Global Shorts
April 18, 2024
0

ECB deputy president says central bank has ‘clearly’ signaled it may cut interest rates in June

 The European Central Bank has made it “clear” that it may cut interest rates in June, Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday, but also insisted that policy decisions beyond that remained pending. The European Central Bank last week put a June rate cut on the table and strengthened that guidance over the past week, despite rising oil prices, a weaker euro and bets that the Fed will delay a rate cut.”I think we have been very clear that if things continue as they have been recently, we will be ready in June to reduce the restrictions on the stance of monetary policy,” De Guindos told a parliamentary hearing in Brussels. De Guindos Doss reiterated the ECB’s latest guidance that inflation was 2.4% in March and will hover around current levels in the coming months, but will fall back to the ECB’s 2% target next year.Markets now expect the central bank to cut its 4% deposit rate by 75 basis points this year, two full cuts after June, but De Guindos declined to say where rates might go, even though some policymakers have floated the idea in July second move.

Technical Analysis
April 15, 2024
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Gold Trend 15/04

The rapid retraction from the new high suggests the gold price has entered a short-term correction period.

Gold reached a new all-time high of 2431 last Friday after the US market opened, but the price quickly retreated. It lost key support of 2400 and 2380, falling back to the bottom support of Thursday near 2330, ending the weekly at 2343 with a slight increase of 13 dollars. The market had been anticipating retaliatory actions from Iran following the attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, creating a relatively tense environment that led to the climb in gold prices in the past two weeks. There was noticeable profit-taking in the market, coincidentally 24 hours before Iran’s retaliation. After the long-awaited Iran’s retaliatory action, the risk sentiment decreased abruptly; although gold opened with a gap of around 10 dollars on Monday’s Asian session, the movement remained relatively calm. The S-T upward trend began to slow down after the rapid retracement on Friday. At this point, we can expect a range-bound consolidation to begin to form this week.

1-Hr Chart – The gold price has been steadily climbing along the upward trend channel(1) since it broke through the 2300 resistance at the night of the non-farm payroll at the beginning of the month. The price is still sitting within the upward channel(1). However, S-T resistance is expected around 2375-2380 after the market experienced significant volatility on Friday. For now, the trading range for this week can be set at around 2318-2380(2).

Daily Chart – After the reversal in gold price last Friday, there is a clear indication of a potential peak (3). As long as the closing price in the next two days remains below 2373 (4), a more noticeable correction is likely to occur. The initial target for this correction can be set around the 20-day moving average (5).

Monthly Chart – It is important to note that the gold price is approaching the upper boundaries of the long-term upward channels (6) and (7). For the upward trend to continue, the gold price must break through the resistance line at the top of the channels. Otherwise, a correction in the overall trend may be needed.

S-T ressitance 3

2380

S-T ressitance 2

2370-72

S-T ressitance 1

2365

Market price

2359

S-T support 1

2350-52

S-T support 2

2345

S-T support 3

2338-40

P. To

Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

Technical Analysis
March 25, 2024
0

Gold Trend 25/03

Following the Fed meeting, gold reached a new all-time high of 2222 last week. However, it failed to stay above 2200 and retraced quickly below the previous high of 2195 within 24 hours. This Friday is a US holiday, but the inflation data(PCE price index) will still be released. Make sure you pay close attention to market volatility at the late Friday session and the early Monday Asian session, and exercise caution in managing risks.

1-hr chart – The price broke through the S-T resistance(1) last week and reached our target range of 2185-2190 (2). Although it subsequently reached a new high, the price is now falling back to 2147-90(3). The resistance zone of 2186-90(2) is still valid. Take advantage of the rebound driven by the newly formed upward channel(4) at the beginning of this week, and expect the price to be bound within 2147-90 (3) in S-T until another news breaks out.

Daily chart – After the quick pull-back after the Fed. Meeting last week, a reserval signal(5) has appeared. Unless the gold price can close above 2190 on the daily chart, an S-T consolidation period is likely to occur in the next two weeks. Again, 2147 is the key support level, once its clear the next support will be at the 20-day MA.

S-T ressitance 3

2190

S-T ressitance 2

2185

S-T ressitance 1

2180

Market price

2175

S-T support 1

2168

S-T support 2

2165

S-T support 3

2155

P. To

Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

Global Shorts
March 18, 2024
0

China’s industrial added value grew 7% from January to February, exceeding expectations

  Data on Monday showed that China’s industrial output rose 7.0% annually in January-February, accelerating from 6.8% in December, beating expectations, marking a good start to 2024 and providing temporary relief to policymakers.         The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) was significantly higher than the 5.0% growth forecast in a Reuters analyst poll. Retail sales, an indicator of consumption, rose 5.5% in the first two months of the year, slowing from a 7.4% gain in December. Analysts had expected retail sales to rise 5.2%. Fixed asset investment rose 4.2% annually over the two months, compared with expectations for growth of 3.2%. The full-year growth in 2023 is 3.0%.

Technical Analysis
March 18, 2024
0

Gold Trend 18/03

After reaching a new high of 2195, the gold price stayed sideways between 2155-85(1) last week. This week’s only major event will be the Fed meeting. Following the slight rebound in US core CPI data last week, expect the post-Fed meeting announcement to lean towards a hawkish stance, which could have a bearish impact on the gold price.

1-hr Chart – The gold price is still bounded within the range of 2155-85 (3), and it is currently trading under the S-T resistance line (2) that has been in place for the past few trading days. If the critical support level of 2147-2150(1) is breached, the next downside target can be set around 2120(4).

Daily Chart – Structurally, there hasn’t been any significant change on the daily chart, with the upward channel(5) remaining valid. The gold price is still standing above the previous high of 2147(7). If the buying support from the previous high of 2147(7) is cleared, a major correction toward 2120 should occur and pay attention to the next support at the 20-day MA(6).

S-T ressitance 3

2168

S-T ressitance 2

2160

S-T ressitance 1

2155

Market price

2152

S-T support 1

2147-50

S-T support 2

2140

S-T support 3

2130

P. To

Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

Global Shorts
March 14, 2024
0

China’s central bank will keep key interest rates unchanged on Friday amid uncertainty over the Fed’s easing policy

Amid uncertainty over the timing of the Fed’s rate cut, the People’s Bank of China is expected to keep key policy rates unchanged when it rolls over maturing medium-term loans on Friday.Market observers generally believe that Beijing will continue to prioritize the stability of the yuan, despite widespread agreement that the struggling economy needs more stimulus.Cutting interest rates before the Fed or other major central banks take action would widen yield differentials and could put more pressure on the yuan. Despite the central bank’s continued efforts to support the yuan, the yuan has depreciated 1.3% against the dollar so far this year.”We maintain our view that the People’s Bank of China will not cut rates ahead of the Fed,” said DBS economist Samuel Tse.”After all, the authorities aim to stabilize the exchange rate to prevent further capital outflows. Stabilizing economic data also leaves room for delaying a decision to cut interest rates.”The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates this year if inflation cools, with markets currently pricing in a 65% chance of a rate cut in June, according to LSEG’s Rate Probability app, although that’s down from 71% earlier this week. dropped. The chance of a rate cut in July is about 83%.Traders and analysts said a rate cut or series of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve would give China’s central bank room to maneuver to lower borrowing costs to support economic growth.A bond fund manager in Beijing said that “China’s policy interest rate adjustment may have to wait until the timing of the U.S. interest rate cut is clear.” He expects the central bank to fully roll over maturing MLF loans and even provide some new funds to the market. Financial system on Friday.However, Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, said last week that the bank would keep the yuan basically stable and sent a dovish message to the market, saying China “has abundant monetary policy tools.””We expect China to introduce more loose monetary policies to support economic growth,” Barclays economists said in a note.”We expect policy rates to be cut by 10 basis points in both the second quarter and third quarter, and expect the bank reserve ratio (RRR) to be cut by 25-50 basis points in the second quarter and by another 25-50 basis points in the third quarter.”

Global Shorts
March 11, 2024
0

UK allows professional investors to use cryptocurrency exchanges to trade notes

  Britain’s financial regulator on Monday approved the launch of cryptocurrency-backed exchange-traded notes for professional investors, becoming the latest regulator to allow digital asset products while trying to protect retail investors.The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said in a statement that such products – bonds issued by financial institutions that track the performance of the underlying assets – will only be available to investment firms and credit institutions authorized to operate in financial markets.The FCA said the ban on cryptocurrency exchange-traded notes (ETNs) and derivatives for retail investors will remain in place, calling it “unsuitable” because “they can cause harm.”The London Stock Exchange said in a separate statement on Monday that it will accept applications for admission to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETNs starting in the second quarter of this year.In recent months, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund, while calling the token a “speculative, volatile asset and used for illegal activities” and urging investors to exercise caution. Crypto markets have surged in recent months. .Bitcoin hit an all-time high above $70,600 on Monday, driven by an influx of cash into Bitcoin ETFs and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon.The FCA said that with “deeper insights and data from longer-term trading history,” professional investors can better determine whether cryptocurrency ETNs meet their risk appetite. The exchange said it must ensure orderly trading and protect investors.However, the FCA reiterated warnings from recent years, saying cryptocurrencies are “highly risky and largely unregulated” and that investors could “lose all their money.”Jake Green, global head of financial regulation at law firm Ashurst, said the FCA’s stance on cryptocurrencies and retail investors was in a “state of flux”.He said the regulator “clearly doesn’t want to get close” to the idea that “retail investors can buy cryptocurrencies in the form of FCA-regulated financial instruments”.

Technical Analysis
March 11, 2024
0

Gold Trend 11/03 – Reversal signals yet to appear

The gold price was unstoppable last week. It broke clear the December high of 2088 and surpassed the historical high of 2147. On Friday, even with better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, it continued to rise before the market closed, reaching a new all-time high of 2195. This week, the US will release core CPI and retail sales data on Tuesday and Thursday, if inflation slows down and the data disappoints, we can expect the gold price to continue its upward movement.

1-hr Chart – The gold price was rejected by 2190(1) again during the Asian session today. Since breaking through the resistance at 2147-2150 last week, an S-T upward channel(3) has formed in the past 48 hours. If the gold price breaks below the upward channel(3) after Tuesday’s data, the trading range can be set between 2155-85(2).

Daily Chart – After breaking through the December high of 2088 (4) last week, gold officially began its uptrend. The upside target 2190, estimated based on the previous consolidation range of 1:1 (4.1), has been reached. As the gold price is approaching the upper resistance of the M-T upward channel(5), the gold price has pullback(6) before the market closed on Friday. Keep an eye out; it would be the first signal of another surge if the gold price closes above 2178 on the daily chart in the next 2 days. Otherwise, a retreatment toward 2147-50 will begin.

P. To

Global Shorts
March 07, 2024
0

U.S. job openings fell slightly in January

 U.S. job openings fell slightly in January, while hiring also declined as labor market conditions continued to gradually ease. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, fell by 26,000 to 8.863 million on the last day of January, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report.December’s data was revised downward to show 8.889 million job openings, instead of the 9.026 million previously reported. Economists predict there will be 8.9 million job openings in January. In March 2022, job vacancies peaked at a record 12 million. Recruitment fell by 100,000 jobs to 5,687,000. The number of resignations in January was 3.385 million, a decrease of 54,000.In prepared remarks to lawmakers on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed expected to begin cutting interest rates this year, but warned that there was uncertainty about the economic outlook and that continued progress toward the 2% inflation target was unlikely. uncertain. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised its policy interest rate by 525 basis points to the current range of 5.25%-5.50%. The Labor Department is expected to report Friday that nonfarm payrolls rose by 200,000 in February, according to a survey of economists. The economy added 353,000 jobs in January. Job growth has slowed from the strong pace in 2022, but wage gains are well above the roughly 100,000 jobs needed each month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%, with annual wage growth slowing to 4.4% from 4.5% in January.

Global Shorts
March 04, 2024
0

China approves plan to boost investment and spending

According to state media reports, China’s cabinet has approved a plan to promote the upgrading of large-scale equipment and sales of consumer goods. This plan is part of a broader effort by China to stimulate its economy, which has been experiencing weak recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic.The government intends to launch a new initiative to encourage the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, with the aim of increasing the proportion of advanced production capacity. The cabinet meeting, chaired by Premier Li Qiang, emphasized the need to promptly improve and implement the plan to ensure the continuous introduction of high-quality and durable consumer goods into the lives of residents.During a previous similar scheme between 2009 and 2011, the Chinese government provided subsidies of around 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) to buyers of home appliances. Analysts at Societe Generale estimate that to match the significance of the previous round of subsidies, subsidies in 2024 would need to reach at least 60 billion yuan, considering the larger size of China’s GDP.China’s parliament is expected to unveil moderate stimulus plans during its annual meeting, which begins on Tuesday. However, there may be some disappointment among those expecting a detailed roadmap of bold measures to address the country’s deep structural imbalances.