菅义伟成为新任首相, 市场预期《内部市场法案》通过後, 令英国GDP最少下跌3%

In 每日市场分析
September 15, 2020

菅义伟成为新任首相
日本内阁官房长菅义伟於执政自民党党魁选举中,在 535 张国会议员票及地方选票当中,共取得 377票,顺利胜出并自动成为新任首相,接替因健康问题请辞的前首相安倍晋三,完成安倍馀下约一年的任期。由於新任首相菅义伟早前表示,会进一步强化「安倍经济」模式,推动投资和改革,挽救受新冠肺炎疫情重创的经济,故市场普遍预期菅义伟上任後,於经济政策上将不会出现重大变动。而由於其获得党内大多数支持,且於新冠疫情阴霾之下,料菅义伟亦不会谬然解散国会重新大选,这有助消除短期政治上的不确定性。

市场预期《内部市场法案》通过後, 令英国GDP最少下跌3%
英国首相约翰逊於国会二读辩论《内部市场法案》时表示,有关法案只是保障措施,目的是要消除欧盟在贸易谈判中的威胁,无意引用。并指欧盟在脱欧贸易谈判期间,威胁以设立关卡,截断北爱尔兰与英格兰之间贸易往来作为谈判筹码,故有需要提出能凌驾脱欧协议部分条文作紧急应变。首相约翰逊虽为有关法案辩护,但市场普遍预期一旦法案通过,即代表欧英过渡期谈判破裂。目前市场估计英国有三分之一机会出现「无序脱欧」,在这情况下,英国国内生产总值(GDP) 明年最少或被拖累近三个百分点。届时,英伦银行亦有可能需要扩大购买资产计划规模,甚至实行负利率。

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