金價上週勢不可檔，週一先突破12月尾高位2088，週四再升穿歷史高位2147，而週五就算美國非農公佈比預期更好，數據消化後在收市前亦繼續沖高，做出歷史新高2195，全週收盤在2178。本週二、四美國將公佈核心CPI及零售銷售數據，若通脹放緩及數據做差，金價將繼續走高。
1小時圖 – 今早亞盤金價再試2190後未有突破，現時阻力在2190(1)。自上週突破2147-50阻力後，過去48小時剛形成了短暫的上升通道(3)，若週二數據後，金價脫離上升通道(3)，交易區間可定在2155-85(2)。
日線圖 – 黃金自上週突破12月高位2088(4)後升勢正式開始，以早前調整區間1比1作估算(4.1)，目標2190已到。金價中線走勢現時已接近上升通道(5)頂部。上週五黃金沖高回落(6)，留意未來48小時若金價收盤在2178之上，會是金價繼續沖高的第一個訊號；否則初步回落且標可定在2147-50。
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U.S. job openings fell slightly in January, while hiring also declined as labor market conditions continued to gradually ease. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, fell by 26,000 to 8.863 million on the last day of January, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report.December’s data was revised downward to show 8.889 million job openings, instead of the 9.026 million previously reported. Economists predict there will be 8.9 million job openings in January. In March 2022, job vacancies peaked at a record 12 million. Recruitment fell by 100,000 jobs to 5,687,000. The number of resignations in January was 3.385 million, a decrease of 54,000.In prepared remarks to lawmakers on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed expected to begin cutting interest rates this year, but warned that there was uncertainty about the economic outlook and that continued progress toward the 2% inflation target was unlikely. uncertain. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised its policy interest rate by 525 basis points to the current range of 5.25%-5.50%. The Labor Department is expected to report Friday that nonfarm payrolls rose by 200,000 in February, according to a survey of economists. The economy added 353,000 jobs in January. Job growth has slowed from the strong pace in 2022, but wage gains are well above the roughly 100,000 jobs needed each month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%, with annual wage growth slowing to 4.4% from 4.5% in January.
美国一月职缺小幅下降，而随着劳动市场状况持续逐步缓解，招募人数也有所下降。 美国劳工部劳工统计局周三在其月度职位空缺和劳动力流动率调查（JOLTS）报告中表示，1 月份最后一天，衡量劳动力需求的职位空缺减少了 26,000 个，至 886.3 万个。 12 月的数据被下调，显示空缺职位为 888.9 万，而不是先前报告的 902.6 万。 经济学家预测 1 月将有 890 万个职缺。 2022 年 3 月，职缺达到创纪录的 1,200 万个高峰。 招募人数减少 10 万个，至 5,68.7 万个。 1月辞职人数为338.5万人，减少5.4万人。 联准会主席鲍威尔周三在向议员发表的事先准备好的讲话中表示，联准会预计今年将开始降息，但他警告称，经济前景存在不确定性，实现2% 通膨目标的持续进展 并不确定。 自2022年3月以来，联准会已将政策利率调高525个基点至目前的5.25%-5.50%区间。 预计美国劳工部周五将报告称，根据经济学家的调查，2 月非农业就业人数将增加 20 万人。 1月经济增加了353,000个职位。 就业成长较 2022 年的强劲步伐放缓，但薪资增幅远高于每月所需的约 10 万个就业岗位，以跟上劳动年龄人口的增长。 失业率预计维持在 3.7% 不变，年工资成长率从 1 月的 4.5% 放缓至 4.4%。
美國一月職缺小幅下降，而隨著勞動市場狀況持續逐步緩解，招募人數也有所下降。美國勞工部勞工統計局週三在其月度職位空缺和勞動力流動率調查（JOLTS）報告中表示，1 月份最後一天，衡量勞動力需求的職位空缺減少了 26,000 個，至 886.3 萬個。 12 月的數據被下調，顯示空缺職位為 888.9 萬，而不是先前報告的 902.6 萬。 經濟學家預測 1 月將有 890 萬個職缺。 2022 年 3 月，職缺達到創紀錄的 1,200 萬個高峰。招募人數減少 10 萬個，至 5,68.7 萬個。1月辭職人數為338.5萬人，減少5.4萬人。 聯準會主席鮑威爾週三在向議員發表的事先準備好的講話中表示，聯準會預計今年將開始降息，但他警告稱，經濟前景存在不確定性，實現2% 通膨目標的持續進展並不確定。 自2022年3月以來，聯準會已將政策利率調高525個基點至目前的5.25%-5.50%區間。預計美國勞工部週五將報告稱，根據經濟學家的調查，2 月非農業就業人數將增加 20 萬人。 1月經濟增加了353,000個職位。就業成長較 2022 年的強勁步伐放緩，但薪資增幅遠高於每月所需的約 10 萬個就業崗位，以跟上勞動年齡人口的增長。失業率預計維持在 3.7% 不變，年工資成長率從 1 月的 4.5% 放緩至 4.4%。
根据官方媒体报道，中国国务院周五批准了一项旨在促进大规模装备升级和消费品销售的计划。 该计划是在最近的共产党会议上概述的，是中国为提振经济而采取的一系列措施之一，自 COVID-19 大流行以来，中国经济一直复苏疲软。 内阁表示，政府将推出新的推动措施，促进消费品以旧换新。 官方媒体引述国务院总理李强主持的内阁会议的话说：“我们要抓紧完善规划，精心组织实施，推动先进产能比重不断提高。”“更多优质耐用消费品将进入居民生活。” 法国兴业银行分析师估计，在 2009 年至 2011 年的类似计画中，政府向家电购买者提供了约 400 亿元人民币（56 亿美元）的补贴。 分析师在一份报告中表示：“仅根据更大的GDP 规模进行调整，补贴到2024 年至少需要达到600 亿元，才能达到上一轮的水平。”“投资将继续受到财政的大力支持 。” 中国人大预计将在周二开始的年度会议上公布旨在稳定增长的温和刺激计划，但可能会让那些呼吁制定详细路线图、采取大胆措施解决中国深度结构性失衡的人感到失望。
According to state media reports, China’s cabinet has approved a plan to promote the upgrading of large-scale equipment and sales of consumer goods. This plan is part of a broader effort by China to stimulate its economy, which has been experiencing weak recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic.The government intends to launch a new initiative to encourage the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, with the aim of increasing the proportion of advanced production capacity. The cabinet meeting, chaired by Premier Li Qiang, emphasized the need to promptly improve and implement the plan to ensure the continuous introduction of high-quality and durable consumer goods into the lives of residents.During a previous similar scheme between 2009 and 2011, the Chinese government provided subsidies of around 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) to buyers of home appliances. Analysts at Societe Generale estimate that to match the significance of the previous round of subsidies, subsidies in 2024 would need to reach at least 60 billion yuan, considering the larger size of China’s GDP.China’s parliament is expected to unveil moderate stimulus plans during its annual meeting, which begins on Tuesday. However, there may be some disappointment among those expecting a detailed roadmap of bold measures to address the country’s deep structural imbalances.
根據官方媒體報道，中國國務院週五批准了一項旨在促進大規模裝備升級和消費品銷售的計劃。該計劃是在最近的共產黨會議上概述的，是中國為提振經濟而採取的一系列措施之一，自 COVID-19 大流行以來，中國經濟一直復甦疲軟。內閣表示，政府將推出新的推動措施，促進消費品以舊換新。 官方媒體引述國務院總理李強主持的內閣會議的話說：“我們要抓緊完善規劃，精心組織實施，推動先進產能比重不斷提高。”“更多優質耐用消費品將進入居民生活。” 法國興業銀行分析師估計，在 2009 年至 2011 年的類似計畫中，政府向家電購買者提供了約 400 億元人民幣（56 億美元）的補貼。分析師在一份報告中表示：“僅根據更大的 GDP 規模進行調整，補貼到 2024 年至少需要達到 600 億元，才能達到上一輪的水平。”“投資將繼續受到財政的大力支持。” 中國人大預計將在周二開始的年度會議上公佈旨在穩定增長的溫和刺激計劃，但可能會讓那些呼籲制定詳細路線圖、採取大膽措施解決中國深度結構性失衡的人感到失望。
A series of US data was released last week. The durable goods orders and 4Q GDP announced early on Tue’s and Wed’s were both below market expectations. However, the price of gold remained in a narrow range. It wasn’t until Thur’s release of the core PCE price index that the gold price finally broke clear the resistance zone of 2035-40. On Fri, a new round of buying was triggered after a weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI pushed the price to the recent high of 2088.
The latest CME FedWatch indicates that the probability of a rate cut in May is now around 27%, while the likelihood for June has risen to around 70%. The rate cut news/rumours will push the gold price higher, however, the 2088 resistance still needs to be clear. Once the price passes 2088, the 1st target can be set at around 2045. A strict stop-loss order should be in place if you choose to short-selling above 2080.
1-Hour Chart – Gold has triggered a round of buying after escaping the triangle pattern (1) last Thur. The upward momentum has accelerated on Fri’s US session, passing the early Feb high of 2065(2) and reaching the Dec high of 2088(3). The buying momentum failed to carry on at the early Asian session back from the weekend. A high-volume market condition is needed for gold to clear the 2088 resistance, pay attention to Tue’s non-manufacturing PMI, Wed.’s Powell speech. Consider the trading range of 2065-88(4) for now.
Daily Chart – Gold escapes downward channel (4) last week, and the M-T trend shifted from a downtrend to a sideways consolidation, where the range has expanded from 1985-2065(5) to 1985-2088(5.1). The price needs to break above 2088 in terms of structure to initiate a new round of buying orders.
S-T ressitance 3
2100
S-T ressitance 2
2095
S-T ressitance 1
2085-88
Market price
2080
S-T support 1
2070
S-T support 2
2065
S-T support 3
2018-20
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Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
上週一連串的美國數據…早段週二、三公佈的耐用品訂單及第四季度GDP都不如預期，但金價維持有窄幅區間震蕩。直到週四公佈核心PCE通脹數字，金價終於突破近一週的阻力區2035-40。週五公佈比預期更弱的制造業PMI，金價繼續沖高至近期高位2088。最新 CME FedWatch 顯示，5月減息機會率約27%，6月減息機會率回升至70%左右，暫時仍未算有明顯提前跡象，往上突破時間仍有待確認。本週二美國將有PMI非制造業指數，而週五將公佈就業數據，本週關鍵是留意金價能否突破上年12月高位2088。踏入3月，離美聯儲減息越來越近…繼道指、S&P、crypto市場，黃金應很快進入新一波牛市，高位沽空必須嚴守止損。
1小時圖 – 黃金在上週四突破消化三角(1)後觸發了一輪買盤，週五數據後讓上升加快，突破2月初高位2065(2)升至去年12月高位2088(3)。週未回來早段亞盤金價未有承接週五升勢繼續往上，短線2088(3)阻力繼續有效，暫時以2065-88(4)為操作區間。突破還須較大成交量時段，本週初突別留意週二的PMI非制造業指數。
日線圖－金價上週脫離下降通道(4)，中線趨勢由下跌轉為橫行，震蕩區間暫時由早前的1985-2065(5)擴闊至1985-2088(5.1)。結構上價格須突破2088，才會觸發新一輪買盤，開啟新一輪升浪。
短線阻力 3
2100
短線阻力 2
2095
短線阻力 1
2085-88
現價
2081
短線支持 1
2080
短線支持 2
2070
短線阻力 3
2065
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上周一连串的美国数据…早段周二、三公布的耐用品订单及第四季度GDP都不如预期，但金价维持有窄幅区间震荡。 直到周四公布核心PCE通胀数字，金价终于突破近一周的阻力区2035-40。 周五公布比预期更弱的制造业PMI，金价继续冲高至近期高位2088。 最新 CME FedWatch 显示，5月减息机会率约27%，6月减息机会率回升至70%左右，暂时仍未算有明显提前迹象，往上突破时间仍有待确认。 本周二美国将有PMI非制造业指数，而周五将公布就业数据，本周关键是留意金价能否突破上年12月高位2088。 踏入3月，离美联储减息越来越近…继道指、S&P、crypto市场，黄金应很快进入新一波牛市，高位沽空必须严守止损。
1小时图 – 黄金在上周四突破消化三角(1)后触发了一轮买盘，周五数据后让上升加快，突破2月初高位2065(2)升至去年12月高位2088(3)。 周未回来早段亚盘金价未有承接周五升势继续往上，短线2088(3)阻力继续有效，暂时以2065-88(4)为操作区间。 突破还须较大成交量时段，本周初突别留意周二的PMI非制造业指数。
日线图－金价上周脱离下降通道(4)，中线趋势由下跌转为横行，震荡区间暂时由早前的1985-2065(5)扩阔至1985-2088(5.1)。 结构上价格须突破2088，才会触发新一轮买盘，开启新一轮升浪。
短线阻力 3
2100
短线阻力 2
2095
短线阻力 1
2085-88
现价
2081
短线支持 1
2080
短线支持 2
2070
短线支持 3
2065
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