戰爭與通脹佔據主要情緒,黃金升至兩周高位
4月8日週五美元指數突破100,本週呈現上漲趨勢,與此同時黃金同步上漲,主要受美聯儲本年度加息預期影響,尾盤收於1945高位。市場主要情緒持續受到俄烏戰爭以及通脹影響,美元升高的同時避險產品隨之上漲。
俄烏戰爭目前沒有明顯進展,俄軍已經撤離基輔並將進攻的重點放在東部地區上,可以看出俄軍進攻受挫轉而進入烏克蘭軍隊防衛較鬆的東北部,進而維持一定的戰略勝利,可以推斷戰鬥將轉入長期化和緩慢化,軍事層面對金融市場影響較小。
各國對俄羅斯的金融以及經濟制裁逐漸升溫,雖然已經不再像戰爭初期那樣激烈,但各項製裁依然在持續加碼,美國總統拜登簽署關於進口俄羅斯石油和暫停兩國間正常貿易往來的禁令,加之之前的製裁舉措,基本等於將俄羅斯排除出了國際金融體系之外,可以預計即使在戰爭結束後,單一經濟模式的俄羅斯都將長期面對一定程度的困難。
但是不可否認的是,俄烏戰爭以及對全球通脹的預期依舊是市場強有力的主旋律,在本周也刺激了資金流入黃金避險產品市場,黃金價格受到追捧和推動,升至兩週以來新的高位,預計再次下降將有可能受到美聯儲新的緊縮言論影響。
本週預計黃金價格持續小幅上漲,重點在各國對俄羅斯的態度以及美聯儲是否放出新的舉措和言論,總體為看漲行情。
技術分析:
本週價格前期由布林帶下軌線升至中線以上,價格主要在1915-30區間震盪。本週後期價格上漲,第一階段升至1937位置,隨後持續走高,最高至1948.20高位,其後短暫搜索回調但依舊出於上漲趨勢,尾盤收於1945.週一預計維繫上漲局面,可能突破1950位置。
本週重要信息:
週二:20:30 美國3月CPI年率未季調(%)
週三:20:30 美國3月零售銷售月率(%)
場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.