English

Gold prices have retreated from the high over the past two days. Yesterday, after the release of US retail sales data, it broke below last week’s low at 2013 (1), reaching a recent bottom of 2001 and the day ended at 2005.

1-hour chart – The trading range mentioned on Monday (2015-2065) was completed before yesterday’s US session. Influenced by the release of US data, prices fell below last week’s low (1). The support at 2000 is still relatively strong. Therefore, I expect the price to be bounded between 2000-20(2) in the next 24 hours. Unless the price breaks below the key support level at 2000, the overall trading pattern will likely be based on the expanded range of 2000-2065 (3).

Daily chart – The trend has been weak after a consecutive two-day decline of over $20, and it has breached the support zone of 2015-2022(4). With yesterday’s closing price near the daily low, the price action may suggest that there is still a chance of testing the 2000 level again today. Be alert; if it clears the buying orders at the support of 2000, the next target can be set around 1980 (5).

Weekly chart – The market is still focused on how soon the Fed will begin its first rate cut. According to CME’s FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in March has dropped from 70% at the beginning of the week to only 60% now. It is important to pay attention to upcoming US data releases and the post-meeting statement from the Federal Reserve in January over the next few weeks. If US data continues to show strength, the timing of a rate cut may be delayed, and there could be a potential adjustment to lower levels in the M-T gold price (6).

S-T ressitance 3

2030

S-T ressitance 2

2020-22

S-T ressitance 1

2010-13

Market price

2008

S-T support 1

2000

S-T support 2

1995

S-T support 3

1990

P. To

Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.

Gold pulled back from its recent high last week, rejected by 2078 early during Monday’s US session. It cleared the 2050(1) support on Wed., triggering a round of selling and falling to an early weekly low of 2030. The price stayed within the range of 2035-2050, waiting for the release of US job data. When the data was announced, there was an increase in volatility; however, the closing price didn’t show any significant changes.

1-hour chart – Gold price is still fluctuating within the range of 2035-2050 after the US job data. In the past 48 trading hours, an S-T support has formed, and traders can consider utilizing the triangle pattern(2). Expect a breakout within the next 24 hours. The key event for this week will be the release of US core inflation data on Thursday.

Daily chart – A strong US job data last Friday has led to a strong US dollar punching the gold prices lower. On the other hand, it also reinforced expectations of an early interest rate cut, indicating a potential “soft landing” for the US economy, lifting the gold price up. The market as a result still lacks a clear direction. The 20-day MA(4) remains critical; and the previously mentioned upward support line (6) is still valid, and attention should be given to the larger triangle pattern on the daily chart (5) this week. Within the next 5-7 days, it is crucial for gold to break above the resistance zone of 2070-2080; if it fails to do so, the price will escape the upward support (6), and the overall structure on the daily chart will enter a sideways pattern.

S-T ressitance 3

2055-1

S-T ressitance 2

2050

S-T ressitance 1

2046

Market price

2045

S-T support 1

2044

S-T support 2

2039-40

S-T support 3

2035

P. To

Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.

Expect the price to consolidate further in S-T before the trading volume returns from the holiday.

1-hour chart – Gold prices reached a recent high of 2088 in early trading last Thu. However, it failed to hold above 2080. After the price escaped from the uptrend channel(1) at the end of last week, gold formed an S-T downward channel(2) in the past 48 trading hours. The price has departed from the downward trend (2) early in the Asian session today, indicating an S-T rebound. After touching 2070, expect the price to be bounded by 2050-70.

Daily Chart – The overall trading volume in the gold market has been low since Dec. 20th. Without significant trading volume driving, the gold price failed to hold above 2081(4), and experienced a round of profit-taking during this holiday period. The resistance zone remains between 2070-2075. Unless the price can clear this resistance, we can expect the price to consolidate further. Support levels to watch below include the 20-day MA(5) and the support line (6). Gold needs to wait for a high-volume environment in order for it to surge higher. Keeping an eye on the release of US employment data at the end of this week.

S-T ressitance 3

2080-1

S-T ressitance 2

2075

S-T ressitance 1

2070-72

Market price

2069

S-T support 1

2060

S-T support 2

2055

S-T support 3

2050

P. To

Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.

After the Fed. Meeting last week, gold climbed above 2000, while the market refocused on an early rate cut next year. Powell’s dovish comments further tuned the market’s sentiments; the latest CME FedWatch tools indicate that there is currently a close to 70% chance of a 1/4 basis point rate cut next March, while there is almost 95% chance of a 1/4 basis point rate cut in May next year. On the day of the Fed meeting, gold prices rose nearly $50(1), and technically, it is currently neutralizing the selling pressure that occurred from the 2146 drop on December 4th.

1-hour chart – In the past 48 hours, gold prices have been oscillating within the 2020-50 range(2). There hasn’t been a significant trading volume that would lead to a breakout from the range. Until gold can break free from this range, take advantage of the S-T range(2). There haven’t been any important economic data releases at the beginning of this week. However, if further consolidation occurs later this week, the next range to watch out for would be between 2000-20(4). The descending trend line(3) still needs confirmation but can still serve as a reference for S-T strategies.

Daily chart – Currently, gold prices are finding support at 2017 – 20 MA(5). There is still relatively strong selling pressure around the 2035-47 range (6). For S-T trading on the daily chart, 2017-47 should be the range for now. If the gold price can close within or above the 2035-47 range by the end of this week, it would be the first signal that gold prices are preparing to test a new high.

S-T ressitance 3

2015

S-T ressitance 2

2010

S-T ressitance 1

2007

Market price

2002

S-T support 1

2000

S-T support 2

1994-5

S-T support 3

1990

P. To

Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.

The downward trend is still dominating. Keep an eye out this week for the US CPI and the Fed. Meeting.

Gold took advantage of better-than-expected employment data in the US market last Friday, finally escaping the 2020-40(1) zone. The price hit a daily low of 1994 and closed at 2004 before the weekend, experiencing a $24 drop throughout the day.

1-hour chart – After experiencing extreme volatility last Monday, gold prices have been claimed throughout last week. Following the 2020(1) support level breach, prices have stepped to the next range of 2000-20(2). The support level is now at 2000, with a short-term rebound target around 2018-20. Until a bottoming signal emerges, the initial downside target is around 1980, with the key focus on Wed’s Federal meeting.

Daily chart – After breaking out of the ascending channel (4) last Friday, we can expect a round of selling in S-T. The resistance is currently at 20 MA(5), while the downside target is around 1978(7) for a 50% retracement. Last Monday’s topping signal(6) continues to dominate the daily chart trend and needs to be digested further in the market. The basic structure needs to be adjusted toward near 1910-40.

S-T ressitance 3

2047

S-T ressitance 2

2038-40

S-T ressitance 1

2030-31

Market price

2021

S-T support 1

2017

S-T support 2

2007-10

S-T support 3

2000

P. To

Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

場外式黃金/白銀交易的風險:
Service relating to Over-the-counter (OTC) Gold Bullion/Silver trading is provided by MOL. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion trading carries a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. OTC Gold/Silver Bullion is not regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (""SFC"") and therefore trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion will not be subject to rules or regulations promulgated by the SFC. Before deciding to trade OTC Gold/Silver Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain losses in excess of your deposited fund or even more in extreme circumstances and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading OTC Gold/Silver Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require.