The gold price was under the influence of two major events last week, the FOMC meeting and the non-farm payrolls report, which resulted in significant daily fluctuations; however, the closing price for the entire week resumed its position below 2040, without any clear structural breakthrough. The post-FOMC statement kept the probability of a rate cut in March to a mere 15% (according to CME’s FedWatch Tools). Adding the non-farm payroll data on Fri., once again exceeded the market’s expectation for the second consecutive month and pulled the gold price back below the 2040 range before the week ended.
Although the range trading strategy we’ve been suggesting in recent weeks aligned perfectly with the overall trend in the gold market, and the resistance and support levels performed as expected, last week’s market involved too many uncertain factors. I would say the trading difficulty reached the “Black Diamond” level, with rapid and wide swings in the price movements.
1-Hour Chart – The difficulty of trading should ease down this week as no major economic data is being released, and with the approaching of the CNY holiday. The gold market is expected to resume the range-bound pattern & vibe we saw two weeks ago. After the gold price drops below 2040, we can continue to take advantage of the 2020-40(2)range. The S-T resistance zone remains in 2035-2040(1), nothing new ????????????. However, I believe that in the next 48 hours, we should see the price reaching the bottom of the S-T near 2020.
Daily Chart – The range structure we’ve been highlighting in the past few weeks, between 2002-65(3), is still valid. At the moment, the price is trapped within a consolidating triangle pattern(5). For the price to return to the bottom of the range, it needs to break out of the triangle formation. In S-T, keep an eye on the 20-day moving average as a support level.
S-T ressitance 3
2048
S-T ressitance 2
2040
S-T ressitance 1
2030
Market price
2034
S-T support 1
2030
S-T support 2
2027
S-T support 3
2020
P. To
Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.
國際金價上週被2大消息(FOMC+非農)帶動，單日波幅明顯擴大，但全週收盤最終都回到2040以下，未有任何明顯結構上突破。FOMC會後聲明，聯儲局3月減息機率跌至現時15%(CME FedWatch Tools)，令到減息的預期再次推後; 而連續2個月公佈都比預期好的非農數據在週未收盤前將金價拉回2040以下區間。過去幾週一直建議的區間操作雖然完全符合金市整體走勢，阻力支持價亦合符預期，但上週太多市場不確定消息，操作難度可算是區間操作的Black Diamond級數，走勢急而闊。
1小時圖 – 本週沒有重要經濟數據公佈 + 接近中國新年，相信本週的金市走勢會回到2週前的區間動態模式。金價回到2040以下之後，現時可以繼續把握2020-40(2)區間，短線阻力仍在2035-40(1)，雖然豪無新意????????????，但相信未來48小時內應該能到達短線區間底部。
日線圖 – 過去幾週一直強調的2002-65(3)區間結構仍然有效，但現時價格被困在消化性三角(5)之中，要脫離三角形態後價格才能回到區間底部。短線支持繼續留意20天移動均線(4)。
短線阻力 3
2055
短線阻力 2
2048-50
短線阻力 1
2040
現價
2034
短線支持 1
2030
短線支持 2
2027
短線阻力 3
2020
P. To
風險提示: 場外式黃金/白銀交易涉及高度風險，未必適合所有投資者。高度的槓桿可為閣下帶來負面或正面的影響。閣下在決定買賣場外式黃金/白銀之前應審慎考慮自己的投資目標、交易經驗以及風險接受程度。可能出現的情況包括蒙受部分或全部初始投資額的損失，或在極端情況下（例如相關市場跳空）產生更多的損失。因此，閣下不應將無法承受損失的資金用於投資。投資應知悉買賣場外式黃金/白銀有關的一切風險，如有需要，請向獨立財務顧問尋求意見。市場資料僅供參考，我們絕不保証分析內容的準確性。
場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.
據一項調查顯示，在華美國企業對雙邊關係及其盈利潛力比一年前更加樂觀，但大多數企業目前仍會限制在華新投資。即便如此，總部位於北京的中國美國商會（AmCham）對其會員進行的調查顯示，中美關係仍然是他們的主要擔憂，其次是監管不一致、勞動力成本增加和資料安全擔憂。 中國美國商會主席肖恩·斯坦表示：“儘管近年來雙邊貿易有所擴大，但美國和中國之間的不信任仍然很高，關係緊張。”2023 年10 月，美國總統拜登和中國國家主席習近平在舊金山會晤之前，收集了343 名美國商會會員對這項調查的回复，這次會議被視為世界兩大經濟體之間關係正常化的重要一步。超過40%的受訪者表示，他們沒有計劃在2024年增加對中國的投資，另有37%的受訪者預計只會小幅增加。 中國英國商會去年12月發布的一項類似的情緒調查發現，英國企業也延後了在中國的新投資。美國商會調查的公司中有三分之一表示，與中國同行相比，他們受到了不公平的對待。 隨著美國和中國持續爭奪高科技霸主地位，科技業的股票跌幅最大。受訪的美國商會會員中有大約一半現在認為中國是全球三大優先事項，這一數字比去年的歷史最低點略有上升。 更多受訪者（39%）表示，與一年前相比，中國對美國企業的歡迎程度有所下降，而31% 的受訪者表示，中國對美國企業的歡迎程度有所提高，這反映出未來一年美國企業在中國面臨的複雜商業和地緣政治環境。
据一项调查显示，在华美国企业对双边关系及其盈利潜力比一年前更加乐观，但大多数企业目前仍会限制在华 新投资。 即便如此，总部位于北京的中国美国商会（AmCham）对其会员进行的调查显示，中美关系仍然是他们的主要担忧，其次是监管不一致、劳动力成本增加和资料安全担忧。 中国美国商会主席肖恩·斯坦表示：“尽管近年来双边贸易有所扩大，但美国和中国之间的不信任仍然很高 ，关系紧张。”2023 年10 月，美国总统拜登和中国国家主席习近平在旧金山会晤之前，收集了343 名美国商会会员对这项调查的回复，这次会议被视为世界两大经济体之间 关系正常化的重要一步。 超过40%的受访者表示，他们没有计划在2024年增加对中国的投资，另有37%的受访者预计只会小幅增加。 中国英国商会去年12月发布的一项类似的情绪调查发现，英国企业也延后了在中国的新投资。 美国商会调查的公司中有三分之一表示，与中国同行相比，他们受到了不公平的对待。 随着美国和中国持续争夺高科技霸主地位，科技业的股票跌幅最大。 受访的美国商会会员中有大约一半现在认为中国是全球三大优先事项，这一数字比去年的历史最低点略有上升。 更多受访者（39%）表示，与一年前相比，中国对美国企业的欢迎程度有所下降，而31% 的受访 者表示，中国对美国企业的欢迎程度有所提高，这反映出未来一年美国企业在中国面临的复杂商业和地缘政治环境。
在股市持續暴跌之際，中國國務院副總理何立峰週一呼籲加大對上市公司的支持力度，以幫助穩定資本市場。在近期股市大幅下跌後，中國決策者已採取措施支持股市。 「上市公司是經濟高品質發展的重要微觀基礎。」副總理在全國促進上市公司發展電視電話會議上表示。 推動上市公司高品質發展，有助於實現高水準技術自主，加快現代產業體系建設，增強市場信心。李克強表示，相關部門要加強對優質上市公司的支持力度，提振信心、穩定資本市場。會議也強調，各地要抓住機遇，建立並有效率地運作城市房地產融資協調機制。
在股市持续暴跌之际，中国国务院副总理何立峰周一呼吁加大对上市公司的支持力度，以帮助稳定资本市场。 在近期股市大幅下跌后，中国决策者已采取措施支持股市。 「上市公司是经济高品质发展的重要微观基础。」副总理在全国促进上市公司发展电视电话会议上表示。 推动上市公司高品质发展，有助于实现高水准技术自主，加快现代产业体系建设，增强市场信心。 李克强表示，相关部门要加强对优质上市公司的支持力度，提振信心、稳定资本市场。 会议也强调，各地要抓住机遇，建立并有效率地运作城市房地产融资协调机制。
The gold price was moving within a narrow range last week. The price was bounded by 2020-40 until Wednesday’s US better-than-expected GDP data; it cleared the 2020(2) support and dropped to as low as 2010.
There are two major economic events to pay attention to this week. First, we have the Fed. Meeting on Wednesday. There is a 95% chance that the interest rates will remain unchanged (according to CME’s FedWatch)in this week’s meeting. And the statement they release after the meeting…I’m expecting the Fed. is unlikely to make any sudden moves in the next few months, considering the Fed’s habits of slow acting at the beginning of this rate hike cycle and most of the economic figures haven’t shown any dramatic improvement recently. Unless Powell makes some unexpected comments, the chances of a rate cut in March… or even in May, might stay around 50-60% with no major changes afterward. On the other hand, the US employment data at the end of this week is also expected to be in line with expectations, with possibly downward pressure on the price of gold. The price of gold hasn’t shown any signs of a breakout, so it’s still a good idea to continue trading within the established range.
1-Hour Chart – The price of gold dropped below the 2020(2) and rebounded from the lows near 2010. It has failed to reach the previous low point of 2001(5), indicating that buying positions below 2010 have become stronger. Today, in the Asian trading session, the spot gold price has already returned above the 2020 mark. Over the past 48 hours, an S-T upward channel(4) has formed, suggesting the possibility of revisiting the resistance zone of 2035-40(1), likely before the Fed. Meeting.
Daily Chart – Market uncertainty is expected to increase mid to late this week, so it’s crucial to be cautious about potential breakouts in technical patterns. The resistance zone around 2030-40(9) is still cursing the market. In the next two trading days, watch the 20-day MA(8). The upward support line(6) is still holding, and if a breakout occurs, the bottom of the range near 2001 could become the next support level.
S-T ressitance 3
2040
S-T ressitance 2
2035
S-T ressitance 1
2030
Market price
2025
S-T support 1
2020-2
S-T support 2
2015
S-T support 3
2010
P. To
Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.
黄金上周整体在窄幅区间内震荡，早段周一至周三都在2020-40内上落 ~ 合付我们预期。直到周三美国公布第四季GDP数据优于预期，金价终于失守2020(2)，最低回到2010。本周2大重磅消息，首先是周三交易日(周四凌晨)的美联储议息会议，现时超过95%预期利息维持不变(by CME’s FedWatch)，关键是公布的会后声明…以今届联储局加息早期拖拖拉拉的作风，相信灭息情况亦不会大刀阔斧。除非Powell发表出付意料的言论，否则三月…甚至五月减息的机会可能只会继续维持5-6成；而本周尾段的美国就业数据，相信相比预期亦不会有太大落差，初步预期可能会为带金价来下行压力。现时金价仍未有条件作出突破，可继续尽情地把握区间操作模式。
1小时图 – 上周三跌穿2020(2)，价格从2010附近低位开始反弹，未有触及上次2001低位(5)，暂时反映2010下的买盘(多单)明显转强。今日亚盘开市现货黄金价格现回到2020之上。在过去48小时已形成短线的上升通道(4)，美议息会议前应有机会再次上周阻力区2035-40(1)。
日线图 – 本周中/后期市场的不确定性会增加，必须小心技术形态上的突破。现时上方阻力区在2030-40(9)，而未来2个交易日可继续把握20天移动均线(8); 上升支持线(6)继续有效，若出现突破，区间(7)底部2001会时下一支持。
短线阻力 3
2040
短线阻力 2
2035
短线阻力 1
2030
现价
2025
短线支持 1
2020-2
短线支持 2
2015
短线支持 3
2010
P. To
风险提示: 场外式黄金/白银交易涉及高度风险，未必适合所有投资者。高度的杠杆可为阁下带来负面或正面的影响。阁下在决定买卖场外式黄金/白银之前应审慎考虑自己的投资目标、交易经验以及风险接受程度。可能出现的情况包括蒙受部分或全部初始投资额的损失，或在极端情况下（例如相关市场跳空）产生更多的损失。因此，阁下不应将无法承受损失的资金用于投资。投资应知悉买卖场外式黄金/白银有关的一切风险，如有需要，请向独立财务顾问寻求意见。市场资料仅供参考，我们绝不保证分析内容的准确性。
黃金上週整體在窄幅區間內震蕩，早段週一至週三都在2020-40內上落 ~ 合付我們預期。直到週三美國公佈第四季GDP數據優於預期，金價終於失守2020(2)，最低回到2010。本週2大重磅消息，首先是週三交易日(週四凌晨)的美聯儲議息會議，現時超過95%預期利息維持不變(by CME’s FedWatch)，關鍵是公佈的會後聲明…以今屆聯儲局加息早期拖拖拉拉的作風，相信滅息情況亦不會大刀闊斧。除非Powell發表出付意料的言論，否則三月…甚至五月減息的機會可能只會繼續維持5-6成；而本週尾段的美國就業數據，相信相比預期亦不會有太大落差，初步預期可能會為金價帶來下行壓力。現時金價仍未有條件作出突破，可繼續盡情地把握區間操作模式。
1小時圖 – 上週三跌穿2020(2)，價格從2010附近低位開始反彈，未有觸及上次2001低位(5)，暫時反映2010下的買盤(多單)明顯轉強。今日亞盤開市現貨黃金價格現回到2020之上。在過去48小時已形成短線的上升通道(4)，美議息會議前應有機會再次上週阻力區2035-40(1)。
日線圖 – 本週中/後期市場的不確定性會增加，必須小心技術形態上的突破。現時上方阻力區在2030-40(9)，而未來2個交易日可繼續把握20天移動均線(8); 上升支持線(6)繼續有效，若出現突破，區間(7)底部2001會時下一支持。
短線阻力 3
2040
短線阻力 2
2035
短線阻力 1
2030
現價
2024
短線支持 1
2020-2
短線支持 2
2015
短線阻力 3
2010
P. To
風險提示: 場外式黃金/白銀交易涉及高度風險，未必適合所有投資者。高度的槓桿可為閣下帶來負面或正面的影響。閣下在決定買賣場外式黃金/白銀之前應審慎考慮自己的投資目標、交易經驗以及風險接受程度。可能出現的情況包括蒙受部分或全部初始投資額的損失，或在極端情況下（例如相關市場跳空）產生更多的損失。因此，閣下不應將無法承受損失的資金用於投資。投資應知悉買賣場外式黃金/白銀有關的一切風險，如有需要，請向獨立財務顧問尋求意見。市場資料僅供參考，我們絕不保証分析內容的準確性。
場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.
上週一美盤時段價格回到升段的0.618(2017)附近後，出現力量反彈並升穿下跌結構，上週分析有提過短線可留意這位置有沒有力量反彈，之後價格回調到0.618(2020)亦是前雙底的支持位，短線可在這試試能否升返去前頂，最後去到2037停下並震盪。 直到週三美盤時段再出現明顯的下跌力量，價格再次回到2008的日圖級別的支持位上，正常在支持位上都是傾向等出上升力量後向上買，但從4H圖看仍是陰燭的力量較強，而且不斷的出LOWER HIGH和仍在下跌通道內，下週可能會再下試前底2000這個大位。 暫時中長線仍未有明確方向，因為在支持上不看跌，看升又未見有明顯力量，可能要等升穿通道或跌穿2000才作考慮。相反短線操作會較為靈活和有優勢，可留意2025/2030/2041的阻力和2008/2000/1995的支持上，在細圖有否出反彈力量破結構。風險提示: 場外式黃金/白銀交易涉及高度風險，未必適合所有投資者。高度的槓桿可為閣下帶來負面或正面的影響。閣下在決定買賣場外式黃金/白銀之前應審慎考慮自己的投資目標、交易經驗以及風險接受程度。可能出現的情況包括蒙受部分或全部初始投資額的損失，或在極端情況下（例如相關市場跳空）產生更多的損失。因此，閣下不應將無法承受損失的資金用於投資。投資應知悉買賣場外式黃金/白銀有關的一切風險，如有需要，請向獨立財務顧問尋求意見。市場資料僅供參考，MAX Online 絕不保証分析內容的準確性。