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市場憂慮FED再擴大加息幅度

In Market Shorts
October 10, 2022
在上周四OPEC+同意由11月起每日減產200萬桶,市場憂慮FED再擴大加息幅度。因為美國通脹依然高企,早前回落有很大程度上歸於油價回落,現在OPEC+減產意味美國下個月通脹數據可能會遠高於預期。
同時在周五晚公佈的失業率和非農就業數據都強於預期,失業率 由上個月3.7%下降至3.5%的,再次回到歷史低位。新增非農就業人數為26.3萬人,比上個月31.5萬有所下降但依然比預期的25萬多出1.3萬人,依當中服務業的人數新增較多,說明服務業仍然在復甦階段,需求比較旺盛,市場勞動力供給未出現實質改善。
美聯儲在9月份會議後給出的指引是今年年底前再加息125個基點(3.25%+1.25%=4.5%),而這次石油減產及勞動力數據做好導致市場憂慮美聯儲會加大力度,現時市場預測在12月份加息至4.75%的機率已達2成多。這樣的預測導致美國市場普遍大跌。
場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
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