承接前周五非农数据公布后的下跌趋势，上周初金价跌至全周最低2364，随后开始反弹。上周没有重要经济数据，未能为金价带来突破，而近期紧张的中东局势为金价带来了一定买盘支持，上周全周收盘在2430，一周轻微下跌12美元。
本周市场重点是周三美国公布的通胀数据，预期若进一步放缓，金价将再试高位。但留意根据 CME FedWatch 跟踪的利率期货显示，前周五非农过后，9月份减息半厘的机会率飙升至75%，而当时金价未能突破前高2480。还看本周就算通胀数据大幅放缓令9月减息半厘的预期升至100%，相信亦难为金市带来太大冲激，让金价突破很远，反而会为买盘带来高位平仓的机会。跟据芝商所期金未平仓合约(open interest)数金价在过去2周持续回落，反映资金继续有流出金市迹象。
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1小时图(上图) > 承接上周尾段的上升，暂时金价继续以上升趋势为主，短线目标2450，而本周操作区间可定在2380-2450(1)有待突破。中线留意消化性三角(2)。
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日线图(上图) > 金价仍然行走在上升通道(4)当中，但留意2450(3)以上沽盘仍然较重。本周早段主要以消化三角(5)操作，突破后价格才会出现明显变化。
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承接前週五非農數據公佈後的下跌趨勢，上週初金價跌至全週最低2364，隨後開始反彈。上週沒有重要經濟數據，未能為金價帶來突破，而近期緊張的中東局勢為金價帶來了一定買盤支持，上週全週收盤在2430，一週輕微下跌12美元。
本週市場重點是週三美國公佈的通脹數據，預期若進一步放緩，金價將再試高位。但留意根據 CME FedWatch 跟蹤的利率期貨顯示，前週五非農過後，9月份減息半厘的機會率飇升至75%，而當時金價未能突破前高2480。還看本週就算通脹數據大幅放緩令9月減息半厘的預期升至100%，相信亦難為金市帶來太大沖激，讓金價突破很遠，反而會為買盤帶來高位平倉的機會。跟據芝商所期金未平倉合約(open interest)數金價在過去2週持續回落，反映資金繼續有流出金市跡象。
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1小時圖(上圖) > 承接上週尾段的上升，暫時金價繼續以上升趨勢為主，短線目標2450，而本週操作區間可定在2380-2450(1)有待突破。中線留意消化性三角(2)。
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日線圖(上圖) > 金價仍然行走在上升通道(4)當中，但留意2450(3)以上沽盤仍然較重。本週早段主要以消化三角(5)操作，突破後價格才會出現明顯變化。
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上周一开市价格去到早前提及的2450-2455后，出现有力量的反弹，5M可见该段力量的0.618位刚好是有个阻力位，向下做是个好好的入市位，第一关先看前双底。周二从低位2364反弹后，升不穿2415前底，并在美盘时段出力量反弹，5M可看到周三美盘形成了横行假突破，即市向下做都是一个机会，但由于假突破的力量和速度较差，风险较高，第一关先看横行底。现价2431，从4H图看价格未到大横行底2350便收针反弹，而且在周四发力升穿2415阻力，短线向上看会较有利。布署的话，若周一开市后向下回调先，可留意2405-2415的范围有没有反弹力量，若反弹位置与潜在的上升通道底重叠就更好。若向上行先，去到早前发力向下的2450和潜在上升通道顶重叠时就看看有没有细图的反弹力量可做，第一关2415。K.LAM风险提示: 场外式黄金/白银交易涉及高度风险，未必适合所有投资者。高度的杠杆可为阁下带来负面或正面的影响。阁下在决定买卖场外式黄金/白银之前应审慎考虑自己的投资目标、交易经验以及风险接受程度。可能出现的情况包括蒙受部分或全部初始投资额的损失，或在极端情况下（例如相关市场跳空）产生更多的损失。因此，阁下不应将无法承受损失的资金用于投资。投资应知悉买卖场外式黄金/白银有关的一切风险，如有需要，请向独立财务顾问寻求意见。市场资料仅供参考，MAX Online 绝不保证分析内容的准确性。
Data released by mortgage lender Halifax on Wednesday showed that UK house prices rose by the most in six months in July, indicating new momentum in the housing market. House prices rose 2.3% year-on-year, the biggest annual increase since January. The last time house prices rose more year-on-year was in February 2023, when they rose 2.5%.The Labour Party, which won a landslide victory in last month’s parliamentary election, promised to reform Britain’s planning system and set mandatory targets for faster housebuilding, but supply shortages are likely to remain a factor driving house prices in the medium term. In addition, last week, the Bank of England cut interest rates to 5% from a 16-year high of 5.25%, the first cut since March 2020. “Against the backdrop of falling mortgage rates and the possibility of further cuts in base rates, we expect house prices to continue to rise modestly over the rest of the year,” said Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax.Other indicators of the housing market also show momentum is picking up. Last week, rival mortgage lender Nationwide said its measure of house prices rose 2.1% in the 12 months to July, the biggest annual increase since December 2022.
抵押貸款機構哈利法克斯週三公佈的數據顯示，英國房價 7 月漲幅為六個月來最大，顯示房地產市場出現了新的勢頭。房價年增 2.3%，為 1 月以來的最大年度漲幅。上次房價年增率更多是在 2023 年 2 月，當時上漲了 2.5%。在上個月的國會選舉中取得壓倒性勝利的工黨承諾改革英國的規劃體系，並製定了加快房屋建設的強制性目標，但供應短缺可能仍是推動中期房價的一個因素。此外，上週，英國央行將利率從 16 年高點 5.25% 下調至 5%，這是自 2020 年 3 月以來的首次下調。 「在抵押貸款利率下降和基準利率可能進一步下調的背景下，我們預計今年剩餘時間內房價將繼續溫和上漲，」哈利法克斯抵押貸款主管 Amanda Bryden 表示。房地產市場的其他指標也顯示出勢頭正在回升。上週，競爭對手抵押貸款機構 Nationwide 表示，其衡量房價的指標在截至 7 月的 12 個月內上漲了 2.1%，這是自 2022 年 12 月以來的最大年度漲幅。
抵押贷款机构哈利法克斯周三公布的数据显示，英国房价 7 月份涨幅为六个月来最大，表明房地产市场出现了新的势头。房价同比上涨 2.3%，为 1 月以来的最大年度涨幅。上次房价同比上涨更多是在 2023 年 2 月，当时上涨了 2.5%。在上个月的议会选举中取得压倒性胜利的工党承诺改革英国的规划体系，并制定了加快房屋建设的强制性目标，但供应短缺可能仍是推动中期房价的一个因素。此外，上周，英国央行将利率从 16 年高点 5.25% 下调至 5%，这是自 2020 年 3 月以来的首次下调。“在抵押贷款利率下降和基准利率可能进一步下调的背景下，我们预计今年剩余时间内房价将继续温和上涨，”哈利法克斯抵押贷款主管 Amanda Bryden 表示。房地产市场的其他指标也显示出势头正在回升。上周，竞争对手抵押贷款机构 Nationwide 表示，其衡量房价的指标在截至 7 月的 12 个月内上涨了 2.1%，这是自 2022 年 12 月以来的最大年度涨幅。
U.S. service sector activity rebounded from a four-year low in July, with new orders rebounding and employment rising for the first time in six months, potentially helping to calm recession fears sparked by last month’s surge in unemployment and an ongoing stock market selloff. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 51.4 last month from 48.8 in June, the lowest level since May 2020. A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. The ISM believes that over time, readings above 49 generally indicate that the overall economy is expanding.Government data released on Friday showed the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, the highest level in nearly three years, from 4.1% in June. The labor market is slowing as the Federal Reserve’s sharp interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 dampen demand. The U.S. central bank last week kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in a range of 5.25%-5.50%, a level it has held for more than a year, but opened the door to lower borrowing costs at its next meeting as early as September. Financial markets are also pricing in rate cuts in November and December.The ISM survey’s gauge of new orders rebounded to 52.4 from 47.3 in June, the lowest level since December 2022. Its services employment gauge rose to 51.1 from 46.1 in June, the first increase since January. The index rose 5 points, its second-biggest gain in more than three years, following a 6.7-point gain in January.This would support the view that the slowdown in nonfarm payrolls in July does not signal the start of a deterioration in the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 114,000 jobs last month, the second-smallest increase this year, while service providers added just 72,000 jobs, the first since December 2020 when both services and overall employment fell. lowest level. Services inflation picked up slightly in July, but that may not be enough to reverse weakening price pressures. The ISM service input payment price index rose slightly to 57.0 from 56.3 in June.
美国服务业活动在 7 月从四年低点反弹，新订单反弹，就业率六个月来首次增加，这可能有助于平息上个月失业率飙升和股市持续抛售引发的衰退担忧。美国供应管理协会 (ISM) 周一表示，其非制造业采购经理人 (PMI) 指数从 6 月的 48.8 升至上个月的 51.4，为 2020 年 5 月以来的最低水平。 PMI 读数高于 50 表示服务业成长，服务业占经济的三分之二以上。 ISM 认为，随着时间的推移，读数高于 49 通常表示整体经济正在扩张。周五公布的政府数据显示，7 月失业率从 6 月的 4.1% 升至近三年来的最高水准 4.3%。由于联准会在 2022 年和 2023 年大幅升息抑制了需求，劳动市场正在放缓。美国央行上周将基准隔夜利率维持在 5.25%-5.50% 的区间，这一水平已经维持了一年多，但为最早在 9 月的下次会议上降低借贷成本打开了大门。金融市场也预计 11 月和 12 月将降息。ISM 调查的新订单指标从 6 月的 47.3 反弹至 52.4，为 2022 年 12 月以来的最低水准。其服务业就业指标从 6 月的 46.1 升至 51.1，这是自 1 月以来的首次增长。该指数上涨 5 点，是自 1 月上涨 6.7 点以来三年多来第二大涨幅。这将支持以下观点：7 月份非农就业人数放缓并不代表劳动市场开始恶化。上个月非农就业人数增加了114,000 个，是今年第二小的增幅，而服务提供者仅增加了72,000 个就业岗位，这是自2020 年12 月以来服务业和整体就业人数均下降以来的最低水平。服务业通膨在 7 月略有回升，但可能不足以改变价格压力减弱的局面。 ISM服务投入支付价格指数从6月的56.3小幅上升至57.0。
美國服務業活動在 7 月從四年低點反彈，新訂單反彈，就業率六個月來首次增加，這可能有助於平息上個月失業率飆升和股市持續拋售引發的衰退擔憂。美國供應管理協會 (ISM) 週一表示，其非製造業採購經理人 (PMI) 指數從 6 月的 48.8 升至上個月的 51.4，為 2020 年 5 月以來的最低水平。 PMI 讀數高於 50 表示服務業成長，服務業佔經濟的三分之二以上。 ISM 認為，隨著時間的推移，讀數高於 49 通常表示整體經濟正在擴張。週五公佈的政府數據顯示，7 月失業率從 6 月的 4.1% 升至近三年來的最高水準 4.3%。由於聯準會在 2022 年和 2023 年大幅升息抑制了需求，勞動市場正在放緩。美國央行上週將基準隔夜利率維持在 5.25%-5.50% 的區間，這一水平已經維持了一年多，但為最早在 9 月的下次會議上降低借貸成本打開了大門。金融市場也預計 11 月和 12 月將降息。ISM 調查的新訂單指標從 6 月的 47.3 反彈至 52.4，為 2022 年 12 月以來的最低水準。其服務業就業指標從 6 月的 46.1 升至 51.1，這是自 1 月以來的首次增長。該指數上漲 5 點，是自 1 月上漲 6.7 點以來三年多來第二大漲幅。這將支持以下觀點：7 月份非農就業人數放緩並不代表勞動市場開始惡化。上個月非農就業人數增加了114,000 個，是今年第二小的增幅，而服務提供者僅增加了72,000 個就業崗位，這是自2020 年12 月以來服務業和整體就業人數均下降以來的最低水平。服務業通膨在 7 月略有回升，但可能不足以改變價格壓力減弱的局面。 ISM服務投入支付價格指數從6月的56.3小幅上升至57.0。
The spot gold price went up during the week but fell after Friday’s US non-farm payroll report. Looking back at last week, the price broke through the 2400 resistance before the Fed—meeting on Wed. The price kept on rising after Powell’s dovish speech, and tensions rose in the Middle East as Iran’s leader ordered attacks on Israel in response to the assassination of a Hamas leader. The US released weaker-than-expected job data on Fri., causing gold prices to hit a weekly high and rechallenge the historical peak 2480. However, the market quickly focused on concerns that the US economy might enter a recession. US stocks rapidly fell from their highs, dragging gold prices down to a daily low of 2410, closing the week at 2442.
According to CME FedWatch, the latest interest rate futures indicate that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September increased from 22% on Thursday to 95% early in the Monday Asian session. Whether in the gold or stock markets, a rate cut should boost the market. However, despite reaching twice above 2450 in the past month, the spot gold price didn’t have any significant new long-buying position above 2450 but profit-taking and new short-selling positions. The market now broadly expects the first rate cut to happen in September. As the first rate cut approaches, it is almost time for investors who entered long for the ‘rate cut’ concept at the beginning of the year to plan their exit. ‘Buy on the rumour, sell on the news’ ~ gold prices may still hit a new high before September, but expect a significant correction around the first rate cut!
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1-hour Chart > The price still runs within the upward wedge(2). In the S-T, gold prices are supported by the trendline(2.1). If this support is broken, a significant correction may occur, with a target of 2400. Currently, the range of 2450-53 is acting as an S-T resistance zone, while stronger resistance is expected at 2478-80.
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Daily Chart > No major economic data are expected to be released this week, and gold prices are unlikely to break high. The initial expectation is to work within the range of 2410-80 established last Friday.
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