通脹憂慮持續,黃金具有持續上漲動能
上週黃金價格向上走高,對通脹的憂慮預期刺激避險情緒,黃金價格最高觸及1847高位,週尾以1835收盤,依然處於高位震盪區間。美國勞工部1月12日公佈的數據顯示,去年12月美國消費者價格指數(CPI)環比上漲0.5%,同比上漲7%,創1982年6月以來最大同比漲幅,凸顯美國通貨膨脹壓力繼續攀升。
國際政治方面,美國總統拜登週三預測,俄羅斯總統普京將進逼烏克蘭,並表示如果俄羅斯全面入侵,將付出巨大代價。但他暗示如果“小規模入侵”,代價會較小。
拜登的言論給西方國家將如何應對一旦俄羅斯總統普京下令入侵烏克蘭時帶來了困惑和不確定性,這促使白宮後來試圖澄清拜登的意思。
拜登說,“我的猜測是他將會進逼,他得做點什麼。如果俄羅斯入侵,它將被追究責任——這取決於俄羅斯的行動。如果是小規模入侵,我們最終不得不為做什麼和不做什麼而爭論,等等,這是一回事。但如果他們真的做了他們有能力做的事…如果他們進一步入侵烏克蘭,這對俄羅斯來說將是一場災難。”
國際政治的不確定性很有可能引發新一輪對金融市場的擔憂,本周美國向烏克蘭地區運送90噸新的戰略物資,進一步加劇了地區危機。局勢的日趨緊張,可能引發黃金等具有避險特性的產品的價格上漲,可能在本週引發刺激性上漲。
美國勞工部周四公佈報告顯示,初請失業金人數連續第三週增加,數據也受到節後不利季節性因素的影響。新增奧密克戎變種感染病例正在減少,季節性因素,即政府用來從數據中消除季節性波動的模型,也料很快就會正常化,這表明近期請領失業金人數的急升只是暫時性的。
本週總體來看,奧密克戎在全球範圍的增加,烏克蘭局勢的進一步加劇,對美聯儲加息的預期,通脹的加劇等基本面因素都有利於黃金價格上漲,本週一以1834位置開市,依舊處於高位,本週內有可能再次上漲到1840區間,主要行情有可能繼續延續上兩週的震盪上漲。
技術分析:布林區間處於向下方向
上週價格在經過從1810-1847大幅上漲後,企穩於1840區間,後半段基本處於略微向下的整體趨勢,布林帶區間震蕩平穩,價格總體處於軌道的下半段區間。本週價格少許跳空高開,目前處於布林帶軌道中線位置,處於向下運動趨勢。
本週重要信息:
週四:03:00 美國1月聯邦基金利率目標上下限(%)
週四:03:00 美國12月耐用品訂單月率初值(%)
場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.