English

Gold fell to a 2-week low of 2391 at the beginning of last week, but buying has resumed after a weaker-than-expected US GDP Q1 data, leading the price to reach 2352 before the US session on Friday. There were no surprises in the release of the U.S. inflation figures on that day; therefore, the market was relatively quiet before the weekend. Two major U.S. economic news are expected this week: the Fed. meeting on May 1st and the U.S. employment figures on Friday. As geopolitical risks in the Middle East fade out, the U.S. interest rate trend will now become the focal point of gold traders. According to CME FedWatch, 99.5% of the chances that the Fed. will keep interest rates unchanged this week (Unchanged – 97% in June / Unchanged – 68% in July). Expect the market to stay in a tight range before the Fed. meeting. If the Fed. announcement leans toward a more hawkish tone, just like Powell’s speech 2 weeks back; some more selling momentum will add to the gold price.

1-Hr Chart—Gold prices broke out from the S-T uptrend channel(1.1) in the Asian session early Monday. As the price escape channel(1), the upward momentum is now slowing down. Take advantage of the 2318-55(2) range in S-T until the Fed. meeting. If gold prices fall below the 2318-28 support zone earlier than expected, the next support level will be at 2300, and the descending channel (3) will dominate the trend for the rest of the week.

Daily Chart – The price fell back below the 20-day MA(5) after the rejection of the 10-day MA(4) last Friday, and the short-selling pressure has been increasing since then. The Fed announcement should dominate the gold price trend in the coming weeks; be patient with the news and the breakout caused by it. Before the next major move, trade the 2290-2351(6) range. If gold prices fall further, the next target will be near 2260(7).

P. To

The rapid retraction from the new high suggests the gold price has entered a short-term correction period.

Gold reached a new all-time high of 2431 last Friday after the US market opened, but the price quickly retreated. It lost key support of 2400 and 2380, falling back to the bottom support of Thursday near 2330, ending the weekly at 2343 with a slight increase of 13 dollars. The market had been anticipating retaliatory actions from Iran following the attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, creating a relatively tense environment that led to the climb in gold prices in the past two weeks. There was noticeable profit-taking in the market, coincidentally 24 hours before Iran’s retaliation. After the long-awaited Iran’s retaliatory action, the risk sentiment decreased abruptly; although gold opened with a gap of around 10 dollars on Monday’s Asian session, the movement remained relatively calm. The S-T upward trend began to slow down after the rapid retracement on Friday. At this point, we can expect a range-bound consolidation to begin to form this week.

1-Hr Chart – The gold price has been steadily climbing along the upward trend channel(1) since it broke through the 2300 resistance at the night of the non-farm payroll at the beginning of the month. The price is still sitting within the upward channel(1). However, S-T resistance is expected around 2375-2380 after the market experienced significant volatility on Friday. For now, the trading range for this week can be set at around 2318-2380(2).

Daily Chart – After the reversal in gold price last Friday, there is a clear indication of a potential peak (3). As long as the closing price in the next two days remains below 2373 (4), a more noticeable correction is likely to occur. The initial target for this correction can be set around the 20-day moving average (5).

Monthly Chart – It is important to note that the gold price is approaching the upper boundaries of the long-term upward channels (6) and (7). For the upward trend to continue, the gold price must break through the resistance line at the top of the channels. Otherwise, a correction in the overall trend may be needed.

S-T ressitance 3

2380

S-T ressitance 2

2370-72

S-T ressitance 1

2365

Market price

2359

S-T support 1

2350-52

S-T support 2

2345

S-T support 3

2338-40

P. To

Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

Following the Fed meeting, gold reached a new all-time high of 2222 last week. However, it failed to stay above 2200 and retraced quickly below the previous high of 2195 within 24 hours. This Friday is a US holiday, but the inflation data(PCE price index) will still be released. Make sure you pay close attention to market volatility at the late Friday session and the early Monday Asian session, and exercise caution in managing risks.

1-hr chart – The price broke through the S-T resistance(1) last week and reached our target range of 2185-2190 (2). Although it subsequently reached a new high, the price is now falling back to 2147-90(3). The resistance zone of 2186-90(2) is still valid. Take advantage of the rebound driven by the newly formed upward channel(4) at the beginning of this week, and expect the price to be bound within 2147-90 (3) in S-T until another news breaks out.

Daily chart – After the quick pull-back after the Fed. Meeting last week, a reserval signal(5) has appeared. Unless the gold price can close above 2190 on the daily chart, an S-T consolidation period is likely to occur in the next two weeks. Again, 2147 is the key support level, once its clear the next support will be at the 20-day MA.

S-T ressitance 3

2190

S-T ressitance 2

2185

S-T ressitance 1

2180

Market price

2175

S-T support 1

2168

S-T support 2

2165

S-T support 3

2155

P. To

Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

After reaching a new high of 2195, the gold price stayed sideways between 2155-85(1) last week. This week’s only major event will be the Fed meeting. Following the slight rebound in US core CPI data last week, expect the post-Fed meeting announcement to lean towards a hawkish stance, which could have a bearish impact on the gold price.

1-hr Chart – The gold price is still bounded within the range of 2155-85 (3), and it is currently trading under the S-T resistance line (2) that has been in place for the past few trading days. If the critical support level of 2147-2150(1) is breached, the next downside target can be set around 2120(4).

Daily Chart – Structurally, there hasn’t been any significant change on the daily chart, with the upward channel(5) remaining valid. The gold price is still standing above the previous high of 2147(7). If the buying support from the previous high of 2147(7) is cleared, a major correction toward 2120 should occur and pay attention to the next support at the 20-day MA(6).

S-T ressitance 3

2168

S-T ressitance 2

2160

S-T ressitance 1

2155

Market price

2152

S-T support 1

2147-50

S-T support 2

2140

S-T support 3

2130

P. To

Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver (“Bullion”) trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.