美元加息區間，黃金持續承壓
週一(6月20日)，現貨黃金承壓下行，週一整體呈現向下走勢，目前價格在1835區間，美元指數下落回調，但並未給金市帶來利好，市場維持對美聯儲將加大鷹派力度的預期。美聯儲主席鮑威爾將於本週三和周四分別在參議院和眾議院作證。值得注意的是，鮑威爾將面臨一項艱鉅的任務：既要承認經濟面臨潛在衰退的困境，又要證明最近一次加息75個基點的合理性。
上週，美聯儲加息75個基點，並暗示還將進一步加息。之後，在向國會提交兩年一度的貨幣政策報告中，美聯儲表示，儘管經濟衰退風險上升，但美聯儲“無條件”承諾對抗通脹。
決策者目前預計，美聯儲基準隔夜利率(目前在1.50%-1.75%的範圍內)在未來六個月內至少上調至3.4%。而一年前，大多數人認為到2023年該利率需要保持在接近於零的水平。面對近40年來最高水平的通脹，幾乎所有的美聯儲決策者都成了鷹派。
中期線上看，黃金主要在1800-1800區間運行，未有脫離1800區間。目前美國物價上漲，經濟受到相應影響，但因為要抗衡較強的通脹情況，美聯儲加息政策將會繼續維持，在此大背景下，黃金將在中短線繼續保持承壓下行的趨勢。
本周策略：
鑑於美元在加息背景下將企穩回調，黃金將在周內繼續維持承壓下行的行情，目前的1830區間可能在短線被突破，可考慮向下目標1800.
技術分析：
上週黃金短線實現突破，最高進入1855區間，後期向下調整，進入下行行情，但價格相對已經企穩。價格浮動密度較小。布林帶敞口逐漸縮小，價格目前在布林帶下軌道線，未有明顯的上升動力，本週將持續出現下調行情。
本週重要信息：
週四：20:30 美國截至6月13日當周初請失業金人數(萬)
場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.
