上週佈署價格若回到1896-1900後出現發力反彈，價格便大機會延續跌勢，找尋阻力位做淡會有利。結果週四美盤升穿1886的雙頂去到1890後，馬上出了大陰燭，吞沒了整支陽燭(1H 圖)。雖然比預期早了發力反彈，但出現這個轉勢訊號，其實已經可以確認回調完結，繼續做淡。5M 圖可看見大陽燭升穿1886後，因為阻力變支持，拉回1886並出現短暫停頓，之後再大陰燭跌穿。進取的交易者應該這裏便進場了，但若想等方向更明確的話，可等價格跌穿1880打破結構。上方入不到巿的話，到了週五歐盤也有另一機會，價格回到上升通道底加前底的互換附近，出現了一段反彈力量，在美盤時段回調到該跌段0.618加前底阻力時，也是一個好時機。(15M 圖)週五反彈後出現收窄三角沒有明確方向，直到昨天星期二晚CPI公佈後，價格出現較的震盪，在1843-1970出現了幾次急升急跌。從圖表上亦可看做上破下跌通道後又馬上拉回，方向仍是睇跌為主，但由於早前震盪較大，TP不宜過遠和以保護倉位為主。現價剛穿了1850，可留意1853,1850有沒有機會，若價格未打穿通道就發力反彈，可能仍會在道震盪。近期阻力18531860-186118651870近期支持18501840-1843K.Lam
風險提示: 場外式黃金/白銀交易涉及高度風險，未必適合所有投資者。高度的槓桿可為閣下帶來負面或正面的影響。閣下在決定買賣場外式黃金/白銀之前應審慎考慮自己的投資目標、交易經驗以及風險接受程度。可能出現的情況包括蒙受部分或全部初始投資額的損失，或在極端情況下（例如相關市場跳空）產生更多的損失。因此，閣下不應將無法承受損失的資金用於投資。投資應知悉買賣場外式黃金/白銀有關的一切風險，如有需要，請向獨立財務顧問尋求意見。市場資料僅供參考，Z.com Bullion 絕不保証分析內容的準確性。
黃金基本面前景:
美聯儲官員的較鷹派講話，導致上週黃金和美股都走低。惟俄烏戰火可能重燃，導致金價始終未有大跌，及得以站穩。
本週最重要的數據是週二晚9時半公佈的CPI，市場預期調低至6.2%。其實近數次的CPI走低，都受到同比的基數效應所影響(即去年同期的CPI都相對較高)，調低市場預期，意味著公佈的數據好於預期的機會減低。因此，若出現差於預期的CPI，市場會認為美聯儲延長加息週期的可能性較高，即會導致金價受創。
另一方面，俄烏戰火可能重燃導致金價的不確定性增加。但傾向利好金價。
因此，本週的金價，週一、二(CPI數據前)相對波動較少。
在CPI公佈後，宜低位吸納。
CFTC倉位分析:
本週CFTC數據遇上駭客襲擊仍未更新。已經連續第二週仍未修復。
筆者感覺是次駭客襲擊時間上的呼合，可能和俄烏戰火可能重燃有關，因此，估計黃金和原油的好倉會增加。
CME FEBWATCH:
根據芝加哥商品交易所集團(CME Group)的美聯儲觀察工具，市場預期3月22日政策會議後加息25個基點的概率高達90.8%，加息50個基點的概率有9.2%。
本週關鍵價位:
1833.5-1856.8-1864.5-1886-1900-1906
週一:
21: 00 美聯儲理事鮑曼在銀行業大會上發表講話。
週二:
21:30 美國1月未季調CPI年率
週三:
00:00 2023年FOMC票委、達拉斯聯儲主席洛根出席一場活動的問答環節。
00:30 2023年FOMC票委、費城聯儲主席哈克就美國經濟前景發表講話
03:05 FOMC永久票委、紐約聯儲主席威廉姆斯在紐約銀行家聯盟的活動上發表講話。
21:30 美國1月零售銷售月率
週四:
21:30 美國至2月11日當周初請失業金人數
21:30 美國1月PPI年率
週五:
沒有關鍵數據
上週初由上升通道演變做橫行，加上開始出現LOWER HIGH ，動能明顯衰減。到週二歐盤時向下跌穿橫行和上升通道底部，但美盤時段到了1900後突然發力抽上，去返上升通道頂再發力反彈向下。1900會有這反彈力量，可能這位置是其中升段的0.618, 明顯的支持阻力互換位和價格是齊頭數的關係。反彈後亦變了一個闊版的上升通道，可能因為這幾個條件，所以有不少交易者在這位置佈署買升，做了一波上升的力量。
到了週四美盤時段，
大陰燭跌穿前底打破結構，回測了前橫行底再發力向下，打破了很多重要
支持位。現在方向已變得明確，尋找阻力位做淡倉會較為有利。現價1875，仍在小型上升通道中震盪，本週佈署可留意1896-1900這區域的阻力，這是最近跌段的0.618和前底阻力位，另外是1910的下跌發力位加上升通道底。假如這兩個位出現發力反彈下跌，有機會延續跌勢。
近期阻力
1886
1896
1900
近期支持
1862
1850K.Lam
風險提示: 場外式黃金/白銀交易涉及高度風險，未必適合所有投資者。高度的槓桿可為閣下帶來負面或正面的影響。閣下在決定買賣場外式黃金/白銀之前應審慎考慮自己的投資目標、交易經驗以及風險接受程度。可能出現的情況包括蒙受部分或全部初始投資額的損失，或在極端情況下（例如相關市場跳空）產生更多的損失。因此，閣下不應將無法承受損失的資金用於投資。投資應知悉買賣場外式黃金/白銀有關的一切風險，如有需要，請向獨立財務顧問尋求意見。市場資料僅供參考，Z.com Bullion 絕不保証分析內容的準確性。
黃金的價格在森林體系崩潰後表面上已經和美元沒有關系，但是當美元作為國際上最常用的結算貨幣時，國際上絕大部分貿易包括黃金都是使用美元結算的，所以黃金在一定程度上依然受到美元匯率變動的影響，當美元匯率上升時黃金價格有一定機率會受壓下跌；而美元的匯率受到其國內的經濟狀況和國際貨幣市場的影響。美國國內經濟狀況可以透過其公佈的主要經濟指標來了解，公佈的主要經濟指標包括：國民生產及收入，工產生產及訂單，就業與失業等等。各種數據的重要性取決於當前市場的焦點。市場並不會只關注一樣數據，在不同的時間市場的焦點也不相同。在以往的匯率市場一些貿易數據比較受到關注，如凈資本流入、國內生產總值等。但現時部份數據的影響力已經大減，因為美元憑藉自己作為國際結算貨幣來瘋狂印錢，使投資者漸漸發現其實有很多的經濟數據並不會真正影響到市場。屢創新高的貿易赤字和凈資本流入也未能提供炒作的餘地，因為大家都不意外會出來這樣的結果。現在市場上依然有參考價值的指標是與通貨膨脹有關的數據如消費者物價指數、生產者物價指數等。美國非農數據是除了通脹外可以對黃金價格造成最大影響的數據；美國非農業人口就業數據是就業報告的一種，可以反映出當時製造行業和服務行業的發展及其增長。非農與黃金之間存在一定程度的負相關關係，因為數據能夠反映出美國的勞動力增長規模，所以美聯儲在實施貨幣政策時會把這數據作為參考因素之一。此報告會在每月的第一個星期五由勞工部公佈，一般用來當作當月經濟指標的基調。美國非農數據公佈前，市場會在計算後得出下次公佈數據的預期值和有可能的前值修正。在新公佈數據的實際數值是否符合預期以及和前值對比，會對黃金及美元造成不同的影響。以下為各個經濟情景：
情景
美元指數
黃金價格
Gold traded in a tight range yesterday. The overall daily movement was pretty much like the day before – pulling back before the day’s end.; the price climbed to the day-high 1660 in the early session and retraced back to the opening price of 1650 before the day’s end.
The S-T trend is still controlled by the S-T downtrend resistance (1.1) that was mentioned yesterday. Overall, the market is bearish. However, the short-selling before 1650 is still relatively weak. Due to the lack of momentum, expect the price to remain within 1640-65(2) until it escapes.
The pullbacks before the day’s end on the second consecutive day have created another bearish signal on the daily chart. Wait for the signal; a new round of selling should only begin if the price close below 1650 on the daily chart; before that, the price should continue to wander around 1650.
S-T Resistances:
1665
1660
1655
Market price: 1651
S-T Supports:
1650
1645
1640
Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.
Gold had pullback before the day’s end yesterday. The market opened at 1642 back from the weekend. The price has kept moving higher in the Asian and European sessions. It hit the day-high 1668 at the US session opening, then the price retraced. The day ended at 1650, up by USD8 after all.
The downtrend on the 1-hour chart slowed down yesterday after the price jumped above the trendline(1), shifting the S-T downtrend from (1) to (1.1). Before the next break, expect the price to settle in between 1640-65(2) for now.
Overall the trend is still bearish, and a new bearish signal(3) has appeared after the pullback from 1668 yesterday. The resistance at 1665(4) & the 20 days MA(5) are blocking all the climb for now. Once the price clears the support at 1640, gold should be able to consolidate further.
S-T Resistances:
1670
1665
1660
Market price: 1659
S-T Supports:
1655
1650
1645
Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.
Gold touched a new 1-week low yesterday. The day began at 1667, and the price was traded between 1660-71 throughout the Asian & European sessions. A rapid jump to the day-high 1684 occurred at the US session, but the price got pull-back led to the day ending at 1665, down by USD 2.
The S-T selling trend originated from 1710 has ended yesterday after the price climbed above the downward trendline(1). Waiting for the US Fed. Minutes later today, the price is settling in a tight range between 1660-80(2).
Gold’s pull-back from 1684 yesterday has created a selling signal(4) on the daily chart. The trend on the daily chart remains bearish, and the resistance at the 20-day MA(5) remains in effect.
S-T Resistances:
1680
1676
1670
Market price: 1667
S-T Supports:
1665
1660
1655
Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.
Carried the selling momentum from last Fri., gold sank further yesterday. The market opened at 1694 back from the weekend. After the price briefly touched 1700 during the opening hours, the bearish run began. It cleared the 1680 support in the US opening session and landed at the day-low near 1665. The day ended at 1668, down by USD 25.
Selling resumed after the US employment figures last Fri. After it cleared the 1700 support, an S-T resistance line(2) formed in the past 24 hours; the downward trend should continue before the price breakout from this trendline(2). The next critical support is near 1650(4) for now.
A bottoming signal has yet to appear in the daily chart, where the 20-day MA become the upside resistance again. Gold should touch a new weekly low today. Within the next 24 hours, let’s see if the price can resuming its position within its previous 1653-88(5) trading zone.
S-T Resistances:
1676
1670
1665
Market price: 1663
S-T Supports:
1660
1655
1650
Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.
Gold renewed the 3-weeks high yesterday. Carried the buying momentum from the day before, a new round of buying was triggered after the price cleared the resistance at 1700 early in the Asian session. The bullish trend continued until it touched the day-high near 1729 late in the US session. The day ended at 1725, up by USD 25.
After all the interventions and the news from the BOJ & the BOE, gold is trading above the critical support of 1680(1) again. The S-T trendline(2) can be used as a resistance reference for the current bullish trend. While the market is now shifting its focus to the US employment figures this Friday unless the price can clear the resistance at 1730, expect the price to remain in 1700-30 in the next 48 hours.
Since gold escaped the downtrend channel (4) and broke out from the 20 days MA, a bullish trend has begun on the daily chart. Unless the price can clear the 50-day MA and trigger a new round of buying, 1700-30 should be the range for today.
S-T Resistances:
1730
1725
1720
Market price: 1718
S-T Supports:
1710
1705
1700
Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.
場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.