Global Shorts
March 11, 2024
0

UK allows professional investors to use cryptocurrency exchanges to trade notes

  Britain’s financial regulator on Monday approved the launch of cryptocurrency-backed exchange-traded notes for professional investors, becoming the latest regulator to allow digital asset products while trying to protect retail investors.The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said in a statement that such products – bonds issued by financial institutions that track the performance of the underlying assets – will only be available to investment firms and credit institutions authorized to operate in financial markets.The FCA said the ban on cryptocurrency exchange-traded notes (ETNs) and derivatives for retail investors will remain in place, calling it “unsuitable” because “they can cause harm.”The London Stock Exchange said in a separate statement on Monday that it will accept applications for admission to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETNs starting in the second quarter of this year.In recent months, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund, while calling the token a “speculative, volatile asset and used for illegal activities” and urging investors to exercise caution. Crypto markets have surged in recent months. .Bitcoin hit an all-time high above $70,600 on Monday, driven by an influx of cash into Bitcoin ETFs and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon.The FCA said that with “deeper insights and data from longer-term trading history,” professional investors can better determine whether cryptocurrency ETNs meet their risk appetite. The exchange said it must ensure orderly trading and protect investors.However, the FCA reiterated warnings from recent years, saying cryptocurrencies are “highly risky and largely unregulated” and that investors could “lose all their money.”Jake Green, global head of financial regulation at law firm Ashurst, said the FCA’s stance on cryptocurrencies and retail investors was in a “state of flux”.He said the regulator “clearly doesn’t want to get close” to the idea that “retail investors can buy cryptocurrencies in the form of FCA-regulated financial instruments”.

Technical Analysis
March 11, 2024
0

Gold Trend 11/03 – Reversal signals yet to appear

The gold price was unstoppable last week. It broke clear the December high of 2088 and surpassed the historical high of 2147. On Friday, even with better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, it continued to rise before the market closed, reaching a new all-time high of 2195. This week, the US will release core CPI and retail sales data on Tuesday and Thursday, if inflation slows down and the data disappoints, we can expect the gold price to continue its upward movement.

1-hr Chart – The gold price was rejected by 2190(1) again during the Asian session today. Since breaking through the resistance at 2147-2150 last week, an S-T upward channel(3) has formed in the past 48 hours. If the gold price breaks below the upward channel(3) after Tuesday’s data, the trading range can be set between 2155-85(2).

Daily Chart – After breaking through the December high of 2088 (4) last week, gold officially began its uptrend. The upside target 2190, estimated based on the previous consolidation range of 1:1 (4.1), has been reached. As the gold price is approaching the upper resistance of the M-T upward channel(5), the gold price has pullback(6) before the market closed on Friday. Keep an eye out; it would be the first signal of another surge if the gold price closes above 2178 on the daily chart in the next 2 days. Otherwise, a retreatment toward 2147-50 will begin.

P. To

Global Shorts
March 07, 2024
0

U.S. job openings fell slightly in January

 U.S. job openings fell slightly in January, while hiring also declined as labor market conditions continued to gradually ease. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, fell by 26,000 to 8.863 million on the last day of January, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report.December’s data was revised downward to show 8.889 million job openings, instead of the 9.026 million previously reported. Economists predict there will be 8.9 million job openings in January. In March 2022, job vacancies peaked at a record 12 million. Recruitment fell by 100,000 jobs to 5,687,000. The number of resignations in January was 3.385 million, a decrease of 54,000.In prepared remarks to lawmakers on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed expected to begin cutting interest rates this year, but warned that there was uncertainty about the economic outlook and that continued progress toward the 2% inflation target was unlikely. uncertain. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised its policy interest rate by 525 basis points to the current range of 5.25%-5.50%. The Labor Department is expected to report Friday that nonfarm payrolls rose by 200,000 in February, according to a survey of economists. The economy added 353,000 jobs in January. Job growth has slowed from the strong pace in 2022, but wage gains are well above the roughly 100,000 jobs needed each month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%, with annual wage growth slowing to 4.4% from 4.5% in January.

Global Shorts
March 04, 2024
0

China approves plan to boost investment and spending

According to state media reports, China’s cabinet has approved a plan to promote the upgrading of large-scale equipment and sales of consumer goods. This plan is part of a broader effort by China to stimulate its economy, which has been experiencing weak recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic.The government intends to launch a new initiative to encourage the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, with the aim of increasing the proportion of advanced production capacity. The cabinet meeting, chaired by Premier Li Qiang, emphasized the need to promptly improve and implement the plan to ensure the continuous introduction of high-quality and durable consumer goods into the lives of residents.During a previous similar scheme between 2009 and 2011, the Chinese government provided subsidies of around 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) to buyers of home appliances. Analysts at Societe Generale estimate that to match the significance of the previous round of subsidies, subsidies in 2024 would need to reach at least 60 billion yuan, considering the larger size of China’s GDP.China’s parliament is expected to unveil moderate stimulus plans during its annual meeting, which begins on Tuesday. However, there may be some disappointment among those expecting a detailed roadmap of bold measures to address the country’s deep structural imbalances.

Technical Analysis
March 04, 2024
0

Gold Trend 04/03 – The next bull after US stocks & crypto ?

A series of US data was released last week. The durable goods orders and 4Q GDP announced early on Tue’s and Wed’s were both below market expectations. However, the price of gold remained in a narrow range. It wasn’t until Thur’s release of the core PCE price index that the gold price finally broke clear the resistance zone of 2035-40. On Fri, a new round of buying was triggered after a weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI pushed the price to the recent high of 2088.

The latest CME FedWatch indicates that the probability of a rate cut in May is now around 27%, while the likelihood for June has risen to around 70%. The rate cut news/rumours will push the gold price higher, however, the 2088 resistance still needs to be clear. Once the price passes 2088, the 1st target can be set at around 2045. A strict stop-loss order should be in place if you choose to short-selling above 2080.

1-Hour Chart – Gold has triggered a round of buying after escaping the triangle pattern (1) last Thur. The upward momentum has accelerated on Fri’s US session, passing the early Feb high of 2065(2) and reaching the Dec high of 2088(3). The buying momentum failed to carry on at the early Asian session back from the weekend. A high-volume market condition is needed for gold to clear the 2088 resistance, pay attention to Tue’s non-manufacturing PMI, Wed.’s Powell speech. Consider the trading range of 2065-88(4) for now.

Daily Chart – Gold escapes downward channel (4) last week, and the M-T trend shifted from a downtrend to a sideways consolidation, where the range has expanded from 1985-2065(5) to 1985-2088(5.1). The price needs to break above 2088 in terms of structure to initiate a new round of buying orders.

S-T ressitance 3

2100

S-T ressitance 2

2095

S-T ressitance 1

2085-88

Market price

2080

S-T support 1

2070

S-T support 2

2065

S-T support 3

2018-20

P. To

Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

Global Shorts
February 29, 2024
0

India’s April-Jan fiscal deficit at 64% of 2023/24 target

India’s fiscal deficit for the period of April to January in the 2023/24 financial year stood at 11.03 trillion rupees ($133.1 billion), which is approximately 63.6% of the estimated deficit for the entire year, according to government data released on Thursday. During the same period, net tax revenues reached 18.80 trillion rupees, which accounts for around 81% of the yearly estimate, showing an increase from 16.89 trillion rupees in the corresponding period of the previous year. Total expenditure during this period amounted to 33.55 trillion rupees, or roughly 75% of the annual target, compared to 31.68 trillion rupees in the same period last year. Additionally, the government’s capital expenditure for the first ten months of the financial year reached 7.21 trillion rupees, or 76% of the annual target, surpassing the 5.70 trillion rupees spent in the same period the previous year.To address the fiscal deficit, India has revised its target for the current financial year, ending on March 31, to 5.8% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), reducing it by 10 basis points. Furthermore, the government aims to bring down the deficit to 5.1% in the following financial year.

Global Shorts
February 26, 2024
0

China’s new home prices extend declines despite policy support

 China’s new home prices slowed their month-on-month declines in January with the biggest cities seeing some stabilisation, but the nationwide downward trend persisted despite Beijing’s efforts to revive demand.New home prices fell 0.3% month-on-month in January after dipping 0.4% in December, according to  calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data on Friday.China has been ramping up measures to arrest a property downturn, including ordering state banks to boost lending to residential projects under a “whitelist” mechanism. More big cities including Shanghai have also eased purchase curbs to lure homebuyers.Last month, home prices in tier-one cities fell 0.3% on month, smaller than their 0.4% decline in December, partly due to additional support measures including a reduction in down-payments.Among 70 cities surveyed by NBS, Shanghai saw the biggest month-on-month increase with a rise of 0.4%, while the remaining three tier-one cities – Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen – posted smaller home prices declines than most tier-two and tier-three centres.The number of cities that saw monthly price falls in January also decreased, but the overall market remained on a clear downtrend with buyer sentiment still very weak.From a year earlier, home prices fell 0.7%, marking the sharpest drop in 10 months. That was despite a low statistical base in January 2023 when prices dropped 1.5% year-on-year due to COVID-19 disruptions.Nie Wen, an economist at Hwabao Trust, said home price declines could persist.”It may take more than a year for the entire property market to fully recover and rebound,” Nie said.Central bank data released on Feb. 9 showed household loans, mostly mortgages, climbed to 980.1 billion yuan in January, far more than 222.1 billion yuan in December.However, Nie said people are not using such loans to buy homes, but rather for personal consumption.Residents will invest in the medium to long term, including buying property, only when their income expectations improve, he added.The property market has struggled to stabilise having languished since 2021 due to a series of defaults among overleveraged developers.As a result, policymakers have continued to roll out measures to boost market confidence.The country’s central bank on Tuesday announced its biggest ever reduction in the benchmark mortgage rate, although analysts believe its impact on home price will be limited given existing mortgage holders will not benefit until next year.”It will take some time for homebuyers’ incomes and confidence, and overall demand to recover in the property sector, which is still in the process of gradually bottoming out,” said Zhang Dawei, an analyst at property agency Centaline.

Technical Analysis
February 26, 2024
0

Gold Trend 26/02

The expectation of the Fed’s interest rate cuts continues to support the fundamentals of the gold price. However, since the market kept delaying the rate cuts schedule without significant economic news, gold was traded sideways above 2020 last week. More news is expected this week, with the US announcing durable goods orders, 4Q GDP, PCE inflation, and manufacturing PMI. Regardless of whether the data is better or worse than expectations, the daily price fluctuations of gold should be widened toward around the $20 range. Considering the current market sentiment, unless these data significantly exceed expectations, it will not be easy for gold to break free from the current sideway sentiment. Therefore, we can continue to take advantage of the 2015-2040 range this week.

1hr chart – Last week, the daily price fluctuations of gold expanded from a narrow range at the beginning of the week to a broader USD 25 range (1) near the week’s end. The market dynamics should be similar to last Fri. on data release days this week. The resistance zone around 2035-2040 is still valid, and the day trading strategy should continue to be based on the range of 2015-40.

Daily Chart – After the rejection of 2041 on Friday, the rebounding cycle from the bottom of the downward channel(3) is getting close to an end. Short-selling near 2040 in the next 1-2 days will be ideal if the gold price is to touch 2040 again. Once the price falls below the 20-day ma(4) near the end of this week, the adjustment target can be set at 2010 or even lower for next week.

S-T ressitance 3

2045

S-T ressitance 2

2040

S-T ressitance 1

2035

Market price

2031

S-T support 1

2030

S-T support 2

2025

S-T support 3

2018-20

P. To

Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

Technical Analysis
February 19, 2024
0

Gold Trend 19/02

Gold price rallied from a 3-month low last week. The US core inflation rate came in higher than expected, causing the gold price to break below the critical support level of 2000 and drop close to 1980. However, the release of the disappointing US retail sales data pushed the gold price back above 2000 (1) on Thu., ending the week near 2013. The main event on the economic calendar this week will be the release of the US Fed. Meeting minutes on Wed. Not expecting any surprising content, the dominant factors will remain to be “observing the data,” “waiting for more evidence,” and “the timing of rate cuts being slower than market expectations,” which are mostly bearish for gold, pulling the gold price down in S-T.

1-hour chart – An S-T upward channel(3) has formed in the past 24 hours. At the Asian session today, the gold price has broken through the previously mentioned downward resistance(2) and resistance zone (2.1). There are signs of accelerating buying pressure, and the price has already moved above the channel(3). The S-T target can be set at last Tue’s high near 2028(4), where the next upside target is at the resistance zone (5). With the US holiday on Monday, the market volume may be reduced. Tentatively, the trading range for this week can be set between 2000-40.

Daily Chart – Last week’s downward channel (7) is still valid, and some S-T resistance from the 20-day MA(6) is expected. The overall structure has transformed from a sideways consolidation (8) to a downward correction (7) after the release of US inflation data last week.

S-T ressitance 3

2030

S-T ressitance 2

2023

S-T ressitance 1

2020

Market price

2018

S-T support 1

2015

S-T support 2

2010

S-T support 3

2002

P. To

Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

Technical Analysis
February 12, 2024
0

Gold trend 12/02

Keep an eye on the gold price for a downward adjustment after the US CPI this week.

The gold market was relatively calm last week; the trading volume of COMEX gold futures noticeably declined, dropping from an average daily volume of over 200,000 contracts in Jan. to only 140,000 since the beginning of the week. Adding that no significant economic data was being released, the price mainly bounced within the range of 2020-2040(1). As expected, we hope everyone took advantage of the situation✊. The trend hasn’t changed much after a week of sideways movement. The key focus this week, without a doubt, is the US CPI data on Tuesday. I expect the data to push the gold price higher towards the resistance zone around 2035-2040(3). Whether it can jump across 2050 will very much depend on whether the data release brings any surprises. On the other hand, according to CME’s FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in March has decreased to around 60%, so the chances of gold reaching new highs in the S-T are slim. The S-T price will likely continue oscillating within the sideway range… but still be mindful of a potential deeper consolidating cycle.

1-hour chart – We can continue utilizing the 2020-40(1) range for S-T. Keep an eye on the downward resistance line formed last week(2). If the price breaks above this resistance line within the next 48 hours, it will trigger a round of buying orders, and the price may reach once again the 2040 resistance zone (3). The key support level below is at 2015.

Daily chart – Although the upward trendline (4) is still valid, the probability of a rate cut in May is declining. Unless US inflation significantly slows down in the next two weeks, it will be difficult for the gold price to maintain its current upward movement above the trendline(4). If the gold price falls below the support line (4) in this week, it will trigger a round of selling, and the price is likely to test the bottom of the 2002-2065 range (5) again.

S-T ressitance 3

2040

S-T ressitance 2

2035

S-T ressitance 1

2030

Market price

2024

S-T support 1

2020

S-T support 2

2015

S-T support 3

2008-10

P. To

Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.