上周一价格回到2146出现反弹后，未有继续向下跌穿2143支持位，并出现横行。上周分析有提及留意2143支持有否反弹力量，因为这是较近的潜在反弹位，从5M图可看到周三美盘时段突破后出现回测横行顶，而这位置刚好又是近期 升段的0.618，短线买上是一个不错的入市位。从1H图看，周四美盘突破前高位2194后做了三角震荡后发力下破，力量明显强劲，而且在大型上升通道顶出现，短线向下看会有较有优势。 现价2165，在小型的下跌通道中，下周一开市后待价格回到通道顶或2185阻力时，留意有否反弹力量，若开市后直接跌穿通道底，下跌空间就变得不多，因为 下面有2143的支持未打穿，变相可留意有没有反弹向上的力量可做。K.LAM风险提示: 场外式黄金/白银交易涉及高度风险，未必适合所有投资者。 高度的杠杆可为阁下带来负面或正面的影响。 阁下在决定买卖场外式黄金/白银之前应审慎考虑自己的投资目标、交易经验以及风险接受程度。 可能出现的情况包括蒙受部分或全部初始投资额的损失，或在极端情况下（例如相关市场跳空）产生更多的损失。 因此，阁下不应将无法承受损失的资金用于投资。 投资应知悉买卖场外式黄金/白银有关的一切风险，如有需要，请向独立财务顾问寻求意见。 市场资料仅供参考，MAX Online 绝不保证分析内容的准确性。
Data on Monday showed that China’s industrial output rose 7.0% annually in January-February, accelerating from 6.8% in December, beating expectations, marking a good start to 2024 and providing temporary relief to policymakers. The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) was significantly higher than the 5.0% growth forecast in a Reuters analyst poll. Retail sales, an indicator of consumption, rose 5.5% in the first two months of the year, slowing from a 7.4% gain in December. Analysts had expected retail sales to rise 5.2%. Fixed asset investment rose 4.2% annually over the two months, compared with expectations for growth of 3.2%. The full-year growth in 2023 is 3.0%.
周一的数据显示，中国1-2月工业产出年增7.0%，较12月的6.8%有所加快，超出预期，标志着2024年的良好开局，并为政策制定者带来暂时的缓解 。 国家统计局（NBS）公布的数据显著高于路透社分析师调查显示的增长 5.0% 的预期。 作为消费指标的零售额今年前两个月增长了 5.5%，较 12 月的 7.4% 增幅放缓。 分析师此前预计零售额将成长 5.2%。 两个月内固定资产投资年增 4.2%，而预期为成长 3.2%。 2023年全年成长3.0%。
週一的數據顯示，中國1-2月工業產出年增7.0%，較12月的6.8%有所加快，超出預期，標誌著2024年的良好開局，並為政策制定者帶來暫時的緩解。 國家統計局（NBS）公佈的數據顯著高於路透社分析師調查顯示的增長 5.0% 的預期。作為消費指標的零售額今年前兩個月增長了 5.5%，較 12 月的 7.4% 增幅放緩。 分析師此前預計零售額將成長 5.2%。兩個月內固定資產投資年增 4.2%，而預期為成長 3.2%。 2023年全年成長3.0%。
After reaching a new high of 2195, the gold price stayed sideways between 2155-85(1) last week. This week’s only major event will be the Fed meeting. Following the slight rebound in US core CPI data last week, expect the post-Fed meeting announcement to lean towards a hawkish stance, which could have a bearish impact on the gold price.
1-hr Chart – The gold price is still bounded within the range of 2155-85 (3), and it is currently trading under the S-T resistance line (2) that has been in place for the past few trading days. If the critical support level of 2147-2150(1) is breached, the next downside target can be set around 2120(4).
Daily Chart – Structurally, there hasn’t been any significant change on the daily chart, with the upward channel(5) remaining valid. The gold price is still standing above the previous high of 2147(7). If the buying support from the previous high of 2147(7) is cleared, a major correction toward 2120 should occur and pay attention to the next support at the 20-day MA(6).
S-T ressitance 3
2168
S-T ressitance 2
2160
S-T ressitance 1
2155
Market price
2152
S-T support 1
2147-50
S-T support 2
2140
S-T support 3
2130
P. To
Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
黄金自创出新高2195后，上周价格整体在高位横行震荡。 本周唯一重点香港时间周四凌晨的美联储议息会议，经过上周稍微反弹美国核心CPI数据，相信本周会后声明亦会偏鹰，利淡金价。
1小时图 – 金价现时仍在2155-85(3)区间之内，过去一周的短线下降阻力线(2)继续有效，美联储议息会议前可继续参考。 若失守2147-50(1)关键支持，下方目标可定在2120(4)。
日线图 – 结构上未有明显变化，上升通道(5)继续有效。 现时仍在前高位2147(7)之上，若往下调整留意下方20天移动均线(6)在2103附近。
短线阻力 3
2168
短线阻力 2
2160
短线阻力 1
2155
现价
2152
短线支持 1
2147-50
短线支持 2
2140
短线支持 3
2130
P. To
风险提示: 场外式黄金/白银交易涉及高度风险，未必适合所有投资者。高度的杠杆可为阁下带来负面或正面的影响。阁下在决定买卖场外式黄金/白银之前应审慎考虑自己的投资目标、交易经验以及风险接受程度。可能出现的情况包括蒙受部分或全部初始投资额的损失，或在极端情况下（例如相关市场跳空）产生更多的损失。因此，阁下不应将无法承受损失的资金用于投资。投资应知悉买卖场外式黄金/白银有关的一切风险，如有需要，请向独立财务顾问寻求意见。市场资料仅供参考，我们绝不保证分析内容的准确性。
黃金自創出新高2195後，上週價格整體在高位橫行震蕩。本週唯一重點香港時間週四凌晨的美聯儲議息會議，經過上週稍微反彈美國核心CPI數據，相信本週會後聲明亦會偏鹰，利淡金價。
1小時圖 – 金價現時仍在2155-85(3)區間之內，過去一週的短線下降阻力線(2)繼續有效，美聯儲議息會議前可繼續參考。若失守2147-50(1)關鍵支持，下方目標可定在2120(4)。
日線圖 – 結構上未有明顯變化，上升通道(5)繼續有效。現時仍在前高位2147(7)之上，若往下調整留意下方20天移動均線(6)在2103附近。
短線阻力 3
2168
短線阻力 2
2160
短線阻力 1
2155
現價
2152
短線支持 1
2147-50
短線支持 2
2140
短線阻力 3
2130
P. To
上周初黄金价格去到2195后反弹并跌穿上升结构，从4H图看有机会是到了通道顶，所以可能会出现短线的回调。 2184可能会是不错的入市位，这是下跌段的黄金分割0.618，而且在5M图也看到是互换位，不过由于从大图看上升动能强劲，而且周二美盘数据公报前出现小横行，止赚位不要看太远，2164的前双顶位会是一个 不错的减仓或食糊的位置。现时大方向一定系向上看会较有利，前日图针顶2143是较近的支持位，下周初可留意细图有没有力量反弹，若跌穿这位置，下关可能到2087，这是日 图最近升段的0.618。 另外从1H图看，出了下跌趋势线，有机会型成下跌通道，下周也可留意顶底的位置。K.LAM风险提示: 场外式黄金/白银交易涉及高度风险，未必适合所有投资者。 高度的杠杆可为阁下带来负面或正面的影响。 阁下在决定买卖场外式黄金/白银之前应审慎考虑自己的投资目标、交易经验以及风险接受程度。 可能出现的情况包括蒙受部分或全部初始投资额的损失，或在极端情况下（例如相关市场跳空）产生更多的损失。 因此，阁下不应将无法承受损失的资金用于投资。 投资应知悉买卖场外式黄金/白银有关的一切风险，如有需要，请向独立财务顾问寻求意见。 市场资料仅供参考，MAX Online 绝不保证分析内容的准确性。
由于联准会降息时间存在不确定性，预计中国央行周五展期到期中期贷款时将维持关键政策利率不变。 市场观察家普遍认为，尽管普遍认为陷入困境的经济需要更多刺激措施，但北京将继续优先考虑人民币的稳定。 在联准会或其他主要央行采取行动之前降息将扩大收益率差异，可能会给人民币带来更大压力。 尽管央行持续努力支撑人民币，但今年迄今人民币兑美元已贬值1.3%。 星展银行(DBS)经济学家塞缪尔·谢(Samuel Tse)表示：“我们维持我们的观点，即中国人民银行不会领先于联准会降息。”“毕竟，当局的目的是稳定汇率 ，以防止进一步的资本外流。稳定经济数据也为推迟降息决定留下了空间。”人们普遍预计，如果通膨降温，美联储今年将降息，根据LSEG 的利率概率应用程序，市场目前认为6 月份降息 的可能性为65%，尽管这一可能性较本周早些时候的71% 有所下降。 7 月降息的可能性约为 83%。 交易员和分析师表示，联准会降息或一系列降息将为中国央行降低借贷成本以支撑经济成长提供回旋余地。 北京一位债券基金经理表示，“中国的政策利率调整可能要等到美国降息时机明确之后”，他预计央行将全面展期到期的MLF贷款，甚至向市场提供一些新资金。 周五的金融系统。 然而，中国人民银行行长潘功胜上周表示，该行将保持人民币基本稳定，并向市场发出鸽派讯息，称中国「拥有丰富的货币政策工具」。 巴克莱经济学家在一份报告中表示：“我们预计中国将推出更多宽松货币政策以支持经济成长。”「我们预计第二季和第三季政策利率均下调10 个基点，并预计第 二季银行存款准备率(RRR) 下调25-50 个基点，第三季再下调25-50 个基点」。
Amid uncertainty over the timing of the Fed’s rate cut, the People’s Bank of China is expected to keep key policy rates unchanged when it rolls over maturing medium-term loans on Friday.Market observers generally believe that Beijing will continue to prioritize the stability of the yuan, despite widespread agreement that the struggling economy needs more stimulus.Cutting interest rates before the Fed or other major central banks take action would widen yield differentials and could put more pressure on the yuan. Despite the central bank’s continued efforts to support the yuan, the yuan has depreciated 1.3% against the dollar so far this year.”We maintain our view that the People’s Bank of China will not cut rates ahead of the Fed,” said DBS economist Samuel Tse.”After all, the authorities aim to stabilize the exchange rate to prevent further capital outflows. Stabilizing economic data also leaves room for delaying a decision to cut interest rates.”The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates this year if inflation cools, with markets currently pricing in a 65% chance of a rate cut in June, according to LSEG’s Rate Probability app, although that’s down from 71% earlier this week. dropped. The chance of a rate cut in July is about 83%.Traders and analysts said a rate cut or series of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve would give China’s central bank room to maneuver to lower borrowing costs to support economic growth.A bond fund manager in Beijing said that “China’s policy interest rate adjustment may have to wait until the timing of the U.S. interest rate cut is clear.” He expects the central bank to fully roll over maturing MLF loans and even provide some new funds to the market. Financial system on Friday.However, Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, said last week that the bank would keep the yuan basically stable and sent a dovish message to the market, saying China “has abundant monetary policy tools.””We expect China to introduce more loose monetary policies to support economic growth,” Barclays economists said in a note.”We expect policy rates to be cut by 10 basis points in both the second quarter and third quarter, and expect the bank reserve ratio (RRR) to be cut by 25-50 basis points in the second quarter and by another 25-50 basis points in the third quarter.”