The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week as disruptions from weather and temporary auto plant shutdowns faded. The Labor Department said Thursday that initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 235,000 in the week ended July 20. Economists predict that the number of applicants this week will be 238,000.The previous week, the number of applicants rose to the upper end of the range of 194,000-245,000 due to a surge in applications related to Hurricane Burr in Texas and temporary auto plant shutdowns. Despite the fluctuations, layoffs are still at historically low levels, and the slowdown in the labor market mainly comes from the reduction in employment caused by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023, which will cool demand.During the week of July 13, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits (the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits after initial claims, which can be used as an indicator of employment) fell by a seasonally adjusted 9,000 people to 1,851,000. The claims renewal data covers the period when the government surveyed the unemployment rate in July. The number of people renewing claims did not change much between the June and July survey weeks. As job opportunities declined, the U.S. unemployment rate rose to a 2.5-year high of 4.1% in June.The U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark overnight interest rate in a range of 5.25%-5.50% over the past year. Since 2022, it has raised interest rates by a cumulative 525 basis points to curb inflation. Financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and again in November and December. Another report from the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau showed that non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft orders, one of the important indicators of corporate investment plans, rebounded 1.0% in June after falling 0.9% in May.
上周,美国人新申请失业救济金人数比预期下降更多,因天气及临时汽车工厂停工的干扰逐渐消退。劳工部周四称,7月20日当周,经季节调整后的初次申请失业救济金人数下降10,000人至235,000人。经济学家预测,本周的申请人数将为238,000人。前一周,由于德克萨斯州与飓风伯尔有关的申请激增,以及汽车工厂临时停工,申请人数上升至194,000-245,000人的区间上端。尽管波动,但裁员仍处于历史较低水平,劳动力市场放缓主要来自于联储会2022年和2023年激进加息使需求降温导致的用工减少。在7月13日当周,领取失业救济金的人数(初次申领后的续领人数,可作为就业指标)季节性调整后下降9,000人至1,851,000人。这笔续领数据涵盖了政府调查7月失业率的时期。续领人数在6月和7月调查周之间变化不大。随着工作机会的减少,美国6月失业率上升至2.5年来的高点4.1%。美国联储会在过去一年一直维持基准隔夜利率在5.25%-5.50%的区间。自2022年以来,其已经累计加息525个基点以遏制通胀。金融市场预期,联储会将于9月降息,并在11月和12月再次降息。商务部人口普查局的另一份报告显示,6月除去飞机订单的非国防资本品订单(作为企业投资计画的重要指标之一)反弹1.0%,此前5月下降0.9%。
上週,美國人新申請失業救濟金人數比預期下降更多,因天氣及臨時汽車工廠停工的干擾逐漸消退。勞工部週四稱,7月20日當週,經季節調整後的初次申請失業救濟金人數下降10,000人至235,000人。經濟學家預測,本週的申請人數將為238,000人。前一週,由於德克薩斯州與颶風伯爾有關的申請激增,以及汽車工廠臨時停工,申請人數上升至194,000-245,000人的區間上端。儘管波動,但裁員仍處於歷史較低水平,勞動力市場放緩主要來自於聯儲會2022年和2023年激進加息使需求降溫導致的用工減少。在7月13日當週,領取失業救濟金的人數(初次申領後的續領人數,可作為就業指標)季節性調整後下降9,000人至1,851,000人。這筆續領數據涵蓋了政府調查7月失業率的時期。續領人數在6月和7月調查週之間變化不大。隨著工作機會的減少,美國6月失業率上升至2.5年來的高點4.1%。美國聯儲會在過去一年一直維持基準隔夜利率在5.25%-5.50%的區間。自2022年以來,其已經累計加息525個基點以遏制通脹。金融市場預期,聯儲會將於9月降息,並在11月和12月再次降息。商務部人口普查局的另一份報告顯示,6月除去飛機訂單的非國防資本品訂單(作為企業投資計畫的重要指標之一)反彈1.0%,此前5月下降0.9%。
Russia’s central bank will raise key interest rates by 200 basis points to 18% at a board meeting on July 26 in an effort to curb inflation and cool an overheating economy. Massive state spending, wage growth across sectors, severe labor shortages and continued growth in business and retail lending are the main factors behind inflation, which currently stands at 9.2%, well above the regulator’s 4% target.Analysts agree that a rate hike is inevitable, with three-quarters of those polled expecting a 200 basis point hike. Only a handful of analysts see a 100 basis point rise as possible.Opponents of the central bank, including industry lobbyists and bankers, accuse it of stifling economic growth at a time when the economy can grow at a faster rate than the current 5%, fueled by defense-sector spending. The Fed’s rhetoric has become tougher, with its governor, Elvira Nabiullina, saying the board will focus on the size of the rate hike rather than the need for it. The central bank said earlier that tightening monetary policy would last much longer than previously expected in order to curb inflation in a more sustainable way.Regulators are also expected to review inflation forecasts for this year, currently at 4.3-4.8%. Some analysts pointed out that the inflation rate is currently at a peak of more than 9% and will slow to 7% by the end of the year.
俄罗斯央行将在 7 月 26 日的董事会会议上将关键利率上调 200 个基点至 18%，以抑制通膨并为过热的经济降温。大规模的国家支出、各部门的薪资成长、严重的劳动力短缺以及企业和零售贷款的持续成长是通膨背后的主要因素，目前通膨率为 9.2%，远高于监管机构 4% 的目标。分析师都认为升息是不可避免的，四分之三的受访分析师预计升息幅度将达到 200 个基点。只少数分析师认为有可能上涨 100 个基点。央行的产业游说者和银行家中的反对者指责央行抑制经济成长，而此时经济在国防部门支出的推动下可以以高于当前 5% 的速度增长。的言辞变得强硬，其行长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，董事会将重点关注加息的规模，而不是加息的必要性。央行稍早表示，为了以更永续的方式遏制通膨，紧缩货币政策的持续时间比先前预计的要长得多。预计监管机构也将审查今年的通膨预测，目前为 4.3-4.8%。有分析师指出，目前通膨率正处于9%以上的峰值，年底将放缓至7%。
俄羅斯央行將在 7 月 26 日的董事會會議上將關鍵利率上調 200 個基點至 18%，以抑制通膨並為過熱的經濟降溫。大規模的國家支出、各部門的薪資成長、嚴重的勞動力短缺以及企業和零售貸款的持續成長是通膨背後的主要因素，目前通膨率為 9.2%，遠高於監管機構 4% 的目標。分析師都認為升息是不可避免的，四分之三的受訪分析師預計升息幅度將達到 200 個基點。只少數分析師認為有可能上漲 100 個基點。央行的產業遊說者和銀行家中的反對者指責央行抑制經濟成長，而此時經濟在國防部門支出的推動下可以以高於當前 5% 的速度增長。的言辭變得強硬，其行長埃爾維拉·納比烏林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，董事會將重點關注加息的規模，而不是加息的必要性。央行稍早表示，為了以更永續的方式遏制通膨，緊縮貨幣政策的持續時間比先前預計的要長得多。預計監管機構也將審查今年的通膨預測，目前為 4.3-4.8%。有分析師指出，目前通膨率正處於9%以上的峰值，年底將放緩至7%。
Entering a consolidation cycle after gold failed to stay above 2450.
Gold price broke through the previous historical high of 2450(1) early last week on Tuesday, triggering a round of buying and rising to a weekly high of 2483 within 24 hours. However, the upward momentum failed to carry on at a high level. According to the market data from CME, gold futures showed significant new short positions entering the market on Wednesday. Short-selling accelerated after the U.S. released manufacturing data on Thursday, when the price fell below the key support of 2450(2), and the market closed near 2400 before the weekend. After the false break above 2450, it will be hard for gold to return back above 2450 in the near term without any consolidation. This week, focus on Thursday and Friday’s U.S. GDP and the core inflation data.
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1-hr chart > Gold price supports the previous week’s low of 2390-2400. Before the next move, take advantage of the 2391-2440(3) range early this week. If the gold price breaks below 2385(4), the downside target will be 2350(5).
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Daily chart > The decline in gold prices is accelerating, with a single-day drop of more than $40 on Friday. The short-term support is at 2400(7), and the lower target can grasp the 20-day moving average.
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Weekly chart > Gold prices are on a L-T upward trend that originated from 2018. Last week’s peak has created a reversal signal on the chart (10). The target below can now be aimed at the bottom of the range 2300 (11).
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国际金价上周先升后回落。早段周二受较弱的美国零售数据带动，突破前历史高位2450(1)，触发了一轮买盘，24小时内升至全周最高2483。但上升动力未有在高位持续。芝商所交易数据显示，金价在周三出现明显短仓沽盘，市场开始出现高位短仓。周四美公布制造业数据之后，价格趋势正式转弱，当日收市前失守关键支持2450(2)，全周最终回到2400收盘。金价上周尝试突破前高2450失败，预期短期难以再试新高，需要进入调整周期。本周需重点关注周四、五美国的季度GDP及核心通胀数据。
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1小时图 > 短线金价正支持于前周低位2390-2400，本周早段以2391-2440(3)为操作区间。若金价下破2385(4)，下方目标会在2350(5)。
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日线图 > 金价下跌速度在加快，周五单日下跌超过40美元，短线支持在2400(7)，下方目标可把握20天移动平均线。
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周线图 > 金价正行走在源自2018年的长线上升通道当中。上周的先升后跌在周线图形成了明显的见顶讯号(10)，中线下方目标留意区间底部2300(11)。
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國際金價上週先升後回落。早段週二受較弱的美國零售數據帶動，突破前歷史高位2450(1)，觸發了一輪買盤，24小時內升至全週最高2483。但上升動力未有在高位持續。芝商所交易數據顯示，金價在週三出現明顯短倉沽盤，市場開始出現高位短倉。週四美公佈制造業數據之後，價格趨勢正式轉弱，當日收市前失守關鍵支持2450(2)，全週最終回到2400收盤。金價上週嘗試突破前高2450失敗，預期短期難以再試新高，需要進入調整週期。本週需重點關注週四、五美國的季度GDP及核心通脹數據。
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1小時圖 > 短線金價正支持於前週低位2390-2400，本週早段以2391-2440(3)為操作區間。若金價下破2385(4)，下方目標會在2350(5)。
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日線圖 > 金價下跌速度在加快，週五單日下跌超過40美元，短線支持在2400(7)，下方目標可把握20天移動平均線。
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週線圖 > 金價正行走在源自2018年的長線上升通道當中。上週的先升後跌在週線圖形成了明顯的見頂訊號(10)，中線下方目標留意區間底部2300(11)。
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上周一开市回调到之前提及的2405后，出现反弹并延续上升趋势，这位置是前顶的一个发力位加上是0.618的范围，是一个不错的入市位。周三美盘形成有力的双顶，而且位置是4H或日图的大型通道顶，跌穿横行后周四回调到横行的中线位，刚好又是0.618范围，向下做仓又是一个靓位。由于在大图的转弯位上车，有机会可能坐一个大图的波段，第一关横行1:1/前顶到达后可减少量仓位，留多些搏更大回报。现价2400的整数支持位，又是4H图的前顶和大型通道的中线位。由于上周出现大动能下跌，跌了80多元而中途没回调，下周开始时有机会向上回调先，所以短线在细图可等向上出力量后找位入。 2430/2440/2450都是较明显的阻力位，向上做的就留意仓位管理，向下做的就可留意价格到这里后有没有力量反弹。从日图看虽然下跌力量大，但由于未跌穿2392这范围，大方向先当震荡先会较好，直到穿了再望通道底。K.LAM风险提示: 场外式黄金/白银交易涉及高度风险，未必适合所有投资者。高度的杠杆可为阁下带来负面或正面的影响。阁下在决定买卖场外式黄金/白银之前应审慎考虑自己的投资目标、交易经验以及风险接受程度。可能出现的情况包括蒙受部分或全部初始投资额的损失，或在极端情况下（例如相关市场跳空）产生更多的损失。因此，阁下不应将无法承受损失的资金用于投资。投资应知悉买卖场外式黄金/白银有关的一切风险，如有需要，请向独立财务顾问寻求意见。市场资料仅供参考，MAX Online 绝不保证分析内容的准确性。