬆貨幣政策後,日本面臨的一些挑戰「異常困難」。上田在日本央行在東京主辦的央行會議上發表開幕演講時表示,日本「在擺脫零利率和提升通膨預期方面取得了進展」。他表示,為了以可持續和穩定的方式實現 2% 的通膨率,日本央行「將像其他制定通膨目標框架的央行一樣謹慎行事」。上田指出,鑑於過去三十年短期利率長期接近零,在日本準確估計中性利率尤其具有挑戰性。在同一次會議上,日本央行副行長內田伸一表示,日本對抗持續通貨緊縮的鬥爭即將結束,但他承認將通膨預期錨定在 2% 的目標是「一個巨大的挑戰」。內田表示,勞動市場狀況已經發生結構性、不可逆轉的變化,有助於解決勞動力供應過剩等通貨緊縮的根源。3 月份,日本央行做出了一項具有里程碑意義的舉措,結束了長達八年的負利率和其他激進刺激措施的殘餘,因為它認為持續實現 2% 的通膨目標指日可待。上田表示,只要經濟成長和通膨符合其預測,央行就打算將利率提高至對經濟而言中立的水平。市場預計日本央行很快就會開始全面縮減購債規模,上週日本 10 年期公債殖利率將升至 12 年來新高。 他們還預計年底前利率至少將上漲 0.20%。
国际金价上周初突破前高2431,在周一亚盘创出历史新高2450,但随后未有买盘承接,市场将焦点集中在香港时间周四凌晨的美联储会议记录,周三美盘先失守2400 ,随后消息公布后再跌穿关键支持2380(1),一直回落至周五最低2325。本周重点关注周四及周五的美国第一季度GDP及通胀数据。
1小时图 – 金价在上周跌穿关键支撑2375(1)后,整体趋势已经转弱,现时支撑在前周四的2318-28(2)支撑区,今天(周一)是美国假期,预期波金动会比预窄幅,未来24小时可短暂控制2325-50(4)操作。1小时图仍以下跌趋势为主,本周必须关注下降锁定线(3),若金价能上破此阻力,上周的下跌趋势即将结束。
日线图 – 短线可控制阻力20天移动平均线(6),上升支撑线(5)???暂时完全可作参考,但未算。趋势仍以下跌趋势为主,图表上未有出现转势讯号,日线图本周第一目标可定在50天移动均线(7) – 2314。
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國際金價上週初突破前高2431,在週一亞盤創出歷史新高2450,但隨後未有買盤承接,市場將焦點集中在香港時間週四凌晨的美聯儲會議記錄,週三美盤先失守2400,隨後消息公佈後再跌穿關鍵支持2380(1),一直回落至週五最低2325。本週重點關注週四及週五的美國第一季度GDP及通脹數據
1小時圖 – 金價在上週跌穿關鍵支持2375(1)後,整體趨勢已經轉弱,現時支持在前兩週的2318-28(2)支持區,今天(週一)是美國假期,預期波金動會比預窄幅,未來24小時可短暫把握2325-50(4)操作。1小時圖仍以下跌趨勢為主,本週必須留意下降阻力線(3),若金價能上破這阻力,上週的下降趨勢將會完結。
日線圖 – 短線可把握阻力20天移動平均線(6),上升支持線(5)???暫時可作參考,但未算完全形成。趨勢仍以下跌趨勢為主,圖表上未有出現轉勢訊號,日線圖本週第一目標可定在50天移動均線(7) – 2314。
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The survey showed new home prices will fall by 5.0% in 2024, compared with a 0.9% drop expected in the last survey in February. Prices are likely to remain unchanged in 2025, compared with a 0.5% rise predicted in February. The poll, conducted between May 10 and 17, may only partially take into account the government support measures announced on Friday to stabilize the housing market.Beijing has pledged up to 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) in funding and loosened mortgage rules and local governments will buy “some” apartments, in what many analysts say is the government’s strongest move yet to turn around the industry. However, questions remain about the latest measures, particularly whether they were overly enforced and how the government can help clear out the trillions in housing inventory.Since the real estate market fell into crisis in 2021, Chinese authorities have launched wave after wave of policy support measures to boost demand, but with little success. Property sales are likely to contract 10.0% in 2024, up from the 5.0% forecast in the previous survey, while investment is expected to fall 10.0% from the 6.1% forecast in the previous survey, the survey showed.
调查显示,2024 年新房价将下降 5.0%,而 2 月的上次调查预计将下降 0.9%。 与 2 月预测的上涨 0.5% 相比,2025 年价格可能保持不变。 这项民意调查于5月10日至17日期间进行,可能仅部分考虑了政府周五宣布的稳定房地产市场的支持措施。北京承诺提供高达1兆元(1,380亿美元)的资金,并放宽抵押贷款规定,地方政府将购买「部分」公寓,许多分析师表示,这是政府迄今为止为扭转该行业的最强劲举措。 然而,关于最新措施的问题仍然存在,特别是执行过度以及政府如何帮助清理数万亿的房屋库存。自2021年房地产市场陷入危机以来,中国当局推出了一波又一波的政策支持措施来提振需求,但收效甚微。 调查显示,2024 年房地产销售可能萎缩 10.0%,幅度高于先前调查预测的 5.0%,而投资预计将从先前调查预测的 6.1% 下降 10.0%。
調查顯示,2024 年新房價將下降 5.0%,而 2 月的上次調查預計將下降 0.9%。 與 2 月預測的上漲 0.5% 相比,2025 年價格可能保持不變。這項民意調查於5月10日至17日期間進行,可能僅部分考慮了政府週五宣布的穩定房地產市場的支持措施。北京承諾提供高達1兆元(1,380億美元)的資金,並放寬抵押貸款規定,地方政府將購買「部分」公寓,許多分析師表示,這是政府迄今為止為扭轉該行業的最強勁舉措。然而,關於最新措施的問題仍然存在,特別是執行過度以及政府如何幫助清理數萬億的房屋庫存。自2021年房地產市場陷入危機以來,中國當局推出了一波又一波的政策支持措施來提振需求,但收效甚微。調查顯示,2024 年房地產銷售可能萎縮 10.0%,幅度高於先前調查預測的 5.0%,而投資預計將從先前調查預測的 6.1% 下降 10.0%。
Gold has started its rebound after a series of important U.S. economic data went worse than expected since the beginning of this month, and the US inflation data slowed further last week has accelerated the upward momentum. The price rose to a one-month high of 2422 on Friday, with the week ending near 2414. Note that the price of silver also broke through the 2020 high of US$30 on the same day, reflecting that the precious metals market is strengthening and the bullish trend should resume very soon.
1-hr chart – The upward trend accelerated last week from the support line (1) to (1.1). Gold cleared all the short-selling orders near the previous high of 2430 early in the Asian session on Monday reaching a new high of 2440. While the resistance of 2430(2) is cleared, a new round of buying should be triggered in the next 48 hours, and the target in the early part of this week can be set at 2450 or even higher. Notice, the key support is now at 2430. If the gold price returns below 2430, the current upward momentum will slow down, and the trend will reverse.
Daily Chart—Last Friday was the first time gold prices closed above 2400, showing that buying orders above 2400 are starting to dominate, the first signal for gold prices to break higher. Gold fluctuated by about US$150 during the consolidation period in the past month(3). The M-T target can be set near 2580(3), a 1:1: ratio. As long as the price stays above 2431 on the daily chart, the S-T target can be set at 2448.
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