中國的製造業受到打擊 / 本周有兩央行進行議息

In Market Shorts
August 02, 2021

中國的製造業受到打擊

中國 7 月官方製造業採購經理指數急降至 50.4 指數點,較 6 月的 50.9 回落不少。出現這情況原因相信有兩個。首先是原料價格大幅上漲,推高了生產成本,使生產商不願大量生產。其次相信是環球經濟受疫情困擾已有很長時間,經濟逐步衰弱消費力降,因而對中國的工業品需求下降。中國作為世界工廠,於疫後中國世界工廠的地位便更明確。當中國生產商看淡其前景,這多少意味全球經濟增長也在放慢。而上周當美國公布次季 GDP 增長只為 6.5%,遠不及市場預期的 8.5%,相信多少也是在顯示同一情況。

本周有兩央行進行議息

本周分別是周二的澳央行及周四的英倫銀行進行議息。因疫情關系,多個主要澳洲城市,包 括悉尼均面對封城,嚴重影響當地經濟。現市場關注於本周二議息會上,澳央行會否叫停其網於 7 月初議息會才宣布的削買債計劃。若計劃遭叫停,可想象將十分不利於澳元匯價。反觀英國,情況卻截然不同。當地雖同時面對 Delta 變種病毒攻擊,但由於英國人口中達七成以上比率已接種了疫苗。其最新確診,住院及死亡數字均在下降。所以就是相信英倫銀行暫不急於進一步收緊貨幣政策,料其也會是繼新西蘭及加拿大後最快收緊的一個。留意本周四英倫銀行議息會,看英倫銀行有否在未來貨幣政策上給予市場啟示。 

場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
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