Technical rebound + Russia/Ukraine situation rapidly deteriorated, causing gold prices to rebound strongly over $150 last week.
Following the rebound from the week before, the gold price opened at 2562 and quickly reached our target of 2620 early last week. Russia and Ukraine exchanged missiles and Putin eased the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons, boosting the gold price further. By the end of the week, the gold price reached the weekly high of 2715 as the market priced in the risk premium right before the weekend.
The gold price retreated sharply back from the weekend, falling to as low as 2658 in the Asian secession on Monday. We can expect the investment market to be relatively quiet this week as Thanksgiving weekend is approaching. Geopolitical situations will continue to dominate the gold trend this week. Since the gold price has surged over 20% from the beginning of the year, as long as the situation in Ukraine does not intensify, the price above 2,700 should be a good opportunity for institutional funds to seize profits from the beginning of the year before the year’s end.
>
1-hr chart (above) > Gold price has entered a horizontal range pattern after it crossed the downward trend resistance line (1) last week. Take advantage of the 2650-2710(2) for now, and pay close attention to the development of the situation in Russia/Ukraine, the market may price in the risk premium once again before the Thanksgiving long weekend!
>
Daily chart (above) > The rapid correction in the Asian session on Monday is causing a reversal signal to appear on the daily chart(3). Wait for the price to close below 2670 on Monday, once the reversal signal is completed, the price should return to 2600 or lower in the next two weeks.
P. To
技术性反弹，加俄/乌局势急速变坏，令金价上周强势反弹超过150美元。
承接前周见底反弹，上周金价开盘于2562，周初已突破2600升至我们的早段目标2620。随后俄/乌互换导弹，普京放宽使用核武条件，令金价继续往上。周五市场 price-in 周未的风险溢价，令金价在贴近全周最高2715收市，一周上升153美元。
周未过后风险减退，金价急速回调，今早亚盘跌到最低2658。数据方面重点留意周三美国公布季度GDP及PCE通胀数字。本周后期是美国感恩节周未，相信整个投资市场会相对平静。而地缘局势消息将继续主导本周金市，但只要局势没有进一步恶化，相信2700以上会是年终前机构资金把握的全年高位获利平仓机会。
>
1小时图(上图) > 金价上周升穿源自2790的下降趋势(1)，技术上进入区间横行格局，初步操作以2650-2710(2)为篮本。但必须留意俄/乌局势发展。
>
日线图(上图) > 今日早段的急速回调，令金价在日线图出现见顶转势讯号(3)。只要在周一收盘在2670之下，金价在未来２周将回到2600或更低。
P. To
技術性反彈，加俄/烏局勢急速變壞，令金價上週強勢反彈超過150美元。
承接前週見底反彈，上週金價開盤於2562，週初已突破2600升至我們的早段目標2620。隨後俄/烏互換導彈，普京放寬使用核武條件，令金價繼續往上。週五市場 price-in 週未的風險溢價，令金價在貼近全週最高2715收市，一週上升153美元。
週未過後風險減退，金價急速回調，今早亞盤跌到最低2658。數據方面重點留意週三美國公佈季度GDP及PCE通脹數字。本週後期是美國感恩節週未，相信整個投資市場會相對平靜。而地緣局勢消息將繼續主導本週金市，但只要局勢沒有進一步惡化，相信2700以上會是年終前機構資金把握的全年高位獲利平倉機會。
>
1小時圖(上圖) > 金價上週升穿源自2790的下降趨勢(1)，技術上進入區間橫行格局，初步操作以2650-2710(2)為籃本。但必須留意俄/烏局勢發展。
>
日線圖(上圖) > 今日早段的急速回調，令金價在日線圖出現見頂轉勢訊號(3)。只要在週一收盤在2670之下，金價在未來２週將回到2600或更低。
P. To
14/11 价格回落到小时级别的支持位上方2530出现力量反弹破下跌结构，回测完前顶出动能上升后，周一欧盘前都有一个买顺势的机会，5M图看到价格去到前横行底2596时出现回调，而近期升段的0.618刚好有个前顶，向上做顺势可以试，但由于这亦算是阻力下反弹，最终都可以直接向下延续或震完再向下行，所以如果成功向上行，到返前顶时最好减仓或做仓位管理。周五价格升到大图的互换位2710时, 5M图出现力量反弹，0.618的前底可试短线向下，但用1H看向上的动能明显很强，向下大机会是回调波，目标不宜太远。现价2714，上周收市前刚好突破了15M图的横行区，周一开市后留意有没有力量跌穿返前底形成假突破，短线向下可能是机会。虽然近期上升动能强，但日图的前跌段也很强，而且也跌穿日图的上升结构，所以大图出震荡的机会较大，所以大图跌段的较上的位置，在细图出力量向下做，有机会潜在利润较高。近期阻力2749向上布署的话，待价格回调到小时级别的支持位2643/2617 出力反弹再入市，获利空间会较大。K.LAM风险提示: 场外式黄金/白银交易涉及高度风险，未必适合所有投资者。高度的杠杆可为阁下带来负面或正面的影响。阁下在决定买卖场外式黄金/白银之前应审慎考虑自己的投资目标、交易经验以及风险接受程度。可能出现的情况包括蒙受部分或全部初始投资额的损失，或在极端情况下（例如相关市场跳空）产生更多的损失。因此，阁下不应将无法承受损失的资金用于投资。投资应知悉买卖场外式黄金/白银有关的一切风险，如有需要，请向独立财务顾问寻求意见。市场资料仅供参考，MAX Online 绝不保证分析内容的准确性。
由於燃料和其他商品價格上漲，美國 10 月進口價格意外上漲，這是近幾個月通膨率下降缺乏進展的最新跡象。美國勞工部勞工統計局週五表示，進口價格在 9 月未經修正的下降 0.4% 之後，上個月反彈 0.3%。經濟學家預測，不包括關稅的進口價格將下滑 0.1%。截至 10 月的 12 個月內，進口價格上漲 0.8%，9 月下降 0.1%。進口燃料價格在連續兩個月下降後上漲 1.5%。食品價格下跌 1.6%，連續第三個月下降。不包括燃料和食品的進口價格在 9 月上漲 0.3% 之後上漲 0.4%。所謂的核心進口價格在 10 月年增 2.2%。政府數據週顯示，將通膨率降至 2% 目標的進展基本停滯。 10 月份，消費者物價指數連續第四個月上漲 0.2%，生產者物價指數上漲 0.2%。再加上新任總統川普即將上任的政府預計將對進口商品徵收關稅，經濟學家認為聯準會不太可能像政策制定者 9 月預測的那樣在 2025 年降息四次。儘管人們普遍預期聯準會將在 12 月第三次降息，但一些經濟學家表示，這將是一場驚心動魄的較量。聯準會主席鮑威爾週四表示，「經濟並沒有發出任何訊號表明我們需要急於降息。」聯準會在9 月以異常大幅的半個百分點降息開啟了其政策寬鬆週期，這是自2020 年以來首次降低借貸成本。聯準會在 2022 年和 2023 年升息 525 個基點以抑制通膨。
由于燃料和其他商品价格上涨，美国 10 月份进口价格意外上涨，这是近几个月通胀率下降缺乏进展的最新迹象。美国劳工部劳工统计局周五表示，进口价格在 9 月份未经修正的下降 0.4% 之后，上个月反弹 0.3%。经济学家预测，不包括关税的进口价格将下滑 0.1%。截至 10 月的 12 个月内，进口价格上涨 0.8%，9 月份下降 0.1%。进口燃料价格在连续两个月下降后上涨 1.5%。食品价格下跌 1.6%，连续第三个月下降。不包括燃料和食品的进口价格在 9 月份上涨 0.3% 之后上涨 0.4%。所谓的核心进口价格在 10 月份同比上涨 2.2%。政府数据周显示，将通胀率降至 2% 目标的进展基本停滞。 10 月份，消费者物价指数连续第四个月上涨 0.2%，生产者物价指数上涨 0.2%。再加上新任总统唐纳德·特朗普即将上任的政府预计将对进口商品征收关税，经济学家认为美联储不太可能像政策制定者 9 月份预测的那样在 2025 年降息四次。尽管人们普遍预计美联储将在 12 月第三次降息，但一些经济学家表示，这将是一场惊心动魄的较量。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周四表示，“经济并没有发出任何信号表明我们需要急于降息。”美联储在 9 月份以异常大幅的半个百分点降息开启了其政策宽松周期，这是自 2020 年以来首次降低借贷成本。美联储在 2022 年和 2023 年加息 525 个基点以抑制通胀。
The market last week unfolded in line with our predictions, as the consolidation period continued. The price broke below the 2650(1) resistance level early in the week, initiating a downward movement toward our target at 2600. Subsequently, the price dropped to the weekly low of 2536 following the inflation data on Wednesday. A slight rebound occurred afterward, with the week closing near 2562 on Friday, marking a $102 decline.
Following the US election, the US dollar has remained strong, leading to a drop of over $250 in gold prices over the past two weeks. Nevertheless, the selling pressure has eased after the rebound from 2538. It’s worth noting that Fed Chairman Powell explicitly mentioned last Thursday that there is no rush to cut rates at the current market conditions, limiting the upward potential for gold for the time being. With no significant market data on the calendar for this week, gold prices are expected to stay sideways.
>
1-hr chart(above) > The downward momentum has been decelerating since last Thursday. If the price manages to break out from the current descending trendline (3), we can establish the initial upside target at 2620 (4). Given the absence of significant economic data scheduled for this week, we can regard the range of 2555-2620 (4) as the provisional operating zone.
>
Daily chart(above) >Gold achieved a 50% retracement last week (5) and rebounded from the 100-day MA (6). We can anticipate resistance in the short term around 2600-2605(7). In case of a breach above 2600, the subsequent target is expected near the 10-day moving average of around 2630.
P. To
上周走势整体合乎预期，继续以调整为主。金价早段已跌穿阻力2650(1)，触发了第一轮跌浪到达我们上周的第一目标2600。周三交易日美国公布通胀数据过后进一步失守2600(2)，令金价一直回落到最低2536。随后轻微反弹，周五收盘在2562，全周下跌102美元。
自美国大选过后美元维持强势，而金价在短短2周内下跌超过250美元，一直处于买盘离场、获利平仓格局。周四金价从全周低位开始反弹，短线下跌趋势已经放慢。但暂时不能预期金价会反弹很高，始终上周四美联储主席鲍威尔直接表明以现时市场状态”不急于减息”。本周没有重要市场数据，金价走势暂时会在低位震荡。
>
1小时图(上图) > 金价在上周早段下跌加速后，趋势已经放慢。只要能往上突破上周早段的下降趋势线(3)，本周早段目标可设在2620(4)。在本周没有重要数据的市况下，初步以2555-2620(4)为本周操作区间。
>
日线图(上图) > 黄金上周完成了一浪的50%的调整(5)，触及100天MA(6)后出现明显反弹。短暂2600-05(7)会有明显阻力，若本周较后时间往上突破，目标留意10天MA在2630附近。
P. To
上週走勢整體合乎預期，繼續以調整為主。金價早段已跌穿阻力2650(1)，觸發了第一輪跌浪到達我們上週的第一目標2600。週三交易日美國公佈通脹數據過後進一步失守2600(2)，令金價一直回落到最低2536。隨後輕微反彈，週五收盤在2562，全週下跌102美元。
自美國大選過後美元維持強勢，而金價在短短2週內下跌超過250美元，一直處於買盤離場、獲利平倉格局。週四金價從全週低位開始反彈，短線下跌趨勢已經放慢。但暫時不能預期金價會反彈很高，始終上週四美聯儲主席鮑威爾直接表明以現時市場狀態”不急於減息”。本週沒有重要市場數據，金價走勢暫時會在低位震蕩。
>
1小時圖(上圖) > 金價在上週早段下跌加速後，趨勢已經放慢。只要能往上突破上週早段的下降趨勢線(3)，本週早段目標可設在2620(4)。在本週沒有重要數據的市況下，初步以2555-2620(4)為本週操作區間。
>
日線圖(上圖) > 黃金上週完成了一浪的50%的調整(5)，觸及100天MA(6)後出現明顯反彈。短暫2600-05(7)會有明顯阻力，若本週較後時間往上突破，目標留意10天MA在2630附近。
P. To
Gold prices fell back from their highs last week, in line with our expectations. The U.S. election suppressed the market in the early period, and gold prices were under pressure in the 2750-58(1) resistance zone. Once the election results became clear, the decline began to accelerate. A few US media announced Trump’s victory prior to the official result, causing the first drop to the low of 2701. A few hours later, when the election results were officially announced, the price of gold went straight through 2,700 and fell all the way to the week’s low of 2,643. Subsequently, at the US Fed meeting, the committee cut the rates by 1/4% in line with market expectations. Gold prices took advantage of the momentum to rebound to 2710, closing the market at 2684 before the weekend.
After last week’s sharp drop, gold’s upward momentum has officially weakened. The price of gold has soared by nearly $800 since the beginning of the year, so we should start to beware of relatively large-scale institutional liquidation activities as the year-end approaches. The focus this week is Wednesday’s U.S. inflation data. If the CPI data does not slow down like the PCE inflation number released 2 weeks back, gold prices will likely retest the low again this week.
>
1-hour chart (above) > Since gold price escaped the sideway range (4) last week, the decline has speeded up, and the downward resistance has accelerated from (2) to (2.1). The S-T trend remains bearish, with the 1st target set at last week’s low of 2646 -50(3). If gold prices fall beyond 2646, the next downside target will be near 2600. On the other hand, we must still pay attention to the fact that if the gold price surges above the falling resistance line (2.1) in the next 48 hours, the gold price may stay within 2650-2710(4) for a while longer until the next major move.
>
Daily chart (above) > Gold prices broke out from the M-T uptrend channel (5) originating from August, and the upward trend in the past three months has officially ended now. The price is currently supported by the 50-day MA (7). Before the price adjusts further down, the pattern on the daily chart will remain sideway between 2645-2710 (8).
P. To