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 Indonesia’s April trade surplus was slightly higher than expected at $3.56 billion, as imports were lower than expected, Statistics Indonesia data showed on Wednesday.Southeast Asia’s largest economy has reported a merchandise trade surplus every month for the past four years, but the surplus has been narrowing recently due to weak exports. For more than a year, the resource-rich country’s exports have been hurt by falling commodity prices and weak global trade. Exports in April increased by 1.72% year-on-year to US$19.62 billion, lower than economists’ expectations of 4.57%. Although weaker than expected, Indonesia’s exports expanded in April for the first time in 11 months.Affected by falling global coal prices, coal shipments fell 19.26% to $2.61 billion in April from the same period last year despite higher export volumes. Coal is Indonesia’s largest export product. Imports grew by 4.62% to US$16.06 billion, while economists predicted an annual growth rate of 8.69%.April trade data reinforced expectations from Permata Bank economist Josua Pardede that Indonesia will continue to see a decline in its trade surplus and a widening of its current account deficit this year, but only to a limited extent. Pardede said: “As inflation expectations remain low, considering that the external balance is controllable and the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate remains stable, we believe that Bank Indonesia may maintain the BI interest rate at 6.25% at the Bank Indonesia meeting in May.”Bank Indonesia will hold its monthly monetary policy review next week. The central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates in April to support the rupiah currency after it fell to a four-year low against the dollar. Governor Perry Warjiyo said last week that the central bank may not need to raise interest rates further as the currency stabilizes and capital inflows return.

 Australian Treasurer Chalmers said on Sunday that this week’s federal budget is expected to help ease the country’s stubbornly high inflation as many Australians continue to deal with cost-of-living pressures.Economists at the Reserve Bank of Australia forecast that consumer inflation would rise to 3.8% in June from 3.6% in the first quarter and remain at that level until the end of the year, highlighting local inflation challenges. Since May 2022, the central bank has responded to persistently high inflation by raising interest rates by 425 basis points to a 12-year high of 4.35%.Chalmers said the budget due to be published on Tuesday would be “primarily, but not exclusively, focused on inflation”. “The budget will be a responsible budget that will ease cost of living pressures and invest in the future of Australian manufacturing,” he added.Officials said on Tuesday the budget would focus on housing as rising rents, rising interest rates and soaring costs of living in recent years have exacerbated what was already the world’s most unaffordable rental market. Chalmers said the government would chart a responsible middle path in a budget that would put it on track for a second surplus despite more spending measures.

 Data released by Japan show that Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages fell by 2.5% annually in March, falling for two consecutive years. The data showed the pace of decline accelerated from 1.8% last month as rising costs of living outpaced nominal wages. Japan is seeing early signs of a virtuous cycle of rising wages and inflation. However, workers’ incomes still lag behind rising costs, underscoring the challenges policymakers face in getting companies to raise wages.Some economists say they expect real wages to turn positive sometime in the 2024/25 financial year. Nominal wages, the average total cash earnings per worker, rose 0.6% to 301,193 yen ($1,940.30), a slowdown from 1.4% in February. On the other hand, consumer prices increased by 3.1% year-on-year in March, slightly slower than the 3.3% increase in February, hovering above the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target and price growth. Of total cash receipts, regular wages, which determine basic wages, increased by 1.7%, while overtime wages fell by 1.5%, falling for the fourth consecutive month. Special payments such as bonuses and other benefits in March are reduced by 9.4% annually.At annual labor talks this year, Japan’s major companies offered to raise workers’ monthly wages by more than 5 percent, a level not seen in about three decades. But small businesses, which employ seven in 10 workers, are lagging behind, holding back wage gains. Low-wage informal workers also make up about 40% of the workforce. The specter of sluggish wage growth is dashing policymakers’ hopes of achieving healthy economic growth led by durable inflation and stable wages, which are considered a prerequisite for normalizing monetary policy.

 The government said on Sunday that a weakening global economy and a slowdown at home were among the reasons Australia reported a smaller increase in federal budget revenue for the year to June 30 than in recent years. The Labor government is expected to report a budget surplus on May 14, although it said in March that revenue growth would be smaller than a year earlier due to lower commodity prices and a weaker labor market. On Sunday, it said the tax revenue hikes in the budget, which excludes levies from the goods and services tax, are expected to be more than A$100 billion ($66.08 billion) higher than the average hike of A$129 billion in the past three budgets.The expected results are due to a weakening global economy, a slowdown in the domestic economy, a weak labor market and falling commodity prices, the report said. “We are realistic about the challenges facing the economy and budget, including that the kind of large-scale revenue upgrade we saw in the recent budget update will not continue,” Finance Minister Jim Chalmers said in a statement. Chalmers has previously cited weak commodity prices, particularly for key export iron ore, and rising unemployment as key drivers of the change. Australia’s unemployment rate reached 4.1% in January, a two-year high. In April, he warned that events in the Middle East had heightened concerns about the global economy and would impact the government’s budget in May.

 A former central bank official who was involved in the Tokyo market push a decade ago said Japan may continue to intervene to support the yen until the risk of speculators triggering a sharp yen depreciation is removed. The yen rose sharply on Thursday, a day after traders suspected intervention measures were taken on Monday to stem a sharp decline. Japan’s Finance Ministry declined to confirm whether it had intervened, making markets nervous about the possibility of another round of intervention.At the time of Tokyo’s intervention from 2010 to 2012, Ton Takeuchi, head of the Bank of Japan’s foreign exchange department, said Japan might enter the market on Monday because the yen suffered sudden and huge losses in a short period of time that day. He said if the yen suddenly appreciated 2-3 points in a day without supervision, it could trigger a free fall in the yen, exacerbating concerns about the yen and the broader economy. By intervening when the yen’s decline accelerates in the short term, the authorities can maximize the psychological impact by alerting traders to the possibility of more action.Japan has historically been primarily concerned with preventing a sharp appreciation of the yen that would damage its export-reliant economy. Takeuchi participated in several yen sell-off intervention actions between 2010 and 2012. Under Japanese law, the government has jurisdiction over monetary policy, with the Bank of Japan acting as an agent for the Finance Ministry in deciding when to intervene.

 Inflation in Germany edged up in April as food prices rose and energy prices fell less than in previous months, preliminary data from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Monday. Compared with other EU countries, consumer prices in Germany rose 2.4% in April, following a 2.3% annual increase in March. “The year-and-a-half-long downward trend in German inflation may be temporarily over,” Commerzbank economist Ralf Solving said, adding that inflation could rise again in the coming months.Economists are closely watching German inflation data ahead of broader euro zone inflation data on Tuesday, which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.4%, unchanged from last month. The European Central Bank has made clear it will start lowering borrowing costs in June. Germany’s core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 3.0% in April from 3.3% in March. Commerzbank expects core inflation to stabilize around current levels, especially as service sector companies pass on sharp increases in wage costs to customers.

 British consumer confidence returned to a two-year high this month as households took a more positive view of the economy and their own finances, a long-term survey showed. Consumer confidence rose to -19 in April from -21 in March, unchanged from January’s reading and the highest level since January 2022, just before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered a spike in energy costs and other expenses . Economists had forecast a slightly smaller increase of -20. A year ago, the index was -30.The inflation rate fell to a two-and-a-half-year low of 3.2% in March, the British minimum wage increased by nearly 10% in April, and employees’ national insurance contributions fell by 2 percentage points. Finance secretary Jeremy Hunt said he wanted further tax cuts if there was room in public finances ahead of an election expected by Chancellor Rishi Sunak later this year.

 UK house sales prices are near a record high after their biggest annual rise in a year, according to an industry survey that suggested momentum in the housing market at the start of 2024 continued into April. Residential property asking prices rose 1.7% in the four weeks to April 13 compared with the same period last year. Prices sought by sellers rose 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, a slowdown from the 1.5% gain in the previous four weeks. The average asking price from new sellers is £372,324 ($463,320), just £570 below the record price in May 2023.Other indicators of the UK housing market also point to a recovery in demand and prices, helped by a fall in borrowing costs in 2022, when former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s sweeping tax cut plan roiled financial markets and led to Costs soared. The number of new sellers increased by 12% compared with the same period last year, and the number of sales increased by 13%. Demand is strongest at the top end of the market, with asking price increases so far in 2024 the highest since 2014.Surveys show first- and second-time homebuyers generally rely more on mortgages and see smaller increases in demand for properties. Although the current situation is optimistic, these are not the conditions to support a significant price increase, and sellers keen to ensure sales still need to price realistically based on the local market and avoid being too ambitious.