世界黃金協會報告指金價未來將持續弱勢

In Market Shorts
September 27, 2022
世界黃金協會全球研究主管阿蒂加斯(Juan Carlos Artigas)報告表示,美元持續強勢打壓金價,本週黃金期貨跌至兩年半以來的新低,美元指數則是創下超過20年來的新高。不過,金價今年以來累計下跌約10%的表現仍要優於股市以及債市,特別是如果從美元指數今年以來已經上升約20%,以及公債殖利率的走勢來看,理論上金價應該要下跌約30%。
報告指出,在聯儲局持續升息的壓力之下,金價仍將受壓,但預期在年底以前就會尋得支撐,並認為聯儲局的加息週期已經接近尾聲。報告表示,如果聯儲局的加息幅度放緩,預期金價將會短暫維持;而美國以外的其他央行為了對抗通脹以及捍衛匯率也將會採取更多的加息行動,預期可以抵銷掉一些美元的強勢,從而令金價尋得支撐。
報告表示,全球經濟衰退也是一項無法忽視的風險,此將會提振黃金的避險需求;更多的央行也在增加其黃金儲備,8月份,烏茲別克央行的黃金儲備增加8.7公噸,已經是連續第三個月增加。經濟合作發展組織(OECD)26日在報告中將2023年全球經濟增長預估從2.8%下修至2.2%,因擔憂通膨以及能源危機的影響,其中歐元區經濟增長預估更是從1.7%下修至僅有0.3%。

場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
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