U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly remained unchanged in May as gasoline prices fell, but inflation may still be too high for the Fed to start cutting interest rates before September amid continued strength in the labor market.Consumer price index data released Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics remained unchanged, with consumer prices rising 0.3% in April. CPI has been trending downward since reliable data became available in February and March. Price pressures are likely to continue to ease as major retailers including Target (TGT.N) slash prices on items from food to diapers with new tabs to appeal to inflation-weary consumers .Although annual gains in consumer prices have slowed from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The government reported last week that job growth accelerated in May and wages rose, but the unemployment rate rose to 4%. Fed officials are expected later Wednesday to keep the benchmark overnight rate at its current range of 5.25%-5.50%, where it has been since July.Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised policy rates by 525 basis points. Financial markets expect the Fed to begin an easing cycle in September, although that belief is waning. Some economists favor a rate cut in December, but others are less sure borrowing costs will be lower this year.
由于汽油价格下跌，美国 5 月消费者物价意外保持不变，但在劳动力市场持续强劲的背景下，通涨可能仍然过高，联准会无法在 9 月之前开始降息。美国劳工部劳工统计局周三公布的消费者物价指数数据保持不变，4 月消费者物价指数上涨 0.3%。自 2 月和 3 月公布可靠数据以来，CPI 一直呈下降趋势。随着包括塔吉特(Target) (TGT.N) 在内的主要零售商为吸引厌倦通膨的消费者而开设新标签，大幅削减从食品到尿布等商品的价格，价格压力可能会继续缓解。尽管消费者物价的年度涨幅已从 2022 年 6 月 9.1% 的峰值放缓，但通涨仍高于联准会 2% 的目标。政府上周报告称，5 月就业成长加速，薪资上涨，但失业率升至 4%。预计联准会官员将于周三晚些时候将基准隔夜利率维持在目前 5.25%-5.50% 的范围内，自 7 月以来一直处于这一水平。自2022年3月以来，联准会已将政策利率提高了525个基点。金融市场预计联准会将于 9 月开始宽松周期，尽管这种信念正在减弱。一些经济学家倾向于在 12 月降息，但其他经济学家则不太确定今年借贷成本是否会降低。
由於汽油價格下跌，美國 5 月消費者物價意外保持不變，但在勞動力市場持續強勁的背景下，通漲可能仍然過高，聯準會無法在 9 月之前開始降息。美國勞工部勞工統計局週三公佈的消費者物價指數數據保持不變，4 月消費者物價指數上漲 0.3%。自 2 月和 3 月公佈可靠數據以來，CPI 一直呈下降趨勢。隨著包括塔吉特 (Target) (TGT.N) 在內的主要零售商為吸引厭倦通膨的消費者而開設新標籤，大幅削減從食品到尿布等商品的價格，價格壓力可能會繼續緩解。儘管消費者物價的年度漲幅已從 2022 年 6 月 9.1% 的峰值放緩，但通漲仍高於聯準會 2% 的目標。政府上週報告稱，5 月就業成長加速，薪資上漲，但失業率升至 4%。預計聯準會官員將於週三晚些時候將基準隔夜利率維持在目前 5.25%-5.50% 的範圍內，自 7 月以來一直處於這一水平。自2022年3月以來，聯準會已將政策利率提高了525個基點。金融市場預計聯準會將於 9 月開始寬鬆週期，儘管這種信念正在減弱。一些經濟學家傾向於在 12 月降息，但其他經濟學家則不太確定今年借貸成本是否會降低。
国际金价上周先升后跌，在周五做出近月最大单日跌幅(单日波幅99美元/下跌82美元)。上周初整体合乎预期在2320-60(1)区间内震荡，直至周三公布小非农做差过后，周四早段亚盘往上突破。突破区间顶部(2)触发了一轮买盘，24小时后做出全周最高2387(3)。但金价在周五欧盘已开始回落，失守前区间顶部支持(4)，重回区间(1)内部。当晚公布美国就业数据过后随即往下突破，失守2320(5)后到达目标2300。收盘贴近全周最低2286。金市状况如上周所提及，正在获利平仓调整周期当中。芝交所(COMEX)每日公布的未平仓合约(Open Interest)最新显示，资金继续流出金市，未平仓合约进一步下跌至44万张。相比金价创历史高位之时的53万张少了约9万张，暂时未有太多资金重新买入，预期短线仍有下跌空间。本周关键是周三的美国通胀数据及香港时间周四凌晨的美联储议息会议。周初市场等待消息，短线可把握区间操作。中线金价仍以调整为主，但本周大量的不确定性将令金价大幅波动，把握波动时弹出的高位，中线策略继续以高位沽空为主。
1小时图 > 现时关键支持在早前低位2280-85(6)，突破前可把握2280-2320(7)区间操作。若成功突破这支持区将会触发新一轮沽空盘，金价进一步往下。
日线图 > 上周早段形成的上升通道在周五完成突破(9)，周五在贴近全日最低位收市，反映收市前仍是沽空主导，日内将再试新低。短线支持在上次低位2277(10)，本周中后段若成功突破2277(10)，下方第一目标会在50%调整-2216(11)。
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國際金價上週先升後跌，在週五做出近月最大單日跌幅(單日波幅99美元/下跌82美元)。上週初整體合乎預期在2320-60(1)區間內震蕩，直至週三公佈小非農做差過後，週四早段亞盤往上突破。突破區間頂部(2)觸發了一輪買盤，24小時後做出全週最高2387(3)。但金價在週五歐盤已開始回落，失守前區間頂部支持(4)，重回區間(1)內部。當晚公佈美國就業數據過後隨即往下突破，失守2320(5)後到達目標2300。收盤貼近全週最低2286。金市狀況如上週所提及，正在獲利平倉調整週期當中。芝交所(COMEX)每日公佈的未平倉合約(Open Interest)最新顯示，資金繼續流出金市，未平倉合約進一步下跌至44萬張。相比金價創歷史高位之時的53萬張少了約9萬張，暫時未有太多資金重新買入，預期短線仍有下跌空間。本週關鍵是週三的美國通脹數據及香港時間週四凌晨的美聯儲議息會議。週初市場等待消息，短線可把握區間操作。中線金價仍以調整為主，但本週大量的不確定性將令金價大幅波動，把握波動時彈出的高位，中線策略繼續以高位沽空為主。
1小時圖 > 現時關鍵支持在早前低位2280-85(6)，突破前可把握2280-2320(7)區間操作。若成功突破這支持區將會觸發新一輪沽空盤，金價進一步往下。
日線圖 > 上週早段形成的上升通道在週五完成突破(9)，週五在貼近全日最低位收市，反映收市前仍是沽空主導，日內將再試新低。短線支持在上次低位2277(10)，本週中後段若成功突破2277(10)，下方第一目標會在50%調整-2216(11)。
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Gold price experienced the largest single-day decline in recent months last Friday, downed by $82. The price stayed within the range of 2320-2360(1) early last week until Wednesday after a disappointing ADP employment figure was released. It cleared the resistance(2) in the Asian session on Thursday. The breakout triggered a new round of buying, resulting in a weekly high of 2387(3) within 24 hours. However, the gold price started selling at the European session on Friday, again back into the previous sideways range(1). After the release of US employment data that evening, the price fell below 2320(5) and touched our target of 2300, closing at the weekly low near 2286.
As mentioned last week, the gold market is in a profit-taking cycle. The latest data from the COMEX gold futures shows that the open interest continues to decline, at 440,000 contracts now. This is about 90,000 contracts less than the peak when gold prices reached a historical high a few weeks back. This indicates that the long buying is still on the limited side, and there is still room for further decline. The key events this week are the US inflation data and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Take advantage of a range-bound market while investors are waiting for these economic figures at the beginning of the week. From the M-T perspective, gold prices are still in the phase of consolidation. It will be a good chance to short-sell the market if the high level of uncertainty this week leads to a jump in gold prices.
1-hr chart > The key support level is at the previous low of 2280-2285(6). Expect the price to be bounded within the range of 2280-2320(7), while the market is waiting for Wednesday’s news. A new round of selling will be triggered if the price breaks through the support zone(6).
Daily Chart > Gold cleared the ascending channel(9) last week. The closing near the weekly low on Friday indicates that the selling is still dominating the market, and the price might have another attempt to the low in the next 2 days. In S-T, support lies at the previous low of 2277 (10). If there is a successful breakthrough below 2277(10) later this week, the first target can be set at the 50% retracement level around 2216(11).
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上周一价格跌到2315后反弹，15M图看到价格在下跌通道底反弹并造了一个小横行的假突破，短线的话是一个不错的机会，目标可先看跌段的0.618，亦是小横行1:1距离。周二美盘再次在2315反弹并升到上周提及的2375阻力位，由于大图早前的下跌力量强劲，所以这位置若出现力量反弹，延续下跌的机会会大增。最后周五出了假突破并回测横行顶后便急速向下，头关看前底，因为大机会延续大图趋势，所以可以留多些仓位看更远。现价2293，从日图看下跌力量强劲并延续早前的下跌趋势，虽然破底机会较大，但都要看关键位2280(大图前底)，若在细图有力反弹，短线可先当回调做一波，目标可先看2300/2315。若直接跌穿2280并回调力弱，则中长线可留意阻力位有否出现向下动能。K.LAM风险提示: 场外式黄金/白银交易涉及高度风险，未必适合所有投资者。高度的杠杆可为阁下带来负面或正面的影响。阁下在决定买卖场外式黄金/白银之前应审慎考虑自己的投资目标、交易经验以及风险接受程度。可能出现的情况包括蒙受部分或全部初始投资额的损失，或在极端情况下（例如相关市场跳空）产生更多的损失。因此，阁下不应将无法承受损失的资金用于投资。投资应知悉买卖场外式黄金/白银有关的一切风险，如有需要，请向独立财务顾问寻求意见。市场资料仅供参考，MAX Online 绝不保证分析内容的准确性。
欧洲央行周四上调了部分经济成长和通膨预期，预计物价成长将在稍后恢复至 2% 的目标。欧洲央行透过创纪录的一系列升息抑制了失控的通膨，周四进行了自2019 年以来的首次降息，随着经济从疫情和俄罗斯乌克兰战争相关的一系列冲击中恢复正常，预计还会进一步宽松。使用欧元的 20 个国家的经济成长在经历一年多的停滞后于今年年初出现反弹，但今年仍将相对疲软，2025 年可能只会小幅加速。目前预计明年通膨率为 2.2%，高于先前预测的 2.0%，并且要到 2026 年才能达到目标，这表明实现目标的「最后一哩路」可能比曾经的希望更艰难。
歐洲央行週四上調了部分經濟成長和通膨預期，預計物價成長將在稍後恢復至 2% 的目標。歐洲央行透過創紀錄的一系列升息抑制了失控的通膨，週四進行了自2019 年以來的首次降息，隨著經濟從疫情和俄羅斯烏克蘭戰爭相關的一系列衝擊中恢復正常，預計還會進一步寬鬆。使用歐元的 20 個國家的經濟成長在經歷一年多的停滯後於今年年初出現反彈，但今年仍將相對疲軟，2025 年可能只會小幅加速。目前預計明年通膨率為 2.2%，高於先前預測的 2.0%，並且要到 2026 年才能達到目標，這表明實現目標的「最後一哩路」可能比曾經的希望更艱難。
A long-term slump in euro zone manufacturing may have turned around last month, a survey showed, improving business sentiment by showing new orders fell at the slowest pace in two years. HCOB’s final Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) compiled by S&P Global rose to 47.3 in May from 45.7 in April, below the 50 mark, showing economic activity growing for the 23rd consecutive month. That was slightly lower than the initial estimate of 47.4.The index measuring output, which will be included in Wednesday’s composite PMI and is seen as a good gauge of the economy’s health, jumped to a 14-month high of 49.3 from 47.3 in April, although it was below an initial forecast of 49.6. This improvement may be at least partly due to a rebound in the new orders index, a measure of demand, from 44.1 to a two-year high of 47.3. Falling production costs are once again allowing factories to lower the prices they charge, which could give the European Central Bank room to cut interest rates on Thursday, a move widely expected as inflation eases.