Canadian retail sales fell more than expected in May as consumers spent less at supermarkets and grocery retailers amid rising food prices and high interest rates, data released Friday showed.Retail sales, which include autos, clothing, furniture, food and beverages, fell 0.8% in May from the previous month, reversing a 0.6% gain in April, Statistics Canada said. Preliminary estimates for June retail sales, which polled only half of respondents, showed sales may have fallen 0.3%. Retail sales excluding auto and parts dealers, which account for more than a quarter of total sales, fell 1.3%.Analysts had forecast sales could fall 0.6% in May and estimated a 0.5% drop excluding autos and parts. Sales at food and beverage retailers, which account for nearly a fifth of total sales, fell 1.9%, the report said, mainly due to a sharp drop in purchases at supermarkets and grocery retailers.Total retail sales in May were C$66.13 billion ($48.2 billion), with eight of the nine subsectors declining.
週五公佈的數據顯示，在食品價格持續上漲和高利率的背景下，由於消費者在超市和食品雜貨零售商的支出減少，加拿大 5 月份零售額下降幅度超過預期。加拿大統計局表示，零售額（包括汽車、服裝、家具、食品和飲料等）5 月環比下降 0.8%，扭轉了 4 月 0.6% 的成長勢頭。 6 月的零售額僅調查了一半受訪者的初步估計，顯示銷售額可能下降 0.3%。不包括汽車和零件經銷商的零售額（佔總銷售額的四分之一以上）下降了 1.3%。分析師曾預測 5 月銷售額可能下降 0.6%，並估計不包括汽車和零件的銷售額將下降 0.5%。報告稱，食品和飲料零售商的銷售額下降了 1.9%，這部分銷售額佔總銷售額的近五分之一，主要原因是超市和雜貨零售商的購買量大幅下降。5 月零售總額為 661.3 億加元（482 億美元），九個子產業中有八個下滑。
周五公布的数据显示，在食品价格持续上涨和高利率的背景下，由于消费者在超市和食品杂货零售商的支出减少，加拿大 5 月份零售额下降幅度超过预期。加拿大统计局表示，零售额（包括汽车、服装、家具、食品和饮料等）5 月份环比下降 0.8%，扭转了 4 月份 0.6% 的增长势头。6 月份的零售额仅调查了一半受访者的初步估计，显示销售额可能下降 0.3%。不包括汽车和零部件经销商的零售额（占总销售额的四分之一以上）下降了 1.3%。分析师曾预测 5 月份销售额可能下降 0.6%，并估计不包括汽车和零部件的销售额将下降 0.5%。报告称，食品和饮料零售商的销售额下降了 1.9%，这部分销售额占总销售额的近五分之一，主要原因是超市和杂货零售商的购买量大幅下降。5 月份零售总额为 661.3 亿加元（482 亿美元），九个子行业中有八个出现下滑。
美國 6 月零售額持平，基本趨勢強勁，可能提振第二季經濟成長預期。美國商務部人口普查局週二表示，上個月零售額持平，此前 5 月零售額上調至成長 0.3%。不過，銷售前景並不樂觀。家庭對價格越來越敏感，並關注基本需求，這在主要零售商和製造商的收益報告中顯而易見。大多數家庭已經耗盡了新冠疫情期間累積的超額儲蓄，並背負著大量信用卡債務，隨著利率持續走高，這些債務變得越來越昂貴。隨著勞動市場降溫，薪資成長也放緩。儘管如此，消費者支出的速度仍足以讓經濟擴張保持在正軌上。不包括汽車、汽油、建築材料和食品服務的零售額上個月飆升了 0.9%，5 月成長了 0.4%。這些所謂的核心零售額與國內生產毛額的消費者支出部分最為接近。在零售額數據公佈之前，4 月至 6 月季度的成長預期約為 2%。第一季經濟成長率為 1.4%。
U.S. retail sales were flat in June, with a strong underlying trend that could boost second-quarter economic growth expectations. Retail sales were flat last month after an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in May, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said Tuesday.The sales outlook, however, is grim. Households are becoming more price-sensitive and focusing on basic needs, as evident in earnings reports from major retailers and manufacturers. Most households have used up excess savings built up during the pandemic and are carrying large amounts of credit card debt that are becoming increasingly expensive as interest rates remain elevated. Wage growth is also slowing as the labor market cools. Still, the pace of consumer spending remains strong enough to keep the economic expansion on track.Retail sales excluding autos, gasoline, building materials and food services surged 0.9% last month and rose 0.4% in May. These so-called core retail sales are closest to the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Before the retail sales data were released, expectations for growth in the April-June quarter were around 2%. The economy grew at a 1.4% pace in the first quarter.
美国 6 月零售额持平，基本趋势强劲，这可能提振第二季度经济增长预期。美国商务部人口普查局周二表示，上个月零售额持平，此前 5 月零售额上调至增长 0.3%。不过，销售前景不容乐观。家庭对价格越来越敏感，关注基本需求，这在主要零售商和制造商的收益报告中显而易见。大多数家庭已经耗尽了新冠疫情期间积累的超额储蓄，并背负着大量信用卡债务，随着利率持续走高，这些债务变得越来越昂贵。随着劳动力市场降温，工资增长也在放缓。尽管如此，消费者支出的速度仍然足以让经济扩张保持正轨。不包括汽车、汽油、建筑材料和食品服务的零售额上个月飙升了 0.9%，5 月份增长了 0.4%。这些所谓的核心零售额与国内生产总值的消费者支出部分最为接近。在零售额数据公布之前，4 月至 6 月季度的增长预期约为 2%。第一季度经济增长率为 1.4%。
The gold price was stimulated by the easing inflation data from the US last week, breaking through the post-non-farm resistance of 2391(2) and touching a four-week high of 2424. Referring to CME gold futures’ data, the total number of Open Interest last Friday reached the highest level of 540k contracts, which is above the 530k contracts at the time of the record high of 2450 in May, a bullish sign as more funds are now attracted by the gold market. Not many important economic figures are scheduled to be released this week. Let’s see if the price can stay above 2391 this week. The longer the price remains at around 2400, the more investors will be ready for a new high.
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1-hr Chart > The price of gold is still running in the ascending channel (1), originating from the end of June. After breaking through the resistance (2) last Thur, the high and low in the past 48 hours have formed a side-way channel (3). Without any critical economic data this week, we can take advantage of the 2319-2425(3) range at the beginning of this week. It must be noted that a new round of selling will trigger if the price clears the support of 2391(2), and the downside target can be set around 2358-60(4).
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Daily Chart > The range of 2277-2431(7) now dominates as the price trades above 2380. The Cup & Handle (6) pattern is yet to be confirmed. If the gold price can clear the resistance (6) in the next two weeks, a new round of M-T buying will begin.
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国际金价上周受美国放缓的通胀数据刺激，突破前周非农后阻力2391(2)，冲到4周最高2424。参考芝商所期金未平仓合约数据，上周五的未平仓合约总数已达近年最高的54万张，比起5月历史高位2450时的53万张更多，反映有更多资金已流入金市，是金市强势讯号。本周没有太多的重要美国数据，但只要金价能站稳2391之上，市场将开始适应2400以上的价格，未来2周将有望再创新高。
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1小时图 > 金价仍运行在6月尾展开的上升通道(1)当中，上周四突破阻力(2)之后，过去48小时的高低位已形成横行通道(3)。在本周未有太多重要数据的情况下，初步操作可把握2319-2425(3)。必须留意本周若失守关键支持2391(2)，金价将触发一轮调整，下方目标可设在2358-60(4)附近。
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日线图 > 金价升到2380(5)之上，结构上暂时仍以横行区间2277-2431(7)主导。 Cup & Handle(6)形态正在酝酿中，未来2周若金价能往上突破，金价的新一轮的中线升浪将会展开。
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國際金價上週受美國放緩的通脹數據刺激，突破前週非農後阻力2391(2)，沖到4週最高2424。參考芝商所期金未平倉合約數據，上週五的未平倉合約總數已達近年最高的54萬張，比起5月歷史高位2450時的53萬張更多，反映有更多資金已流入金市，是金市強勢訊號。本週沒有太多的重要美國數據，但只要金價能站穩2391之上，市場將開始適應2400以上的價格，未來2週將有望再創新高。
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1小時圖 > 金價仍運行在6月尾展開的上升通道(1)當中，上週四突破阻力(2)之後，過去48小時的高低位已形成橫行通道(3)。在本週未有太多重要數據的情況下，初步操作可把握2319-2425(3)。必須留意本週若失守關鍵支持2391(2)，金價將觸發一輪調整，下方目標可設在2358-60(4)附近。
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日線圖 > 金價升到2380(5)之上，結構上暫時仍以橫行區間2277-2431(7)主導。Cup & Handle(6)形態正在醞釀中，未來2週若金價能往上突破，金價的新一輪的中線升浪將會展開。
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上周一开市后先向下回调到早前提及的2369，可惜反弹的力量不强，之后大动能向下跌穿到达下个支持2353附近。由于加速下跌到支持位，有机会消耗尽向下的动能，而且从大图看会倾向向上做仓，所以看见有力反弹都可积极尝试。周二美盘时段会是一个不错的机会，5M图看到型成横行后在底部发力，亦算是假突破，在假突破位置是一个不错的入市位，头关先看横行顶。周四数据公布后，大动能破前顶和2405阻力，5M图可看见在下跌通道底又出现急跌急升，延续上升机会大增，即市可在支持位尝试。现价2411,1H图可看见回测前顶2392后反弹有力但未破最近前顶2424，虽大方向仍是看上会较有优势，但下周先出现震荡后再上也很正常。下周如向下行先，可在细图留意2405附近，这是细图一个较强的支持位，如成功反弹第一关先看2424。若有力跌穿可先看2387-2424的震荡区间。 2378是最后突破力量的发力位，若跌穿此位则会回调较深但应该机会较少。K.LAM风险提示: 场外式黄金/白银交易涉及高度风险，未必适合所有投资者。高度的杠杆可为阁下带来负面或正面的影响。阁下在决定买卖场外式黄金/白银之前应审慎考虑自己的投资目标、交易经验以及风险接受程度。可能出现的情况包括蒙受部分或全部初始投资额的损失，或在极端情况下（例如相关市场跳空）产生更多的损失。因此，阁下不应将无法承受损失的资金用于投资。投资应知悉买卖场外式黄金/白银有关的一切风险，如有需要，请向独立财务顾问寻求意见。市场资料仅供参考，MAX Online 绝不保证分析内容的准确性。