庫存下滑及地緣政治緊張局勢令油價上升

In Market Shorts
February 09, 2022
美國能源部2月8日發布「短期能源展望」(Short-Term Energy Outlook, STEO)月報表示,國際油市的庫存持續下滑,或將令油價繼續維持在較高的水平。報告表示,1月底,經合組織(OECD)的商業石油庫存降至26.8億桶,創下2014年中以來的新低。繼2021年全球石油庫存平均減少180萬桶/日之後,今年庫存也預期將繼續下滑,這可能令油價繼續維持在接近每桶90美元的水平。報告表示,正當市場對新冠變異毒株奧密克戎(Omicron)的擔憂有所消退之際,包括烏克蘭在內的地緣政治緊張局勢卻急劇升高,帶動了油價的漲勢;並且由於國際油市的庫存較低,市場對可能的供應擔憂也將更為敏感。有鑑於此,本月報告將2022年西德州原油的均價預估較前月大幅上調8美元至每桶79.35美元,布蘭特原油的均價預估也較前月上調7.9美元至每桶82.87美元。

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