歐洲央行預計明年減息

In Market Shorts
September 19, 2022
歐洲央行(ECB)跟隨聯儲局(FED)腳步,開始緊縮貨幣。交易者認為,歐央連續激進升息後,可能會過度緊縮,明年稍晚有望反手減息。
路透社報導,9月初歐央宣布存款利率調高0.75%。歐央採取「前置式」(front loading)的貨幣緊縮政策對抗通脤,意思是緊縮週期之初,升息幅度較大,之後會逐漸放緩。官員示意,即便歐元區面臨衰退,仍會持續升息到2023年初。
Refinitiv提供給ICAP的數據顯示,歐央9月會議過後,貨幣市場上調了預估升息幅度,預測10、12月會議,歐央均會升息70個基點(0.7%)。交易者估計,利率將在2023年觸頂、來到2.7%。
市場一邊預期歐央會更激烈升息,一邊也押注明年稍後將啟動減息。他們推測2024年2月時,利率會降至2.6%。野村(Nomura)、美國銀行(BofA)、安聯(Allianz)均估計,歐央會在2023年或2024年減息。

場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
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