週內基本平穩,非農拉動尾盤大幅上升
現貨黃金本週內連續上升,價格從震盪價位1804升至最高1835,週末略微回調,最終1828收盤。 8月非農數據遠低於預期,美聯儲量化寬鬆政策穩定性得到保證,美元指數下降,呈現較強的不確定性,使現貨黃金獲得較大動能,呈現持續上升。
美國8月非農新增23.5萬,為本年度以來最小增幅,不及預期的70餘萬,美聯儲認為寬鬆政策將繼續持續,並且有可能加大力度藉以刺激疲軟的就業市場。
新一輪的變異病毒傳播使民眾的擔憂持續,導致消費疲弱,進而導致就業市場疲軟無力,招聘數量的下降,就業機會減少。
娛樂餐飲住宿行業在8月份再度錄得就業零增長,顯示新一輪疫情對消費及就業活動的衝擊都高於預期,在Delta病毒引發的新一波感染高峰仍未過去之際,即使沒有進一步限制措施施壓,民眾自發減少外出的狀況,也會令經濟活動活躍水平繼續受到衝擊。
綜上述所,黃金價格在本周依舊比較樂觀,總體鑑於美聯儲政策的一慣性,就業市場不振,持續的溫和型政策以及美元前景的不明朗。除此之外,疫情影響也是較大因素,在美元不穩和疫情避險的大背景下,黃金持續溫和上漲將是大概率事件。
本週上升空間主要關注1850位置,下游1800,總體1800-1850/60區間震盪上行,可保持總體看漲情緒。
技術分析:
上週前期價格保持穩定態勢,基本在1810位置浮動。均線糾纏,沒有明顯趨勢發生。週五受非農數據影響,價格受到較大拉動。 MACD動能信號平穩,拉到較大,5日均線向上,上升趨勢明顯。
目前均線依舊保持上揚態勢,價格處於輕微回調位置。預計週一將保持目前的1820基本位置,圍繞這一區間展開震盪。需要留意觀察5日均線的相對位置以及MACD動能的變化。
本週重要信息:
週四:20:30 美國截至9月4日當周初請失業金人數(萬)
週五:20:30 美國8月PPI年率(%)
立即按此 訂閱 每週黃金走勢分析報告,優先獲取市場最新資訊
場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.