歐元區PMI數據低於市場預期 / 比特幣再次成為避險天堂?

In Market Shorts
October 25, 2022

歐元區PMI數據低於市場預期

能源價格上升不停,讓歐元區商業活動指數跌至近兩年低點。眾人恐懼歐洲陷入深度衰退,路透社、CNBC報導,S&P Global歐元區綜合採購經理人指數(PMI),10月值為47.1、低於9月的48.1,並低於市場估計的47.5。綜合PMI以50為分界,低於50代表萎縮。歐元區綜合PMI已經連續四個月低於50,本月數據更創2020年11月以來新低。此外,當地通貨膨脤未有明顯放緩跡象,歐元區服務業的產出和投入指數仍逼近歷史高點。

比特幣再次成為避險天堂?

美國銀行(Bank of America)認為,比特幣與黃金的關聯度如今變高了,可能暗示最近的市場波動,讓投資人再度將比特幣視為避險的港灣。
Decrypt等外國媒體報導,Bank of America Securities分析師Alkesh Shah、Andrew Moss最近發表研究報告指出,比特幣與標準普爾500指數(SPX)、Nasdaq 100指數(QQQ)的正向關聯愈來愈低,與黃金(XAU)的關聯卻迅速上升,暗示投資人也許在總經環境仍充滿不確定性、股市尚未觸底之際,把比特幣視為相對安全的避險天堂。
美銀報告稱,比特幣目前對黃金的40天關聯係數約為0.5,高於8月中旬的零附近。雖然比特幣跟標普500、Nasdaq 100的關聯係數仍有0.69、0.72,卻低於數個月前的歷史最高峰且逐漸趨緩。
比特幣和黃金的關係向來被用來衡量投資人是否相信比特幣能夠保值。2021年6月至2022年2月期間,比特幣、黃金價格走勢密切相關,但2022年3月的關聯係數卻轉負。若兩者關聯係數為正,代表價格走勢相似,反之亦然。

場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.